Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 Yeah I thought the Euro offered a nod to the GFS. And the NAM appears to lend support to the op GFS idea... and the UK as well to a lesser extent. Ensemble members show a few interesting solutions and a large spread. The Canadian does not look very good. Maybe tonight we can establish a trend in the right direction. This thing could shift in either direction. Def worth watching. It's early in the year to see how models are going to do in the cold season but it always seems the OP GFS will pick up on something earlier but be way overdone while the Euro trudges that way but never overshoots the mark. That would presumably mean a respectable low but either a close scrape or a fish storm maybe more like the UKMET? Just guessing. But, something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Euro ensemble mean is giving about a tenth to a quarter inch of QPF to eastern half of SNE...it gives eastern Maine up by BGR a bigger event. There's a few weenie members up here...more for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 18z GFS corrected towards the rest of the pack. Decent low develops staying outside the BM while maybe clipping eastern areas but it's mild. Fighting a lot of issues with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 18Z is warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 18Z is warm Good times are only 7-10+ days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I say we're still on average 10 days early. Patience friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Good times are only 7-10+ days away. love that movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Why would someone repeatedly start throwing amounts on threats that have little support? I'd have over 2 feet already if every "likely" verified. This threat appears legit and as Winston Tomasi stated he only starts threads that have a chance. It does stir discussion, that's for sure. Not sure if its good discussion though, lol. Hopefully we have a few snow one snow events over the next 5-6 days.. Fixed your typos for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 love that movie. We're one week away from pinned upslope threads to keep Coastalwx engaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 The biggest problem is there is very little room to allow for enough amplification early enough to allow for cyclogenesis to occur earlier and further south and perhaps west. It's going to be extremely difficult to do with such a progressive flow as well. The 12z GFS really tried to get that to happen but there is not a great deal of support, though some ensemble members are certainly saying, "hey don't give up yet". However, despite models also throwing in some warmer llvl air, if we were to see cyclogenesis occurs like 5-6 hours prior to what the 12z GFS suggested, I think much more of the region, perhaps with the exception of far SE MA would see a temp profile suggestive of mainly all snow as at that point warm air advecting this far inland would be muted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Everyone is crabby. Scooter infected is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Everyone is crabby. Scooter infected is all Scooter made everyone crabby. This pattern must have gotten to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Scooter made everyone crabby. This pattern must have gotten to him. This is why convection is so great...makes us all feel warmed and loving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 This is why convection is so great...makes us all feel warmed and lovingWiz, I was kidding, but your post was well written Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Scooter made everyone crabby. This pattern must have gotten to him. I need anger management after reading these threads lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Wiz, I was kidding, but your post was well written I know I just like to throw out any type of posts regarding convection every now and then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Scooter made everyone crabby. This pattern must have gotten to him. Well he did almost meltdown by the end of dec last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Well he did almost meltdown by the end of dec last year The pattern definitely got to me by the end of last December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 The pattern definitely got to me by the end of last December. I have a feeling we will be singing a different tune come the end of this December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Mild and a little damp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Mild and a little damp Yup - no snow anywhere on the GFS... mild. Still some QPF though with an inverted trough kind of look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On to the next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Yup - no snow anywhere on the GFS... mild. Still some QPF though with an inverted trough kind of look. Feels like late march or April....unless it's a big storm it's too mild. Be good for the qpf deficit though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 It should be on the NCEP site as quick is what I mean. Meh, you guys get most stuff faster than we do in the office. For a long time the Euro play by play was the faster way for us to get information about its latest runs. Now that we've opted to use some of our local funds for a pay site that isn't as much of a problem. And sometime soon it will be available on the Satellite Broadcast Network so that data will dump into AWIPS as soon as it is available (just like NAM or GFS). Still no Euro EPS data though, have to use the internet for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On to the next Lets hope out chances after the 7'th are actually better as we get close in. We still have a shot at Tuesday storm and it may not be settled to Tommorrow noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Lets hope out chances after the 7'th are actually better as we get close in. We still have a shot at Tuesday storm and it may not be settled to Tommorrow noon We'll get rain east of 495, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 We'll get rain east of 495, Yeah, honestly Tueaday is done for anyone on the coastal plain snow wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 euro has some snow for the Berks and ORH from the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 6z GFS is close and may dynamically cool the higher terrain north and west of the Pike/495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 6z GFS is close and may dynamically cool the higher terrain north and west of the Pike/495. I guess I'll need to bring the snowblower out to the driveway before I had to IA on Monday. I'll need to that at some point anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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