December Banter

[superjames1992]

Clearly the torch is more likely to be right. We live in the SE. The indices are terrible and the EPO isn't going to be on our side for long. That seemed to dominate over the other indices in November as they were all unfavorable for winter weather.

 

And yet I saw three instances of wintry precip in November in a month where I rarely ever see wintry precip.

[Bevo]

Clearly the torch is more likely to be right. We live in the SE. The indices are terrible and the EPO isn't going to be on our side for long. That seemed to dominate over the other indices in November as they were all unfavorable for winter weather.

 

I disagree - hasn't been the case in the last 8 months.

[Cold Rain]

We all hear about the models this and that and switching and trust and so on....

I think the reality may be MORE that the people reading them and people posting about them are in more disagreement than the models.

There is no good reason so many people should have such polar opposite outlooks based on the SAME information. This leads me to believe that the "people factor" may be more at play recently than the "model factor". Ingredients include, but are not limited to: Egos, Stubbornness, Pride, Egos, Less Knowledge, More Knowledge, Egos, etc...

And then there's...you know...Brick. Just running his canned posting machine like a friggin' robo-dialer during an election cycle.

Agree with Stovepipe. Well said. The problem is, people (and we'll stick to the "people with knowledge" category here in order to filter out the noise) mix objective data analysis with past experience and intuition. If everyone just looked at the available data and that's it, everyone would come to the same conclusion and be correct or incorrect. But when you add experience, emotion, ego, and gut feel into it, I'm not surprised there are so many differing conclusions.

And to answer autorepeatbrickbot, of course the models flip flop. It's mathematically impossible for them to be accurate way out in time to the degree that you'd like. I don't understand how it's not possible to understand that. And people making long range forecasts are most likely going to differ in their views, if you sample enough people. Why? See previous paragraph for some possible answers. But probably the most important element is because the volume of what we know is much less than the volume of what we don't know about the weather. And that's it.

[metalicwx366]

Even if we see cold weather during the month, most of the SE will end up above average. These warm anomalies will be hard to knock out. Charlotte is +10 currently and that should increase. We are +9 but should increase also with possibly setting record highs the next few days.

[metalicwx366]

And yet I saw three instances of wintry precip in November in a month where I rarely ever see wintry precip.

Central Florida saw snow in November 2006 in a month they almost never see snow. How did DJF turn out for them? November really has no barring on what the winter will be like.

[Bevo]

Even if we see cold weather during the month, most of the SE will end up above average. These warm anomalies will be hard to knock out. Charlotte is +10 currently and that should increase. We are +9 but should increase also with possibly setting record highs the next few days.

 

You simply cannot know that.  Period.  I'm not knocking you, I'm just stating the obvious. +10 for the month of December?  Nothing prior to this month lends any credence to the reliability of these warmth progs.  The burden of proof is still on the models - they've yet to prove their case when alleging overall warmth.

 

You know I'm not dogging you here. Seriously - you and I have come a long way.  I just don't agree with you on this.

[Bevo]

Agree with Stovepipe. Well said. The problem is, people (and we'll stick to the "people with knowledge" category here in order to filter out the noise) mix objective data analysis with past experience and intuition. If everyone just looked at the available data and that's it, everyone would come to the same conclusion and be correct or incorrect. But when you add experience, emotion, ego, and gut feel into it, I'm not surprised there are so many differing conclusions.

And to answer autorepeatbrickbot, of course the models flip flop. It's mathematically impossible for them to be accurate way out in time to the degree that you'd like. I don't understand how it's not possible to understand that. And people making long range forecasts are most likely going to differ in their views, if you sample enough people. Why? See previous paragraph for some possible answers. But probably the most important element is because the volume of what we know is much less than the volume of what we don't know about the weather. And that's it.

 

I agree.  And right now, in a time of uncertainty, and having to react to the progged solutions versus the actual outcomes, past experience and intuition seems the best place to start.

[Stovepipe]

Even if we see cold weather during the month, most of the SE will end up above average. These warm anomalies will be hard to knock out. Charlotte is +10 currently and that should increase. We are +9 but should increase also with possibly setting record highs the next few days.

