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December 6-7: Rainy Frontal Passage or a Wintry Wave?


moneypitmike

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Man that's a pretty short window. Little margin for error

 

 

Yep everything collapses SE pretty darn fast late tonight. The precip is fairly intense while its doing it though, so if you can catch the last 2 hours as snow, then pulling off an inch or more is possible. The areas further north that can flip to snow by 10pm or so will probably crack advisory amounts.

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that what i figured, damn

 

Yeah I just pulled up the 6z GFS BUFKIT sounding for Canaan and it looks like SNPL to +SN. 

 

There's also a conditionally unstable layer near the snow growth zone (not quite a MAUL but theta-e does decrease with height) so that's a positive too. 

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Yep.

 

I guess if it's conditionally unstable (and the atmosphere is saturated) by definition it is a MAUL. So yeah - we have that going for us.

 

It will just be a race to get that cold in here. There's some sneaky warmth at 750-825mb that may ping away for a while. 

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Yep everything collapses SE pretty darn fast late tonight. The precip is fairly intense while its doing it though, so if you can catch the last 2 hours as snow, then pulling off an inch or more is possible. The areas further north that can flip to snow by 10pm or so will probably crack advisory amounts.

Hopefully it works out for snow. Maybe it flips a little earlier and we get something decent. Could very well flip late and we just get flakes

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I guess if it's conditionally unstable (and the atmosphere is saturated) by definition it is a MAUL. So yeah - we have that going for us.

 

It will just be a race to get that cold in here. There's some sneaky warmth at 750-825mb that may ping away for a while. 

 

Look how the NAM cools 850s to the south coast in a burst of precip and then sort of stops the cooling on the next panel from like 06z to 09z? That tells me the lift is crucial to the flip to snow as well. It looks like this lift is best from near the nrn CT to BOS area and esp north of the pike. It wouldn't shock me if areas near ans south of the pike flip to snow and sleet as the heavier lift comes in and then rain...only to flip back again as it gradually gets colder. So, if we can good lift here, that may surprise some. I think this has a good signature from Will and Ray on north of getting advisory snows. Could even extend south of the NAM is right.

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Look how the NAM cools 850s to the south coast in a burst of precip and then sort of stops the cooling on the next panel from like 06z to 09z? That tells me the lift is crucial to the flip to snow as well. It looks like this lift is best from near the nrn CT to BOS area and esp north of the pike. It wouldn't shock me if areas near ans south of the pike flip to snow and sleet as the heavier lift comes in and then rain...only to flip back again as it gradually gets colder. So, if we can good lift here, that may surprise some. I think this has a good signature from Will and Ray on north of getting advisory snows. Could even extend south of the NAM is right.

awwww wham bam thank you NAM pic.twitter.com/OWAVxCmfji

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