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December Banter

metalicwx366

By metalicwx366,
in Southeastern States

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

 Lol. Yep, time to put all of our chips on this one in 200 year or so event for far SE GA and N FL as modeled by the 12Z GFS for 1/7/14. The last time something even close to this around Jacksonville, FL, and Brunswick, GA, was almost definitely way back on January 9-11, 1800, based on everything I've read. However, that was a much longer duration. As modeled this is a less than 12 hour dump. Incredibly unrealistic but very entertaining!

 

Edit: clown maps of my provider (more accurately drawn...none of this rectangular BS) actually do show 1"+ of snow extending SW from Wilmington, NC, down the SC/Ga coasts and into N FL through Jacksonville and Gainseville and SW of there to the Gulf SE of Appalachicola. Heaviest amounts shown are a ridiculous 8-9" for Brunswick/SSI GA and a small area between Jacksonville and G'ville, FL. Those heaviest amounts for N FL would be alltime heaviest known.

 

Edit: Waycross gets 4"! Savannah/CHS 2-3".

I'm pretty sure that 8 inches in Brunswick, is one of the key signals to the initiates that the end of the world is nigh....... and most are probably  not wearing their clean Target undies :)  T

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Y'all play nice. We're on our way to becoming a "board of hate".

 

:clap:

 

Seriously this board has turned into a ****ing disaster this year. 

OK the discussion thread is a train wreck. 2009-10 and 2010-11 spoiled most on here too much.

 

How can one be spoiled by something that happened nearly 4 years ago? If anything its the cause and effect of snow deprivation.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

I think RAH received a lot of flack from the freezing rain this morning. Here is a summary they provided in there afternoon discussion: 

 

SUMMARY OF THIS MORNING: HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT TRACKED ESE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY THIS
MORNING COMBINED WITH THE THERMALLY DIRECT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SMALL
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW ALOFT ACTED TO ENHANCE SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEPARTING SFC-H85 RIDGE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FORCING
JUXTAPOSED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND PERHAPS
EXTREMELY MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE/ WERE SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIP TO DEVELOP  SHORTLY AFTER 08Z. 925-850 MB TEMPS WERE WELL
ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN WAS THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE IN MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF HWY 64. HOWEVER...A COLDER SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS IN PLACE
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 (DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF CLOUD COVER) ALLOWED FOR FREEZING RAIN
AS THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRACE AMOUNTS OF ICE
WERE REPORTED ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 64 IN MANY LOCATIONS RESULTING IN
SLICK ROADS (PRIMARILY BRIDGES/OVERPASSES) AND NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS.
IN FACT...A PORTION OF INTERSTATE 40/85 NEAR CHAPEL HILL WAS SHUT
DOWN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO ICE. AS OF
NOON...TEMPS HAD RISEN ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE AND PRECIPITATION
HAD BEGUN TO TAPER OFF AND END FROM WEST-EAST.

POST-EVENT THOUGHTS: FROM A METEOROLOGICAL STANDPOINT THIS WAS A
WEAK/BRIEF NUISANCE-TYPE EVENT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DATE (DEC 26)
AND TIME OF DAY (EARLY MORNING) THAT THE EVENT OCCURRED...THE IMPACT
WAS GREATER THAN THE METEOROLOGICAL SETUP ALONE WOULD HAVE
INDICATED. DUE TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THIS TYPE OF SUBTLE AND
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...IN WHICH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT DEPENDED
UPON A FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF FACTORS WHEREIN SUBTLE CHANGES
COULD HAVE MARKEDLY AFFECTED THE OUTCOME...IN WHICH PTYPE DEPENDED
UPON PRECISE SURFACE TEMPERATURES (THEMSELVES AFFECTED BY NUMEROUS
VARIABLES)...AND IN WHICH THE IMPACT (IF ANY) WOULD BE ENHANCED BY A
NON-METEOROLOGICAL `ANTHROPOGENIC FACTOR`...ONE CAN GAIN AN
UNDERSTANDING OF WHY SUCH EVENTS ARE OFTEN NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST. ULTIMATELY...BOTH THE METEOROLOGICAL SETUP AND THE
`ANTHROPOGENIC FACTOR` WERE CORRECTLY ASSESSED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS AND EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AS EARLY AS ~900 AM DEC 25.
 

