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December 2013 Obs


metalicwx366

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Let me go on the record by saying I'm tired of this fog and overcast along with escarpment. We have had it since Monday.

 

I guess I'm a little weird (aren't we all), but the fog and clouds have made it seem like winter, so I've kind of enjoyed it.  Obviously, the temps don't match winter temps, but it has seemed fitting for this time leading up to Christmas.

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No clue where to post this these days but this looks like a good place.

 

Slight risk of severe weather across a good portion of the south this afternoon and evening.

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST LA   THROUGH CENTRAL MS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL AL...   ...SYNOPSIS...   IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PERSIST   OVER WRN CONUS.  LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO   EJECT AND DAMPEN.  FAIRLY STRAIGHT STREAM OF FAST MID-UPPER FLOW IS   MAINTAINED FROM SRN HIGH PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES.   AT SFC...12Z ANALYSIS SHOWED INTENSE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OH SWWD   ACROSS WRN PORTIONS KY/TN...SRN AR...AND SOUTH TX.  BY 00Z...FRONT   SHOULD REACH...WV...NWRN AL...SWRN LA...AND DEEP S TX. EXPECT SRN   SEGMENT OF FRONT TO DECELERATE UNDER NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW   ALOFT...WITH BOUNDARY REACHING NEW ENGLAND...MD...SRN   APPALACHIANS...AND S-CENTRAL LA BY END OF PERIOD.   ...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST REGION TO ERN KY/SWRN VA...   SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DIED DOWN SLIGHTLY ALONG/AHEAD   OF SFC COLD FRONT...FROM SRN OH TO WRN TN.  THIS BAND WILL TRANSLATE   EWD IN STEP WITH FRONT AND SHOULD BACKBUILD SWWD AS INDIVIDUAL   CONVECTIVE COMPONENTS MOVE NEWD...FOR NET EXPANSION THROUGH MUCH OF   TODAY. HOWEVER...AREAS FROM NORTHEAST LA, THROUGH MS DELTA REGION   SHOULD EXPERIENCE SUFFICIENT PREFRONTAL SFC THETAE ADVECTION TO   RENDER SFC-BASED INFLOW PARCELS...AMIDST SFC DEW POINTS MOSTLY 60S F   WITH SOME 70S NEAR GULF COAST. MORNING HEATING IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER   THAN ANTICIPATED.  THIS FACTOR WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT   ENOUGH TO RENDER MLCAPE ABOUT 1000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS MS/AL.  CAPE   FIELD WILL DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND GET NARROWER IN BREADTH WITH   NWD EXTENT.  35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 100-200 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH   ARE FCST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF FRONT.   ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE   DEFINITIVELY RULED OUT...THUS MRGL PROBABILITIES.  HOWEVER...OVERALL   ORGANIZATION/COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AMIDST WEAK LAPSE   RATES/BUOYANCY...LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR   ASCENT...PRESENCE OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR BEHIND SFC   FRONT...NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY POSITIVE MID-UPPER HEIGHT CHANGES...AND   FLOW ALOFT BEING PARALLEL TO FRONT RESULTING IN SLGT NET ANAFRONTAL   CHARACTER.   INITIALLY SEPARATE AREA OF MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION AND SHOWERS MAY   DEVELOP/EXPAND PERSIST FROM GULF NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MS AND   AL...PERHAPS WRN GA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN ERN PORTIONS OF   LONGSTANDING LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUME...E OF EDGE OF   EML-RELATED CAPPING LAYER EVIDENT IN 12Z JAN/LIX RAOBS.  WHILE   BUOYANCY DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH IDEAL THERMAL LAYERS FOR LTG   PRODUCTION IS IN DOUBT...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM ARE POSSIBLE.  OCNL   LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL STORM-SCALE ROTATION ALSO MAY DEVELOP GIVEN FCST   VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND RESULTANT PROGS OF 100-200 J/KG OF   0-1 KM SRH.  INCREASED HEATING AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER BULK SHEAR WILL   WARRANT A LOW THREAT FOR TORNADO.

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 At the Savannah airport, the highest today was 82. That is 3 above the record for the date of 79 and tied for the third warmest in Dec. The warmest is 83, set twice. Savannah records go back to 1874. Yesterday was 80 and not quite a record.

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Look at Charlotte's low for Friday morning. If that isn't a record high minimum temperature then I bet it's pretty darn close.

.http://www.wxjordan.com/images/homepagegraphics/2013December/4/Slide7.GIF

 

 
Charlotte only dropped to a low of 64° this morning setting a record max low. The previous record was 62° set in 1912‪#‎cltwx‬
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Katl low only down to 69 so far but will have to see if that holds up. Between timing of cold front tonight and rain falling before, it will be difficult. However, if so, wow! In Savannah, good shot at record for date (80) and some shot at Dec. record of 83. Exciting times!

Edit: 4/18-11/3 is the period for which katl has had lows of 69+ recorded. So, if somehow the low of 69 were to hold up at katl, it would be an amazing record. It would be over one month later than the previous record high low of 69!! I feel the odds are low at this time. If it can stay at 68, even that would tie the record highest low for all of December.

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 Ok, so it is already 79 at 11 AM at Savannah with mostly sunny skies (only some thin cirrus overhead) and moderate/steady warm SW winds (no cooling influence from the nearby ocean). It has risen 9 just during the prior two hours. The alltime (since 1874) December high in Savannah is 83. Does anyone want to bet against it being tied or exceeded today? I'm not betting against it!

 

**Edit: Savannah up to 81 at noon. Now only two from alltime Dec. record of 83 with mostly sunny and SW winds continuing! Going to be hard to not at least tie the record.

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 Ok, so it is already 79 at 11 AM at Savannah with mostly sunny skies (only some thin cirrus overhead) and moderate/steady warm SW winds (no cooling influence from the nearby ocean). It has risen 9 just during the prior two hours. The alltime (since 1874) December high in Savannah is 83. Does anyone want to bet against it being tied or exceeded today? I'm not betting against it!

 

**Edit: Savannah up to 81 at noon. Now only two from alltime Dec. record of 83 with mostly sunny and SW winds continuing! Going to be hard to not at least tie the record.

 

At 2 PM, the Savannah airport (KSAV) is at 83, which ties the alltime Dec. high! Will it be broken? Odds are pretty good with sunny skies continuing.

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