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December Banter


metalicwx366

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How are the Euro monthlies verifying so far? Remember this from September.

December: A healthy Alaskan Vortex/+EPO..zonal flow over the US, despite a -NAO.

January: A huge ridge over the west, strong -EPO type pattern with ridging from the NW US into Alaska... a significant -AO.

February: Ridge apparently retrogrades offshore, just as strong as in January. Strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO. Entire US would be cold.

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This upcoming pattern change is crap. It's just going to be in and out and the SE ridge is going to just pop right back up. The first half of January will be shot, and we'll spend the second half of the month chasing another mirage of a pattern change into February. And by the time it finally does change, we'll be dealing with a warm ground and a high sun angle and have to hope for night snow so it'll be actual snow and not rain. And we'll have to hope that it doesn't snow too early in the night so the warm ground doesn't eat it all up before we can wake up and see it. Or we could try to stay up late and see it start, only to squint at the radar for hours just hoping beyond hope that the stationary precip echoes will inch east at some point. Yep, another winter down the tubes. Merry flippin Christmas.

A little too much egg nog? There, there.... Maybe Santa will make it all better tomorrow.... :santa: 

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Not that anyone cares this morning! 

 

This alert was generated by the National Weather Service
EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)
from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.
NOUS42 KWNO 251009
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
0957Z WED DEC 25 2013

NCEP IS HAVING PROBLEMS SUBMITTING JOBS TO THE SUPERCOMPUTER
WHICH IS CAUSING THE 06 GFS TO RUN LATE AS WELL AS OTHER JOBS.
WE ARE INVESTIGATING.

SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP
 

 

Merry Christmas to everyone!

post-594-0-44706200-1387967889_thumb.jpg

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Something is screwed up. NCEP and Meteostar are not the same maps for the same model run????? Maybe I have been in the eggnog too much but NCEP 06z GFS run is showing some mega cold in the 240h timeframe 850's <-20C and Meteostar is showing -12C at the same time. ??????

MeteoStar is coordinated correctly from what I see. This is what is officially termed in the wx biz and repeatedly on this board as "stupid cold". Per MeteoStar at 6Z of 1/4/14, RDU gets down to a stupid cold -25C at 850 and ATL a stupid cold -21C!!!!! Savannah gets to a stupid cold -15C! The -21C at ATL would tie the alltime record cold 850 (records back to ~1948-1950). I suspect that -25C would be RDU's coldest though I don't know their record coldest.

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I wonder about comparing model tendencies from over a decade ago Larry?? Surely these models have been tweaked over the years. I do seem to recall a GFS cold bias over the last few years too though, maybe not to the degree of that specific case mentioned by Larry.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah, the cold bias is not nearly as bad now as it was in 2001-2. However, the question asked was whether anyone has seen colder runs of the GFS. In my opinion, those runs would count. Regardless, as I mentioned, I vaguely recall at ATL a couple of GFS runs down to around -23 to -24C at 850 well after that winter. Also, I clearly recall several runs with below zero at two meters at ATL. This one is "only" down to 3 there. This run is at 14 at Savannah. I'm nearly certain there have been several runs in the single digits there at two meters over the last 3-7 years or so.

So, this is not the coldest run for at least GA and almost certainly not for NC. However, it is stil in the stupid cold run category!

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Not that anyone cares this morning! 

 

This alert was generated by the National Weather Service

EMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)

from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.

NOUS42 KWNO 251009

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

0957Z WED DEC 25 2013

NCEP IS HAVING PROBLEMS SUBMITTING JOBS TO THE SUPERCOMPUTER

WHICH IS CAUSING THE 06 GFS TO RUN LATE AS WELL AS OTHER JOBS.

WE ARE INVESTIGATING.

SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

 

 

Merry Christmas to everyone!

attachicon.giftree_final_900x1200.jpg

Now thats a beautiful Christmas tree!

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This upcoming pattern change is crap. It's just going to be in and out and the SE ridge is going to just pop right back up. The first half of January will be shot, and we'll spend the second half of the month chasing another mirage of a pattern change into February. And by the time it finally does change, we'll be dealing with a warm ground and a high sun angle and have to hope for night snow so it'll be actual snow and not rain. And we'll have to hope that it doesn't snow too early in the night so the warm ground doesn't eat it all up before we can wake up and see it. Or we could try to stay up late and see it start, only to squint at the radar for hours just hoping beyond hope that the stationary precip echoes will inch east at some point. Yep, another winter down the tubes. Merry flippin Christmas.

Grinch, Scrooge...you're just issed because the weather gods didn't conspire to give you  everlasting fame once more :)  How much everlasting fame does one person need?  If it hurts that bad we an call the up coming sleetmageddon Cr's and Tony's Storm.  I'm easy on the fame stuff...all those cameras catching you picking your nose, and slappin' Bob.  T

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