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12/3 Tuesday Potential Event

Clinch Leatherwood

By Clinch Leatherwood,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

It's likely a 2-4 inch deal. Just plan on that do you don't get hopes up

 

:weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

 

This will probably come out badly, so I'll apologize in advance if it does.  But that's a ridiculous thing to say at 100 hours out.

 

I'll be in Iowa then so I'll be celebrating or commiserating from afar whatever it might migh not bring.

 

27.3/11

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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It would seem that this pattern upcoming is much more conducive to overruning events rather than wound up big storms. I'd be very cautious about calling for or getting hopes up for big would up storms..think more along lines of weaker waves slipping south along boundaries

lots of low level cold around, interesting times.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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It would seem that this pattern upcoming is much more conducive to overruning events rather than wound up big storms. I'd be very cautious about calling for or getting hopes up for big would up storms..think more along lines of weaker waves slipping south along boundaries

My favorite winter that is not to be spoken of out loud.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

I'm starting a Google Document to list Kevin's forecasted and observed snowfall. Will be interesting to track the differences!

 

As for Tuesday it's a bit intriguing - the GEFS have a few amped up solutions so it's worth watching. 

 

What's the cutoff and shouldn't there be a comparison between calls?  For example, are you going to record his call 4 days out or just before the event and can't we list other forecasters calls and do a comparison?  I think it sounds like a good way to get some interaction between forecasters instead of just focusing on one.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
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What's the cutoff and shouldn't there be a comparison between calls?  For example, are you going to record his call 4 days out or just before the event and can't we list other forecasters calls and do a comparison?  I think it sounds like a good way to get some interaction between forecasters instead of just focusing on one.

 

Kevin had 1-2" prior to the Wednesday event, 1" for Sunday and 2"-4" for Tuesday. 

 

I'm guessing he'll wind up with a cumulative TRACE by Wednesday morning lol.

 

But yeah - it's something that we could do that would be fun. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

What's the cutoff and shouldn't there be a comparison between calls?  For example, are you going to record his call 4 days out or just before the event and can't we list other forecasters calls and do a comparison?  I think it sounds like a good way to get some interaction between forecasters instead of just focusing on one.

I'm not sure why he is so obsessed with me or my opinions..but I will say it's a bit alarming, disturbing, and somewhat creepy.

 

Hopefully we have a few  snow events over the next 5-6 days..

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

When you look at 108 v 120 last night, you can see what's changing a little.  Less focus offshore, now more with the impulse riding down through the OHV.  It's interesting, would need to see that really establish itself to get a GFS type solution.  Long shot, but beats watching capped ocean flurries.

 

you enjoy your day 5 modeled storm...i'll enjoy my flurries tonight and tomorrow. 

don't see the harm. 

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
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It would seem that this pattern upcoming is much more conducive to overruning events rather than wound up big storms. I'd be very cautious about calling for or getting hopes up for big would up storms..think more along lines of weaker waves slipping south along boundaries

At day 4 there are pretty deep cutoff lows modeled on most guidance both upstream and downstream of our region, near 40 degrees north latitude.  That suggests to me it's plausible (if not likely), that the flow amplifies and ultimately cuts off somewhere in between.  And a serpentine flow should eventually lead to wound up surface features.  A surface low will probably form along the east coast and eventually deepen, probably well offshore or in the Maritimes.  The question is whether or not it will track close enough to the coast and or interact with the UL energy moving through the OV to have much of an impact on the region.

 

With my weenie goggles strapped on I could totally envision a relatively long duration moderate wraparound event with coastal locations starting as rain but changing over late.  I feel like parts of Maine probably jjackpot either way.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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you enjoy your day 5 modeled storm...i'll enjoy my flurries tonight and tomorrow. 

don't see the harm. 

 

All I'm saying is if we're going to start separate threads for EVERY little flake or flurry we should probably at least PIN them at the top because I doubt many new readers are going to come here and expect an elaborate discussion about snow flurries.

 

The later AFD/zones backed off on the higher percentage chances and mention of up to an 1" tonight.  Lokoing out over the water now there are just a few clouds beginning to form over but with a chopped top for sure.  Dry and capped.

 

NAM would cook up a nice ocean low later in the period.  But probably too far for us.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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At day 4 there are pretty deep cutoff lows modeled on most guidance both upstream and downstream of our region, near 40 degrees north latitude.  That suggests to me it's plausible (if not likely), that the flow amplifies and ultimately cuts off somewhere in between.  And a serpentine flow should eventually lead to wound up surface features.  A surface low will probably form along the east coast and eventually deepen, probably well offshore or in the Maritimes.  The question is whether or not it will track close enough to the coast and or interact with the UL energy moving through the OV to have much of an impact on the region.

 

With my weenie goggles strapped on I could totally envision a relatively long duration moderate wraparound event with coastal locations starting as rain but changing over late.  I feel like parts of Maine probably jjackpot either way.

 

 

This should probably be in the other thread but I don't think Tuesday is a foregone conclusion at this point either.  I thougth there were positive changes on some of the models albeit with still a ton to go.  No doubt the 18z GFS will abandon the earlier run, but it may still end up being interesting.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

This should probably be in the other thread but I don't think Tuesday is a foregone conclusion at this point either.  I thougth there were positive changes on some of the models albeit with still a ton to go.  No doubt the 18z GFS will abandon the earlier run, but it may still end up being interesting.

Call me crazy but 18z NAM looks interesting, being the NAM and all, but yea I wold not write this off

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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Call me crazy but 18z NAM looks interesting, being the NAM and all, but yea I wold not write this off

 

 

Compare the 18z NAM at the end to the old GFS.  1002/3 mb low on both just off Hatteras.

 

It's the NAM 83 hours beyond it's useful range but it looks like it'd develop a wound up low moreso than even the old GFS.  JMHO but probably further to sea?

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

This should probably be in the other thread but I don't think Tuesday is a foregone conclusion at this point either.  I thougth there were positive changes on some of the models albeit with still a ton to go.  No doubt the 18z GFS will abandon the earlier run, but it may still end up being interesting.

Yeah I thought the Euro offered a nod to the GFS.  And the NAM appears to lend support to the op GFS idea... and the UK as well to a lesser extent.  Ensemble members show a few interesting solutions and a large spread.  The Canadian does not look very good.  Maybe tonight we can establish a trend in the right direction.  This thing could shift in either direction.  Def worth watching.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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i was looking at upper air features but yea.

 

NAM I think would be a big ocean low, but maybe a little more seaward.  Not going to waste a lot of time on it.  By morning the picture should be cemented one way or the other.

 

Whenever I see the models wobbling around with the idea of kind of dual features it seems like more times than not we either end up with a real low, or not much of anything.  I thought the 12z Euro took the emphasis away from the leading low but didn't quite get there on the trailing and that may be what happens in the end.  Normally the GFS overdoes everything on the extremes while the Euro may tick closer to a stronger second system, but never get anywhere near a big hit.

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