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December 6-7: Rainy Frontal Passage or a Wintry Wave?


moneypitmike

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I like my location for this event. A nice anafrontal wave with NW flow at the surface. I can see why ALY went with winter storm watches, although it may be a little overdone. I think a 4-6" event seems like a decent possibility for the Berkshires and Taconics. Someone could weenie out with a 7" total somewhere if we can get some good omega. 2K would be the best spot for this. MPM probably comes in with 3-5", the CT River valley 1-3".

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That is really going all out. You have to have 50% confidence or better for 7"+ for more than half of the watch area to issue that.

It's a minimal warning for 4-8 inches, really should be an advisory if you're strictly following the criteria which ALY clearly is not. Perhaps because it's the first real event of the season they bend the rules a little as we often see with the first snow advisory for an inch of snow.

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