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December 2013 obs and discussion

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

so yea, i judge the weather sometimes based on whether it was a good outdoor basketball day.  it was definitely nicer than i expected.  no runner's gloves needed.  very little wind.  jump shot not affected due to the elements.  solid winter day as far as that's concerned.

 

looking forward to tomorrow before the next round of cooler weather.

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jonjon

jonjon

Posted
Posted

Looks like a tough forecast for up this way tomorrow.  I'm hoping that the rain turns to snow quicker than projected.  Here is what the Fearless Canaan Weatherman's take is:

 

Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman sees some subtle upper-air differences with public forecasts calling for all rain in the developing weather Sunday that result in significant differences in my WV high country forecast. It's a difficult call with low confidence but here it is.... I see all rain developing early Sunday (12-29-13) morning between 1 and 4 am with mild temperatures in the 40's throughout the WV high country. Snow levels will initially be about 9,000 feet, well above the highest surfaces (5,000 ft.). As the disturbance develops to the east of the Canaan and moves NE, I see it creating it's own pocket of below freezing air at higher levels rather quickly as the storm intensifies. This cold pocket will lower in elevation Sunday afternoon, possibly changing the rain to wet snow, which will be quite elevation dependent. As usual, the exact track and speed of intensification of the disturbance will strongly affect what happens. I expect the rain-to-snow changeover to occur as the snow levels drop in elevation as the afternoon progresses as follows: Elevation Time of changeover Total Snowfall * (feet) Sunday through Monday noon * above 4,500 noon to 2 pm 4 to 8 inches * 4,000 ft. - 4,500 1 to 3 pm 3 to 6 inches * 3,000 ft. - 4,000 2 to 4 pm 2 to 4 inches * 2,000 ft. - 3,000 3 to 8 pm 1-2 inches... The timing of the changeover to snow is critical to the snowfall amounts. I expect snowfall to begin mixing in when surface temperatures reach the mid-30's. If the changeover to all-snow occurs more quickly, snowfall totals will be higher. If it occurs slower, totals will be less. There is a possibility that the changeover may not occur until around midnight Sunday down to 3,000 feet. If this scenario occurs, snowfall totals will be greatly reduced at all elevations but still allow for an inch or two accumulation at elevations above 3,000 feet. Again, this is a complex, low-confidence snow forecast. However, all those venturing in the high-elevation back country, especially above 4,000 feet elevation, should be prepared for the possibility of a significant snowfall. The rest of New Year's week looks cold with some upslope mountaintop snows possible from time-to-time. I will stay on top of that after we get past the Sunday-Monday system. Your Fearless Canaan Weatherman.

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snownut

snownut

Posted
Posted

Don't you just love our climate here? 38.6 and already .49 in the bucket...

 

I did take some time yesterday for a 10K on the AT with my dog, kids and daughter's boyfriend.

 

It really was an awesome day to be outside, I just wish I had worn my shorts.

 

Few pictures from yesterday

 

post-4831-0-97752300-1388319544_thumb.jp

 

post-4831-0-14727900-1388319575_thumb.jp

 

post-4831-0-90769800-1388319597_thumb.jp

 

post-4831-0-13340700-1388319622_thumb.jp

 

 

 

 

 

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