KokomoWX Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 NAM looks on track for LAF/OKK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The nam drops a bomb on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The nam drops a bomb on this run Gotta luv the NAM at 84 Hrs! Will be totally different outcome by tomorrow or the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 wave in question comes ashore S Cali on or around 00Z 05DEC ... some hokey pokey is expected until it's balloonable IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 NW Arkansas looks to get pounded on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I'm sure someone will see snow out of this system, but I think significant questions remain as to who and how much. Looking at some things I'm rather skeptical of anyone seeing more than a few inches, despite several models spitting out a 6"+ corridor anywhere from the mid Ohio Valley to northern IN/OH. Although this is setting up to be a nice gradient pattern, with a SE ridge in place and a nice cross-polar flow dumping very cold air directly into the western US trough, a couple of things may keep this Thursday night-Friday wave from getting too out of control snowfall wise across the region. 1. I don't like the closed low shown over James Bay. This creates some confluence over New England and even the eastern lakes which argues against a more amped up solution like the NAM. I know this is more of an overrunning situation than a classic lakes cutter/Apps runner type system and a strong surface low really isn't in play, but I can't help but think the NAM is well done by a fair amount on its amount of precip in the cold sector. 2. Lack of snow cover outside of the upper Midwest, the source of the cold being well to our west, and SE ridge may limit how quickly the cold can spread SE to an extent. Some models, including the 0z Euro ensemble mean suggest the main p-type on Friday may be snow as far SE as me in Athens, OH. Due to the factors just mentioned I'm not sure how quickly the cold can spill in...I'd really expect it to get hung up just south of I-70 in Ohio(I know the highway runs E-W and the temperature gradient will be more NW-SE, but it's a close enough approximation for Ohio)...which suggests about the SErn 1/3rd of the state may see mainly rain Friday before ending as light snow/sleet. Farther west, the cold should get to near the Ohio River in IN and possibly into extreme NW KY and all of southern IL...the farther west you are, the less trouble the cold should have making it south. Just to illustrate my point on the NAM probably being well overdone on the NW extent of the precip, the 9z SREF ensembles suggest the NAM is too far NW. The Euro, GFS and Canadian are all farther SE than the NAM (with the GFS leading the way, possibly by a bit too much), and the SREF 24 hour QPF probability maps suggest very low or non-existent chances of getting 0.25"+ of liquid equivalent into northern IN/NW OH/extreme southern MI, even though the NAM gets those values that far NW: So, all in all I'd lean towards the models that are a bit less expansive with the precip shield for Friday (the GFS could well be a bit too supressed with the wave, but the end result may be closer to the GFS than the NAM) and lean towards mainly rain for the SE 1/3rd of OH, a mix for extreme southern IN and northwestern KY and mainly snow in IL (possibly into the PDH area as well). This extrapolates to mainly snow late Thursday night-Friday for St. Louis as well. However, I'd be skeptical of anyone seeing more than 4" of snow in that corridor (with the chances increasing somewhat as you go farther west)...with the corridor for snow being from the southern half of MO east through about the southern halves of IL/IN into a corridor of Ohio (with southern OH likely being mainly rain). A quick glance at thermal profiles suggests there may be a narrow corridor of zr over northwestern KY/far southern IN, but this doesn't look like a huge zr producer. The soundings look like mainly snow/sleet in the cold air from what I glanced at. So, we'll see how this goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The nam drops a bomb on this run Would be warning criteria snow even here. Can't buy into it until it has more support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 gotta love nam for giving us all this love for SEM .. Sending love back haahh.even 1-3"...I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Should probably extend the date to the 8th to cover both impulses instead of making a new thread. Could be a decent snow along and south of the I-70 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Should probably extend the date to the 8th to cover both impulses instead of making a new thread. Could be a decent snow along and south of the I-70 corridor. Yeah the 18Z GFS was pretty bullish for those along and south of the I70 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 0z NAM showing 6"+ from about Columbus OH southwest to Oklahoma City OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 0z NAM showing 6"+ from about Columbus OH southwest to Oklahoma City OK. Overdone especially as you go NE, I could see it down in OKC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 00z NAM backed off from the northward solution it had at 12z. Realistically I think we are looking at 1-2" tops here with higher totals farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Overdone especially as you go NE, I could see it down in OKC though. 