 

[metalicwx366]

You simply cannot know that. Period. I'm not knocking you, I'm just stating the obvious. +10 for the month of December? Nothing prior to this month lends any credence to the reliability of these warmth progs. The burden of proof is still on the models - they've yet to prove their case when alleging overall warmth.

You know I'm not dogging you here.

My bad. I meant to say most of the SE will probably end up above average.

Lol I need to relax. Winter hasn't even started yet.

[Cold Rain]

My bad. I meant to say most of the SE will probably end up above average.

Lol I need to relax. Winter hasn't even started yet.

When are you coming to Raleigh, bro? Brickster and I will take you to Snoopys for some awesome dogs.

[Bevo]

My bad. I meant to say most of the SE will probably end up above average.

Lol I need to relax. Winter hasn't even started yet.

 

I can get behind that - at least the notion that it's a possibility.  I was one of those who thought this winter would be close to average, but not a freezer.  I think December could definitely end up a little above average.  I'm just not sure we can come to that conclusion based on mid-long range data at the moment, because they've just been bad for a while now at progging warmth correctly.  It's almost as if they decided to just be the opposite of what they were with the cold the last two winters.

[Cold Rain]

It doesn't bother me one bit if December ends up above normal. If January ends up above normal, that might sting a little bit.

[Bevo]

It doesn't bother me one bit if December ends up above normal. If January ends up above normal, that might sting a little bit.

 

Hear hear! I'm kind of tired of the cold.  It's been cold and rainy since March.  I swear I heard some folks in town talking in English accents about cleaning chimneys.

[packbacker]

Interesting NAM run, RIC get's precip holed too, wonder what DT is going to say about that run.  He has been ripping every local met station in Richmond, always fun to read, although he called this ice storm 10 days ago.

[griteater]

For me there's a difference when we're talking about temperatures vs. winter storms.  It's much easier to get temperatures that are around normal with unfavorable indices or patterns...but when it comes to genuine winter storms across the bulk of the SE, normal and above average are in the same bucket, and neither of them work.  It takes temps that are below to well below average, and the associated patterns that produce those temps, in order for us to see decent winter storms here.

[Cold Rain]

Hear hear! I'm kind of tired of the cold. It's been cold and rainy since March. I swear I heard some folks in town talking in English accents about cleaning chimneys.

Haha! Offer them some tea and biscuits and they'll really feel right at home.

[Cold Rain]

Interesting NAM run, RIC get's precip holed too, wonder what DT is going to say about that run. He has been ripping every local met station in Richmond, always fun to read, although he called this ice storm 10 days ago.

You know he'll throw it out.

[Bevo]

For me there's a difference when we're talking about temperatures vs. winter storms.  It's much easier to get temperatures that are around normal with unfavorable indices or patterns...but when it comes to genuine winter storms across the bulk of the SE, normal and above average are in the same bucket, and neither of them work.  It takes temps that are below to well below average, and the associated patterns that produce those temps, in order for us to see decent winter storms here.

 

I agree with that.  I don't know if your post is in regard to my discussion, because I think we'd be talking about two different things so I won't presume.

[Cold Rain]

For me there's a difference when we're talking about temperatures vs. winter storms. It's much easier to get temperatures that are around normal with unfavorable indices or patterns...but when it comes to genuine winter storms across the bulk of the SE, normal and above average are in the same bucket, and neither of them work. It takes temps that are below to well below average, and the associated patterns that produce those temps, in order for us to see decent winter storms here.

Good post. Most winter storms here have to thread the needle. Certain patterns make the needle's eye a little bit bigger while other ones destroy the thread.

[Disc]

Interesting NAM run, RIC get's precip holed too, wonder what DT is going to say about that run.  He has been ripping every local met station in Richmond, always fun to read, although he called this ice storm 10 days ago.

 

This run of the NAM also got me thinking that a lot of forecasts for SW VA and even NC may bust bad if what the NAM scenario ends up being true.

[superjames1992]

Central Florida saw snow in November 2006 in a month they almost never see snow. How did DJF turn out for them? November really has no barring on what the winter will be like.

 

That wasn't my point.  I am just saying that we had a lot going against us, yet we connected a few times on marginal events.

 

I know early season events pretty much have no bearing on the real winter.  Just look at the snow from Hurricane Sandy and the disastrous winter that followed for many of the areas that got hit.

