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Florida ?


smog strangler

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 That would indeed be something.

 

Not seeing anything much now; seems hung up west of P'cola for the most part - but maybe it will scoot east and not dissipate.

 

Are you looking at any particular radar?

 

NWS. 

 

But there is virga over S GA and there appears to be some slight strengthening around/north of the Mobile area.

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Never fear Phil, 12z Euro ensembles still showing Gainsville some love. Barely anything on the OP, but the ensemble mean is about 1.1" snow with 10 members with 2" or more and 29 out of 50 with accumulating snow.

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Never fear Phil, 12z Euro ensembles still showing Gainsville some love. Barely anything on the OP, but the ensemble mean is about 1.1" snow with 10 members with 2" or more and 29 out of 50 with accumulating snow.

 

Thanks, Jon!

 

And look what's crossing  S Ga right now:

 

post-180-0-81405000-1390621078_thumb.jpg

 

Keep me posted!

 

Phil

 

PS - Can you PM me any Ens maps to get my heart rate up !!!!

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  • 3 weeks later...

really looking forward to how this plays out this afternoon. 82 here with cloud deck building. this impending show coming off the gulf later almost makes being so sick im home from work worth it lol. just hoping i can stay awake long enough to see it..should make for good window open weather if it gets breezy.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CST WED FEB 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 121907Z - 122100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT
A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE MCD AREA.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE MS VALLEY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SFC...A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT
130 STATUTE MILES SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE FL WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED 40
TO 55 KT LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET CO-LOCATED WITH THE SFC LOW. A
SQUALL-LINE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE JET FEATURE AND IS
MOVING TOWARD FL PENINSULA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F.
THE LINE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA IN THE 21Z TO
22Z TIMEFRAME. A FORWARD SPEED OF LINE 30 TO 35 KT ALONG WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IN WRN AND
CNTRL FL THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON
THE LEADING EDGE ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL FL WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F.
THESE STORMS COULD ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
THE FORM OF WET DOWNBURSTS.

 

post-154-0-31525600-1392232620_thumb.gif

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  • 3 weeks later...

seems like another round of storms tomorrow. time will tell if they reach maximum potential. 

 

Nice bow echo crossing the lower peninsula right now.  It's very outflow dominant, so best chance of a tornado developing would be if isolated cells can develop ahead of the line, or perhaps if a break in the line can form. 

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I'll be a snowbird in Orlando, Florida next month and we'll be looking forward to thunderstorms and severe

weather tracking.

 Typically April/May is dry down here - wildfire season. Want T'storms? June - Sept will give you more than you care for!   :raining:

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

Thanks for the weather outlook.  I've started to upack and to relax :).

Enjoy your stay!

 

Burn out on Orlando for 10 days then go see some of real Florida. To your north is the horse country around Ocala; neat geologic formations up here around Gainesville and west to Cedar Key; to your west of Orlando is the Ibor City district (Tampa) and Clearwater Beach; due south of you is some awfully unspoiled and fascinating terrain, and east - there is the St. John's River to explore (and go fish for a day), and some nice beaches past the river. All within a 2 hour drive in any direction.

 

Anywichway you head - it can be pretty, and county by county the weather likely will be (or well can be) different.

 

Welcome to Gator Country!

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

Now that I've moved to CA, the FL thread grows even smaller.  Sorry guys!  I'll continue to drop by during active weather from time to time. 

 

Might be a quiet hurricane season with a developing El Nino.  That said, even though El Nino reduces overall TC activity, many low-activity Nino years nonetheless featured one or more FL landfalls... so you never know! 

 

Could also be wet and active severe weather next winter if El Nino becomes strong.  Lots to keep an eye on. 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Looks like we should see some severe thunderstorms later this afternoon as the  SW rounds the base of the trough.  Clouds have almost completely vanished where I am and temperatures have increased to 87 where I am.  Conditions today are better than they were yesterday as far as triggering mechanisms go.  With the instability on the increase, would not be suprised to see some flash flooding around the area today. 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
940 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD THAT LED TO THE ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DIMINISHED WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE REMAINING THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIOD TODAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE CANOPY
OF CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS NOTED AROUND
GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES. IF THIS CLOUD COVERAGE MANAGES TO BURN OFF
OR BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...A COMBINATION OF THE PULSES OF ENERGY
WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. THE
MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT MIAMI SHOWED A VERY MOIST COLUMN
WITH A PW OF 1.74" AND DECENT LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850 AND 600MB.
THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE WAS AT 9.6 C DEGREES...WHICH WAS COLDER
THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS. CONSIDERING THE
RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE REALIZED IF THESE CONDITIONS
MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IF THE CLOUD COVERAGE MANAGES TO STAY IN
PLACE...THE CHANCES OF AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WILL BE LOWER. THE
LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY REFLECTS THIS LATTER SOLUTION OR MORE OF A
QUIET AFTERNOON PERIOD DUE TO THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS. CONSIDERING
THESE VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES...VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THIS PERIOD TODAY.

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