Ian Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Being a fan of breaking records, I hope the region does not get clouded over tommorow and Sunday. That would be a real deal breaker for the 850mb temps. Sunday's going to break some records even if it's cloudy I think. Tomorrow could be close at Dulles and BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Eh it's not going to snow all the time might as well not have frozen fingers every day. It's the same argument every year, of course. I don't understand the love-in with cold, and absolutely love when we get warmups in the winter, but to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's the same argument every year, of course. I don't understand the love-in with cold, and absolutely love when we get warmups in the winter, but to each their own. I think it's mostly because cold is a prereq for snow -- at least to a degree. Even that argument is a little overblown. We can get a decent storm with a runup near normal which isn't that cold. But the idea that we're losing out on winter by it not being in the 20s and windy instead of seeing days like today doesn't make much sense to me. Outside the mtns a lot of places that get snow have little thaws here and there.. we're just pretty far south in the end so our thaws end up pretty noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 yeah most jan or febs have a torch somewhere in them lately Ian, if you know, how common is the "January thaw"? Seems to occur a lot off the top of my head...but is it that much different in January than Feb., or is it just a sort of folk saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Outside the mtns a lot of places that get snow have little thaws here and there.. we're just pretty far south in the end so our thaws end up pretty noticeable. Low 50s are a thaw in winter when you average highs are ~40F. I guess we're getting a bit OT here, but my dislike of these +25F days like we'll have on Sunday is the relative ease they come about. It's just a sad fact of the new climate, but the bell curve isn't centered on zero anymore. We don't get as many -25F days as we get +25F days. Not even close. Matt's winter forecast says it pretty well in that the warm days will be far warmer than the cold days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Ian, if you know, how common is the "January thaw"? Seems to occur a lot off the top of my head...but is it that much different in January than Feb., or is it just a sort of folk saying? I don't really have any stats on that but I think it's more or less real at least as folklore. Typically the coldest weather of the year comes somewhere in Jan and it's often followed by a relaxation.. so I think that just gets called the January thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's the same argument every year, of course. I don't understand the love-in with cold, and absolutely love when we get warmups in the winter, but to each their own. I think it is two-fold 1) Some of us like the feel of cold in winter, especially if there is snowcover..makes it feel like winter...and in DC it is very easy to dress for..I love some good cold...it is the persistent cloudy dry days with a high of 39-43 that annoy me...I love a sunny, crisp day with a high of 35...feels great...especially in February... 2) You need cold for snow...warmer months tend not to be very snowy here...and a good stable snow pattern will be cold...an oscillating cold - warm pattern is not a good pattern for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I don't really have any stats on that but I think it's more or less real at least as folklore. Typically the coldest weather of the year comes somewhere in Jan and it's often followed by a relaxation.. so I think that just gets called the January thaw. Makes sense -- thanks. And for an ob: up to 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Low 50s are a thaw in winter when you average highs are ~40F. I guess we're getting a bit OT here, but my dislike of these +25F days like we'll have on Sunday is the relative ease they come about. It's just a sad fact of the new climate, but the bell curve isn't centered on zero anymore. We don't get as many -25F days as we get +25F days. Not even close. Matt's winter forecast says it pretty well in that the warm days will be far warmer than the cold days. I think we've talked about that for a long time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 DCA up to 56 and immediate DC metro 55-57...today could be the little engine that could as we muscle our way to 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think it is two-fold 1) Some of us like the feel of cold in winter, especially if there is snowcover..makes it feel like winter...and in DC it is very easy to dress for..I love some good cold...it is the persistent cloudy dry days with a high of 39-43 that annoy me...I love a sunny, crisp day with a high of 35...feels great...especially in February... 2) You need cold for snow...warmer months tend not to be very snowy here...and a good stable snow pattern will be cold...an oscillating cold - warm pattern is not a good pattern for snow I think #2 is true more or less but we have a number of examples of good storms with near normal temps ahead of time which aren't that cold even in the heart of winter. In Jan and Feb it's a lot easier to fall into good snow than usual with better source air nearby etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think it is two-fold 1) Some of us like the feel of cold in winter, especially if there is snowcover..makes it feel like winter...and in DC it is very easy to dress for..I love some good cold...it is the persistent cloudy dry days with a high of 39-43 that annoy me...I love a sunny, crisp day with a high of 35...feels great...especially in February... 2) You need cold for snow...warmer months tend not to be very snowy here...and a good stable snow pattern will be cold...an oscillating cold - warm pattern is not a good pattern for snow This is pretty much how I feel. Warm days = low on the 1 to 10 scale Cold days = high on the scale IF there is snow on the ground, low if there is none So, I guess in summary, if it's either not snowing or no snow on the ground, I pretty much think its a crappy day weather wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 We're "see texted" for Sunday. