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December 6-7: Rainy Frontal Passage or a Wintry Wave?

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah I think that map is probably the prudent way to go. To be honest, we probably won't know much more until almost 00z when we can look at the RAOBS.

 

I do agree there is some potential for a 6" jackpot somewhere... I'm just not sure where that is. 

 

 

Scott looking at What has fallen in SE Illinois as well as the VERY localized narrow stripe of good accums across Indiana and Ohio do you think that this band is going to be similar in SNE /S. CNE  as far as sharp cut offs on both northern and southern ends.....and we really won't know where that will set up exactly....(when a 20 mile shift can be difference between 4 inches and a inch.

 

I guess my point and this is what I was trying to emphasize is that I think there is potentially a much bigger "surprise potential" tonite for some areas to get screwed and others to get "much more". I mean to a degree....i.e someone near boston and just SW or so could squeak out a 4-5 while someone near Ray gets 1.5 ....it just depends on how fast the BL and warm nose cools and/or  WRT to getting heavy precip (and it's location). I think most everyone should be on their toes tonite for between 1-5 inches of snow with 4-8 possible from Litchfield hills up thru KPSF even if currently best spot looks to be Route 2 area W-E.

 

nice strip of 5-7 inches from Tulsa over to SE MO and then some spot 10 inch amounts in SE Illiinois....prob over to parts of Indiana later nice

 

Yeah agree about the weenie stripe...although it might not be perfectly traceable to SE IL. Anyways, if I had to guess western Berks into NRN ORH county might be the spot for a few weenie totals >4-5" I feel like Middlesex county near Ray could do well and down to near BOS. It's gonna be close here....I always respect frontogenesis because it easily can help flip some to snow.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
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Things cooling off nicely here with temperatures dropping into the mid and upper 30s. Not seeing any reasons to budge on my forecast of 4-6" for most of the Berkshires and Taconics. Maybe someone up at 2K can pull off 7". Generally thinking 1-3" for lower Pioneer Valley, 2-4" above NoHo. 3-5" for MPM's area. Albany area looks like 2-4".

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted

Things cooling off nicely here with temperatures dropping into the mid and upper 30s. Not seeing any reasons to budge on my forecast of 4-6" for most of the Berkshires and Taconics. Maybe someone up at 2K can pull off 7". Generally thinking 1-3" for lower Pioneer Valley, 2-4" above NoHo. 3-5" for MPM's area. Albany area looks like 2-4".

Looks perfect to me.  Good luck! 

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

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I can't put it on air but I use it for blogs/social media. 

 

The snowfall map I posted before we added a part on there for "forecast confidence" as a way to explicitly express uncertainty. 

 

Do you mean you can't put up a graphic that says what your forecast confidence is?  I would think that the public would love that but I don't know anything about broadcast meteorology.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Do you mean you can't put up a graphic that says what your forecast confidence is?  I would think that the public would love that but I don't know anything about broadcast meteorology.

 

We're putting the "forecast confidence" part on the air... I like it... I hope the public does as well.

 

I meant I don't put my probabilistic forecast on the air because it's way too confusing to digest in a short period of time. The map I posted is in... the graph is out. 

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

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We're putting the "forecast confidence" part on the air... I like it... I hope the public does as well.

 

I meant I don't put my probabilistic forecast on the air because it's way too confusing to digest in a short period of time. The map I posted is in... the graph is out. 

 

You're 100% right.  When watching with my dad, if the TV met hasn't said what the weather will be like tomorrow within the first 30 seconds --- he yells at the TV.  I love 4 minute weather segments with Burbank, most just want to know if it will rain, if so, when.

 

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

GFS has some really sneaky warm layers around 700mb tonight.

 

850 line jockeys are going to be in for a rude awakening when they're pinging sleet and expecting dendrites. 

I think those jockeys are counting on a OMEGA burst flipping them ............when does the sneaky 7H layer go below 0c for say ORH, or KBED if you could kind sir.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
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This really could go either way for that area...but I'm not sure I wanna be on here if a certain poster does less than expected while Will to radarman to MPM all see 4-5" wet picturesque snow.

 

 

To respond to the subtle but not so subtle trollers., I'm only expecting 1-2 spot 3 in my area

 

I'm thinking my weenie spot of a sugarbush in Union will do relatively well at 1,000-1,200'.  It's right near the border so it would have the best chance in our neck of the woods.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

We're putting the "forecast confidence" part on the air... I like it... I hope the public does as well.

 

I meant I don't put my probabilistic forecast on the air because it's way too confusing to digest in a short period of time. The map I posted is in... the graph is out. 

 

Got it. I missed the probabilistic graph and yeah, that's too complicated for the masses.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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I'm thinking my weenie spot of a sugarbush in Union will do relatively well at 1,000-1,200'. It's right near the border so it would have the best chance in our neck of the woods.

Easily the best location for this event in CT east of the river, but isn't it always? Haha. You need to move there.

And I think 1-2" with a shot at 3" is reasonable for Blizz...I could've sworn he said 3-5" "for all" earlier. But that may have been interpreting a model verbatim and not his forecast.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted

My thoughts.. 

Boston: c-1"

Worcester:1-2"

Lawrence:2-3"

Hartford:1-2"

MPM/Hubbdave:2-4"

Tolland:1-2"

Ray:1-2"

Scott:c-1"

 

Basically anyone north of the pike with a little elevations away from the city seem to have a shot at 2-4". Boston will struggle in this setup to see much especially within the city. Suburbs like Jerry in Brookline and Don in Arlington Heights may see a couple inches. Difficult to guess exact amounts due to the sneaky warm layers that may come through at times aloft further north than originally thought.

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