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December 2013 obs and discussion


Ian

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That for DCA?  My thermometer was reading 59.2 when I got home from golfing at 3:30.  The wind made it feel colder than it was. 

Yeah, 60/44 for a +14 today.

 

Dulles 57, BWI 58... MOS wasn't that far off in reality.

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It hit 59 here today. For a brief period when the sun was out it was quite nice, but it generally cloudy and don't feel terribly warm.

Saying that I'm a snow fan but hate the cold is like saying I love the summer but hate the sun.

It's more like saying I like storms but don't like furnace heat.

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Before looking at historical snowfall data for DCA, I never realized how sucky the town is wrt to annual snowfall. 

 

The avg being 15.4 as we know. DCA has only hit average 9 times since 81-82. That's pretty sucky. The funny thing is, when DCA does have an AOA snowfall season, it usually receives at least 30% above. During that same time frame, 7 of the 9 seasons with at least average were >30% above. Go big or go home is alive and well in DC. 

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Before looking at historical snowfall data for DCA, I never realized how sucky the town is wrt to annual snowfall.

The avg being 15.4 as we know. DCA has only hit average 9 times since 81-82. That's pretty sucky. The funny thing is, when DCA does have an AOA snowfall season, it usually receives at least 30% above. During that same time frame, 7 of the 9 seasons with at least average were >30% above. Go big or go home is alive and well in DC.

I am writing something for CWG on our changing snow climo. It's a pretty big idea for one post but compelling evidence there at least. I may try to replicate it to some other local stations to see if it's a bigger trend across the region. The good news is we can still do the big storm well and i do personally wonder if climate change opens the door for more 09-10s.. At least till we end up with SC snow climo which hopefully is still 100 years off.
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Would be interested in seeing the data for a handful of local stations though I'm not sure how well that data is kept outside of the airports. Looking at the same data for Dulles and BWI, the trend is definitely there. 

 

Avg at IAD is now 22". Since 81-82 they've only hit average 10 times, so only once more than DCA. Eight of those ten seasons were >30% of the average.

 

Avg at BWI is now 20.1". Since 81-82 they've only hit average 9 times and sure enough, 6 of those seasons were >30% of average. 

 

It sure seems that average snowfall is down, but the possibility of the big season is still out there once or twice a decade. 

I am writing something for CWG on our changing snow climo. It's a pretty big idea for one post but compelling evidence there at least. I may try to replicate it to some other local stations to see if it's a bigger trend across the region. The good news is we can still do the big storm well and i do personally wonder if climate change opens the door for more 09-10s.. At least till we end up with SC snow climo which hopefully is still 100 years off.

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I am writing something for CWG on our changing snow climo. It's a pretty big idea for one post but compelling evidence there at least. I may try to replicate it to some other local stations to see if it's a bigger trend across the region. The good news is we can still do the big storm well and i do personally wonder if climate change opens the door for more 09-10s.. At least till we end up with SC snow climo which hopefully is still 100 years off.

 

Kind of reminds me of this article from last winter

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/does-the-less-snow-more-blizzards-global-warming-theory-hold-up-in-washington-dc/2013/02/20/3de44236-7acf-11e2-9a75-dab0201670da_blog.html

 

Not gonna lie, the very end of it (before the technical notes) is very depressing to read and makes me want to move to Canada.

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Kind of reminds me of this article from last winter

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/does-the-less-snow-more-blizzards-global-warming-theory-hold-up-in-washington-dc/2013/02/20/3de44236-7acf-11e2-9a75-dab0201670da_blog.html

 

Not gonna lie, the very end of it (before the technical notes) is very depressing to read and makes me want to move to Canada.

yeah, had forgotten about that one. i kind of break it down differently.. in various ways. same general conclusion though. the good news is that jan and feb haven't changed as much snow-wise as the other months. so, as most of us at least in DC know... eventful winter is mainly a 6-8 week affair and anything on either end is something of a bonus. my worry is march becomes april and feb becomes march going forward.  i think it's harder to totally ruin feb and jan though given the source region cold so seem relatively safe.

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I hope ya'll don't mind me bringing in data from outside our area, but I think it helps to see that this isn't just a problem confined to our lowly MA area. 

 

Here are some numbers for PA reporting stations:

 

Harrisburg: 30 yr avg is 31.2. Since 81-82 they've had below avg snowfall 21 seasons. It's most prominent since the mid-90s where they've only had above average snowfall 3 times since the winter of 96-97. 

 

State College: 30 yr avg is 45.6". During that time they've had below avg snowfall 22 seasons. 

 

Williamsport: 30 yr avg is 36.4"...........below avg 19 seasons. 

 

 

The averages for some of these reporting stations are being skewed by monster seasons! SC has had seasons of 69.1, 92.5, 109.3, 99, 83.6 and 71.4 (I was there for the last two and they were wonderful). Harrisburg has even had a few seasons pushing 80". 

 

I'm sure there are many other similar examples outside of the mountainous areas. Those areas are still getting the snow regardless. Laurel Summit in PA has received at least 100" in every season for the last decade. That's sick and oh so close to our area.

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Mtns have a decent buffer .. wonder if in some cases they actually do better in the current climate.  Raw precip trends haven't changed much locally but we do seem to tend more toward big bombs that are moisture loaded vs a slew of smaller events. 

 

The lower northeast has a large area with a fairly marginal temperature regime and we can almost all be impacted by intrusions from the Gulf and Atlantic with regularity in the winter.  Even a few degrees makes a big difference in a lot of spots.

 

I dunno if anyone's working on analyzing at a higher level. I can't even seem to find a good map with recent seasonal snow averages for the whole CONUS. 

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52 degrees here.  Front of the house sits at and just above 1000 ft.  We overlook smaller hills and valleys which are around 800 feet as we are the high point of  this road.  The very front of the house is down to about 75% snow cover while the valleys and back of the property still maintained 90-100% coverage despite the warmth of the last two days and nights.  It will all be gone by lunch tomorrow but all that freezing rain sucked into the snow pack really helped preserve it through a couple days of serious torch.  I'm amazed anything is left this morning, but the higher elevations have melted faster and the valleys have really held their cold pockets pretty well.   

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