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 We're "see texted" for Sunday. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Let me be the first to meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I think it is two-fold 1) Some of us like the feel of cold in winter, especially if there is snowcover..makes it feel like winter...and in DC it is very easy to dress for..I love some good cold...it is the persistent cloudy dry days with a high of 39-43 that annoy me...I love a sunny, crisp day with a high of 35...feels great...especially in February... 2) You need cold for snow...warmer months tend not to be very snowy here...and a good stable snow pattern will be cold...an oscillating cold - warm pattern is not a good pattern for snow Re: #1 - We can certainly agree on that the cloudy and ~40 days are no good to anyone. I'm OK with sunny and chilly, especially as we get later in the winter when being in the sun makes a huge difference in he apparent temperature. Re: #2 - I never thought of that being the case, but I yield to those with greater climo knowledge than I'll ever have. I don't recall 09-10 being particularly cold. Rather, it was cold when it needed to be. Am I remembering that incorrectly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Re: #1 - We can certainly agree on that the cloudy and ~40 days are no good to anyone. I'm OK with sunny and chilly, especially as we get later in the winter when being in the sun makes a huge difference in he apparent temperature. Re: #2 - I never thought of that being the case, but I yield to those with greater climo knowledge than I'll ever have. I don't recall 09-10 being particularly cold. Rather, it was cold when it needed to be. Am I remembering that incorrectly? 09-10 was cold/chilly in the means. It wasn't that cold leading up to Snowmageddon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's the same argument every year, of course. I don't understand the love-in with cold, and absolutely love when we get warmups in the winter, but to each their own. It's because we are winter weather fans. If you do not understand the "love-in" with cold then you do not understand The key element to the production of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 09-10 was cold/chilly in the means. It wasn't that cold leading up to Snowmageddon though. Is that the Feb storm? If so, the KOKV average temp for the 7 days leading up to that storm was 26.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Is that the Feb storm? If so, the KOKV average temp for the 7 days leading up to that storm was 26.3. I'm not sure what that means as I don't know the avg there. But DC was about normal in the few days leading up. Below normal for like 2 weeks after though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 09-10 was cold/chilly in the means. It wasn't that cold leading up to Snowmageddon though. Fair enough. I don't recall it seeming terribly cold, even though we had about 1000" of snow that year. Maybe it's because having snow around all the time made the cold more bearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I can finally see my grass.... snow cover is still there but patchy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It's because we are winter weather fans. If you do not understand the "love-in" with cold then you do not understand The key element to the production of winter weather. I'm a snow fan, and I weenie out with the best of them when we get a good snowstorm, but I really don't care (at all) about it being cold without snow. If others like cold without snow, then more power to them (you). As I said, it's an argument/discussion we have all the time. Kind of like sun angle and ground temps and whether PA posters should be posting in this forum. It just keep coming back around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Saying that I'm a snow fan but hate the cold is like saying I love the summer but hate the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Saying that I'm a snow fan but hate the cold is like saying I love the summer but hate the sun. You've become quite the grumpy old man of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I'm not sure what that means as I don't know the avg there. But DC was about normal in the few days leading up. Below normal for like 2 weeks after though. Yeah it's hard to say what it was outside of the area someone was in. I only looked it up when I saw your post. That avg would be about 5 degrees below out here. We had a lot of snow on the ground. That might have kept temps down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Up to 60 with some late clearing. MOS actually a bit low again today in the end, well in DC at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Up to 60 with some late clearing. MOS actually a bit low again today in the end, well in DC at least. 60's made it up to around the black line (assuming no more warming) I think models had that line well south of here...what was MOS?..like 56? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Got up into the low 50's here today, but not neatly as much melting as I thought would occur. Most areas around here still have a good amount of snow cover. This has been a stubborn snowpack to get rid off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 60's made it up to around the black line (assuming no more warming) I think models had that line well south of here...what was MOS?..like 56? sixty.PNG Don't remember exactly but somewhere close to that. Mostly like 54-58 locally which I guess is close enough. I think GFS mos got ADW to 61 last night. Camden had a big range today which I left alone since I wasn't sure myself but have been leaning on the warm end lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 58.2. Lower than yesterday but higher than I thought it was going to get to at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.