 

Like I've said before, we really want January/February to be rocking, if possible.  Our real sweet spot for major storms seems to be late January - very early March, IMO (although there are obvious exceptions to this like the Christmas Day Storm, 12/19/09, etc.).  Early January 2002 is another exception, too, I suppose.  Our biggest snowfall months are January and February.  The other snow months trial quite a bit behind.

 

As a side note, February seems to have been lacking lately.  February 2010 was good for those further south (and was 2" even here), but I'm having a hard time recalling a major event in February here since February 2004.

[griteater]

I agree with that.  I don't know if your post is in regard to my discussion, because I think we'd be talking about two different things so I won't presume.

 

Yeah, it's just something that comes to mind with me from time to time.  I think some of the posts I see in the threads have varying contexts in terms of whether the focus is on temperatures, or winter storms, or both.

[pcbjr]

Arctic front sweeps Key West, per AccuWeather:

 

 

Today's State Extremes State Highs: Marco Island Airport 87°F Immokalee Regional Airport 87°F Fort Myers 85°F Orlando International 84°F Winter Haven 84°F State Lows: Key West 17°F Cecil Field 53°F Gainesville 54°F Cross City 55°F Zephyrhills 55°F

 

Classic back door cold front  

[JoshM]

Sounds like Accuweather is a little lisdexic

[Bevo]

Yeah, it's just something that comes to mind with me from time to time.  I think some of the posts I see in the threads have varying contexts in terms of whether the focus is on temperatures, or winter storms, or both.

 

Gotcha. I can clearly say that my assertions are solely in the context of the "Torch" being discussed with more emphasis recently.  I simply cannot fully support the notion of a torchy December just yet, regardless of what the data is showing right now.  And it's based entirely on what I've seen for months. Just as the last two winters (especially the most recent) kept showing cold that never performed or kept getting pushed back, the progged warmth has been getting the same treatment since March/April.  And it hasn't changed yet.  I want to see it become reality a few times before I trust what the data is suggesting in regards to upcoming warm/hot temps, and I don't think anyone can be extremely confident that those torchy temps will be a certainty yet. 

 

Now, as you stated, winter storms are a different animal and discussion.

[tazaroo]

tis life in the SE. We get the colder trend and the moisture trends drier. Hopefully its wrong. Now I don't want power outages but some ice to give that winter wonderland look in the trees and clear out a few dead limbs would be great. Hopefully the moisture comes back.

[calculus1]

Even if we see cold weather during the month, most of the SE will end up above average. These warm anomalies will be hard to knock out. Charlotte is +10 currently and that should increase. We are +9 but should increase also with possibly setting record highs the next few days.

 

You simply cannot know that.  Period.  I'm not knocking you, I'm just stating the obvious. +10 for the month of December?  Nothing prior to this month lends any credence to the reliability of these warmth progs.  The burden of proof is still on the models - they've yet to prove their case when alleging overall warmth.

 

You know I'm not dogging you here. Seriously - you and I have come a long way.  I just don't agree with you on this.

 

Agreed, Bevo.  Plus, who cares if it's +10 for the month if we still get a couple decent storms, which is still quite possible.

 

In addition, you could have three hellaciously hot Waycross days (like 90+, or something) back to back to back in Charlotte in December, and that would screw the average for the month no matter what else happened.  Even if all the other days in the month were 40s or cooler, you couldn't really overcome the three 90+ days, and the month would average above normal.

[pcbjr]

Sounds like Accuweather is a little lisdexic

Dyslexic humor

[Bevo]

Agreed, Bevo.  Plus, who cares if it's +10 for the month if we still get a couple decent storms, which is still quite possible.

 

In addition, you could have three hellaciously hot Waycross days (like 90+, or something) back to back to back in Charlotte in December, and that would screw the average for the month no matter what else happened.  Even if all the other days in the month were 40s or cooler, you couldn't really overcome the three 90+ days, and the month would average above normal.

 

I hate the averages stats we depend on.  They are not precise, and often look different on paper than what we seem to experience.

[calculus1]

I hate the averages stats we depend on.  They are not precise, and often look different on paper than what we seem to experience.

 

At least, they don't tell the whole story.  The devil's in the details.  From a statistics point of view, the mean average is so susceptible to extreme values (outliers) which can skew their value.  Perhaps we should begin to use the median more.