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December 6-7: Rainy Frontal Passage or a Wintry Wave?


moneypitmike

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yea very much a weenie map, no chance at them verifying I think.

The algorithm might be counting sleet as snow.  But I don't think the wunderground snowfall maps are so terrible.  Certainly not as bad as others I've seen.  If the warmest layer is near 850mb, then it could be close to right.  1-3" for most of SNE with 4-6" in the hills and isolated spots in the Berks 6+.  The Euro has gotten wetter and is now basically in line with the NAM and RGEM for QPF.  But it remains on the cold side of guidance... hence a snowy solution.  If you believe the Euro, you gotta forecast some kind of accumulating snow tomorrow night almost everywhere (except maybe the south coast).  Personally I would go slightly more conservative than the Euro and keep an eye on model/radar trends tomorrow, but to me this is rapidly becoming a legit snow threat.

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There is 0 percent chance or 1 inch of snow anywhere south of Worcester? I think that's pretty interesting

thing is...it's a really short window of time for precip to fall as snow for a big chunk of the area. notice how even on the cape the precip is done by 12z. a lot of the area...it's 9z. assuming it is perfectly time to flip at the 850 0C line (which it won't be) that gives a short window. it could come down as sleet before that time as the 925 to 8h layer looks chilly...but from 8h to 7h it's still mild...and the SBL is also "warm". 

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It's a unique relationship.  Like, when we tell him something is going to happen...he ignores...gives a P&C forecast post...and then guess what...it happens.

they nailed the last one. And, nit a live affair, merely pointing out what they said. I know ic some people who inst on posting jb tweets. That's a marriage made in heaven. :)

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gfs looks good ct border north

 

Its a short window though....but it looks like a nice 2-3 hour burst perhaps. ORH is marginal snow by 06z and then maybe another 2 tenths falls. But if you lose an extra hour or two to sleet, then you end up with like 0.7" of snow instead of 2".

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they nailed the last one. And, nit a live affair, merely pointing out what they said. I know ic some people who inst on posting jb tweets. That's a marriage made in heaven. :)

 

they nailed the last one. And, nit a live affair, merely pointing out what they said. I know ic some people who inst on posting jb tweets. That's a marriage made in heaven. :)

 

Which one..the one when we said you'll have snow and ice?

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Seems like everything is in agreement for a decent snowfall for most except the GFS ..which again is the outlier.  I know which one not to use

 

 

GFS isn't really an outlier. The NAM is right now being the warmest (and probably the wettest)

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Oh , I thought someone posted the Nam was much colder at 18z

 

Colder than its 12z run, but it is still fairly warm compared to the Euro especially...GFS is kind of in between, same with RGEM though it cooled again at 18z, starting to look more like the Euro.

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SREFs are getting more and more bullish for SNE....NAM is coming in a little colder again, but still not quite as cool as the Euro and company:

 

f12s39.gif

I think I sit in a pretty good spot here. Would like to be a little bit further north and west. Looks like rain to start then maybe a good period of IP and potential to finish off with 1-2" of snow.

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