0z GFS showing a solid 3-6" in the same general area. With that trending toward the Euro and GGEM, i would say the NAM is not looking that overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 0z GFS showing a solid 3-6" in the same general area. With that trending toward the Euro and GGEM, i would say the NAM is not looking that overdone. 3-6" is closer to reality than 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think 3-6" will be the average from this one. Way too warm this week plus ground temps are still warm, it'll be hard to get more than 6 out of it IMHO.. Frankly I think the ice will be the bigger story than the snow, especially from say here in DFW up through Western KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think 3-6" will be the average from this one. Way too warm this week plus ground temps are still warm, it'll be hard to get more than 6 out of it IMHO.. Frankly I think the ice will be the bigger story than the snow, especially from say here in DFW up through Western KY. I think ground temps should be pretty cool by now with all the cold weather up until recently. Plus rates look decent in the band so I'm not sure how much of a mitigating factor that will be at least in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 decent spread shown here north/south .... 4 inch under sod, which prolly realistically represents what most of us are lookin' at... EDIT: FWIW ... a good 10+ degrees colder in most spots (north and south) then the same date last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think ground temps should be pretty cool by now with all the cold weather up until recently. Plus rates look decent in the band so I'm not sure how much of a mitigating factor that will be at least in this region. heh, I see my being in the warm climate of DFW is already getting to my snow predictions... Yeah you are probably right for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 heh, I see my being in the warm climate of DFW is already getting to my snow predictions... Yeah you are probably right for sure Well, I think amounts over 6" will be the exception rather than the rule but has more to do with the type of system it is. That map posted above is kinda interesting...that is quite a disparity north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Well, I think amounts over 6" will be the exception rather than the rule but has more to do with the type of system it is. That map posted above is kinda interesting...that is quite a disparity north to south. that is an interesting map, but the disparity is not a big shock to me at all really, you never realize how much the winter can be different in such a short distance of space until you move somewhere else. I remember as a kid in Flora the winter was harsh at times yes, but nothing like the cold bitter winds you get in central Illinois.. and i'm sure Chicagoland and Northern Illinois is even harsher in terms of the bitter wind and colder temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Hadn't really been paying attention to the ice potential but it looks like it could be significant. This seems like a pretty classic setup with the shallow subfreezing air and pronounced warm layer aloft. The bad news is that it looks like some of the same areas could get hit with both rounds of freezing rain (Fri/Sun) in advance of the cold blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Just because it made me laugh out loud. See bolded below from IND Discussion: TEMPS...QUITE THE TEMP SWING THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED. WENTSLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL BEAT DAYBREAK...WITH STEADILY FALLING TEMPS ALL DAY AS COLDER AIRARRIVES. TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MET THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN COOLER MAVFRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP. ANTICIPATE MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAINBELOW 30 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. UNDERCUT ALL TEMP GUIDANCE FRIDAY NIGHTAS FRESH SNOWPACK IN MANY LOCALES COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES LATEWILL SUPPORT LOWS APPROACHING 10 DEGREES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.WELCOME TO WINTER. For those not ready... you might as well be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 NWS has me around 4.5". I am 20 miles or so SE of STL in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 IND has hoisted a watch for the SE half or so of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 NAM has been pitching a shutout here the past couple of runs and the ECMWF looks like it cut back on qpf. Wondering if I will be lucky to see 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 NAM has been pitching a shutout here the past couple of runs and the ECMWF looks like it cut back on qpf. Wondering if I will be lucky to see 1-2" Tough to be on the north side of a near miss. I hope for a very last minute shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I feel your pain. Might get a DAB where just 75 miles away the plows will be pushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Anyone else seeing a slight shift north on the rain snow line with the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I feel your pain. Might get a DAB where just 75 miles away the plows will be pushing. Your plows will be running soon! My car is a salt-splattered mess from the Thanksgiving snow lol. Tis the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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