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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

Posted
Posted

I think RAH received a lot of flack from the freezing rain this morning. Here is a summary they provided in there afternoon discussion: 

 

SUMMARY OF THIS MORNING: HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT

SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT TRACKED ESE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY THIS

MORNING COMBINED WITH THE THERMALLY DIRECT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF

A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SMALL

AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW ALOFT ACTED TO ENHANCE SOUTHERLY

LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEPARTING SFC-H85 RIDGE

ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FORCING

JUXTAPOSED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND PERHAPS

EXTREMELY MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE/ WERE SUFFICIENT FOR

PRECIP TO DEVELOP  SHORTLY AFTER 08Z. 925-850 MB TEMPS WERE WELL

ABOVE FREEZING AND RAIN WAS THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE IN MOST AREAS

SOUTH OF HWY 64. HOWEVER...A COLDER SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS IN PLACE

ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 (DUE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL

COOLING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF CLOUD COVER) ALLOWED FOR FREEZING RAIN

AS THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. TRACE AMOUNTS OF ICE

WERE REPORTED ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 64 IN MANY LOCATIONS RESULTING IN

SLICK ROADS (PRIMARILY BRIDGES/OVERPASSES) AND NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS.

IN FACT...A PORTION OF INTERSTATE 40/85 NEAR CHAPEL HILL WAS SHUT

DOWN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO ICE. AS OF

NOON...TEMPS HAD RISEN ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE AND PRECIPITATION

HAD BEGUN TO TAPER OFF AND END FROM WEST-EAST.

POST-EVENT THOUGHTS: FROM A METEOROLOGICAL STANDPOINT THIS WAS A

WEAK/BRIEF NUISANCE-TYPE EVENT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DATE (DEC 26)

AND TIME OF DAY (EARLY MORNING) THAT THE EVENT OCCURRED...THE IMPACT

WAS GREATER THAN THE METEOROLOGICAL SETUP ALONE WOULD HAVE

INDICATED. DUE TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THIS TYPE OF SUBTLE AND

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...IN WHICH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT DEPENDED

UPON A FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF FACTORS WHEREIN SUBTLE CHANGES

COULD HAVE MARKEDLY AFFECTED THE OUTCOME...IN WHICH PTYPE DEPENDED

UPON PRECISE SURFACE TEMPERATURES (THEMSELVES AFFECTED BY NUMEROUS

VARIABLES)...AND IN WHICH THE IMPACT (IF ANY) WOULD BE ENHANCED BY A

NON-METEOROLOGICAL `ANTHROPOGENIC FACTOR`...ONE CAN GAIN AN

UNDERSTANDING OF WHY SUCH EVENTS ARE OFTEN NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO

FORECAST. ULTIMATELY...BOTH THE METEOROLOGICAL SETUP AND THE

`ANTHROPOGENIC FACTOR` WERE CORRECTLY ASSESSED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST

DISCUSSIONS AND EXPLICITLY MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER

OUTLOOK AS EARLY AS ~900 AM DEC 25.

 

aka, if ground temps and air temps are below freezing, rain will freeze on contact. :P

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted
Bobbitt is annoying. He tests the waters and will vanish until activity picks back up again. His warnings are like warnings about warnings. Mods will catch on.....eventually. I take my warnings like a champ.

So basically you reincarnate?

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nrhardin

nrhardin

Posted
Posted

I think RAH received a lot of flack from the freezing rain this morning. Here is a summary they provided in there afternoon.

I think he mainly wrote it as a sort of post mortem since the event will not likely get a case study/summary. Plus there's always room to learn from the past. I'm not aware of any flack in this case though, and the "event" was discussed well in the AFDs leading up.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

I think he mainly wrote it as a sort of post mortem since the event will not likely get a case study/summary. Plus there's always room to learn from the past. I'm not aware of any flack in this case though, and the "event" was discussed well in the AFDs leading up.

I know this was very difficult for them to determine. As they stated subtle differences in the setup would cause larger precip differences. I would have done the same thing they did -- start with a hazardous Outlook and move on from there. But, a lot of "ordinary" folks (including media) would see this as a surprise and may question why this was not forecasted (say many days out).   

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

I know this was very difficult for them to determine. As they stated subtle differences in the setup would cause larger precip differences. I would have done the same thing they did -- start with a hazardous Outlook and move on from there. But, a lot of "ordinary" folks (including media) would see this as a surprise and may question why this was not forecasted (say many days out).   

 

RAH handled the nusisance event better than most WFOs would have, boardeline event, accidents on I40 happen regardless of if they highlighted ZR 4 days out or 1.  Few offices would write post synop reasoning as they did, kinda like the Ed Hochuli after a suspect flag is thrown, he tells you why it was the right call.

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