December 2013 obs and discussion

[Ian]

LWX is going to have to bring out their upper air climo stats again

 

Euro

sunday 850s.JPG

i tried asking.. i don't think they understood the question

 

https://twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/413420919257047040

[wxmeddler]

i tried asking.. i don't think they understood the question

 

https://twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/413420919257047040

[Ian]

Where is that from?

[Ian]

Interesting dec has a higher max than nov

[wxmeddler]

Where is that from?

 

NWS Rapid City SOO.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/?n=pw

[WinterWxLuvr]

Interesting dec has a higher max than nov

And 99th percentile is less than 2 st dev

[Ian]

LWX responded to my clarifying tweet

 

"The highest December 850 mb T recorded (since 1961) from one of our soundings here at Dulles is 20.6 C on 12/11/2002 at 8 PM

 

That was the only other time since 1961 the 850 T was 18-20 C in December at Dulles, according to our data"

 

https://twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/413448002465173504

https://twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/413448336814129152

[Ian]

Also, 2002 analog.

[jnis]

Last full day of snowcover here in Clarksburg today, I'd guess. High was 34.9F. Nice December day. Maybe the snowcover will delay the torch starting tomorrow by a day...

image.jpg

Nice picture. Yeah it is all but gone in Germantown. My thought is if we are going to lose the snow, then bring on a few warm days and make happen quick...like pulling a band aid.

[Amped]

LWX responded to my clarifying tweet

 

"The highest December 850 mb T recorded (since 1961) from one of our soundings here at Dulles is 20.6 C on 12/11/2002 at 8 PM

 

That was the only other time since 1961 the 850 T was 18-20 C in December at Dulles, according to our data"

 

https://twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/413448002465173504

https://twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/413448336814129152

 

 

NARR disagrees.00 UCT 12/12/2002 doesn't look crazy warm. Maybe 3C?

 

[Ian]

NARR disagrees.00 UCT 12/12/2002 doesn't look crazy warm. Maybe 3C?

 

 

hmm yeah there was freezing rain the morning of the 11th and the high was mid-30s. 

 

2002 analog cancel.  maybe they typed the wrong year. look for a warm dec 11.

[Amped]

hmm yeah there was freezing rain the morning of the 11th and the high was mid-30s. 

 

2002 analog cancel.  maybe they typed the wrong year. look for a warm dec 11.

Probably just a bad ob, or a hell of a heat burst.

[wxmeddler]

hmm yeah there was freezing rain the morning of the 11th and the high was mid-30s. 

 

2002 analog cancel.  maybe they typed the wrong year. look for a warm dec 11.

 

Top 20 850t IAD/DCA RAOBS for December:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/unr/soo/T850/top50-T850.pdf <-- See page 48.

 

AD/DCA Rank H8temp Year Month Day Hour(Z) WMO

1 20.6 2002 12 12 0 72403

2 16.2 1977 12 1 12 72403

3 15.7 1955 12 24 21 72405

4 15.2 1967 12 19 0 72403

5 15.2 1951 12 9 15 72405

6 15.1 2001 12 14 0 72403

7 15 1982 12 4 12 72403

8 14.8 1998 12 7 12 72403

9 14.5 1994 12 7 12 72403

10 14.5 1956 12 7 9 72405

11 14.4 1992 12 16 12 72403

12 14.1 1951 12 8 3 72405

13 14 1982 12 26 0 72403

14 14 1949 12 22 3 72405

15 13.9 2001 12 6 0 72403

16 13.8 1955 12 4 21 72405

17 13.7 1951 12 7 15 72405

18 13.6 1990 12 30 12 72403

19 13.6 1990 12 30 11 72403

20 13.5 1991 12 13 12 72403

[Ian]

 

AD/DCA Rank H8temp Year Month Day Hour(Z) WMO

1 20.6 2002 12 12 0 72403

2 16.2 1977 12 1 12 72403

3 15.7 1955 12 24 21 72405

4 15.2 1967 12 19 0 72403

5 15.2 1951 12 9 15 72405

6 15.1 2001 12 14 0 72403

7 15 1982 12 4 12 72403

8 14.8 1998 12 7 12 72403

9 14.5 1994 12 7 12 72403

10 14.5 1956 12 7 9 72405

11 14.4 1992 12 16 12 72403

12 14.1 1951 12 8 3 72405

13 14 1982 12 26 0 72403

14 14 1949 12 22 3 72405

15 13.9 2001 12 6 0 72403

16 13.8 1955 12 4 21 72405

17 13.7 1951 12 7 15 72405

18 13.6 1990 12 30 12 72403

19 13.6 1990 12 30 11 72403

20 13.5 1991 12 13 12 72403

 

hmm.. still doesn't make sense looking at the map and obs. is that public?

[wxmeddler]

hmm.. still doesn't make sense looking at the map and obs. is that public?

 

Yeah, its from the same site as before. I'm looking up that particular RAOB now from the ESRL database.

[wxmeddler]

Huh. It verifies.

[Ian]

Except it doesn't match the actual sfc conditions?

[wxmeddler]

Except it doesn't match the actual sfc conditions?

It seems it might be the biggest inversion ever. This says the surface was 1004mb (85m ASL) and 0/-1°C and at 122m ASL (1000.0mb) it was 4.8/4.7°C then at 240m ASL (986mb) it was 20.4/20.4°C

 

 254      0     12      DEC    2002
      1  93734  72403  38.98N 77.47W    85   2350
      2   8500    149   1720     79  99999      3
      3           IAD                99999     kt
      9  10040     85      0     -1    330      2
      4  10000    122     48     47    330      4
      5   9860    240    204    204  99999  99999
      6   9787    304  99999  99999    340     17
      6   9444    609  99999  99999    345     12
      5   9340    704    198    198  99999  99999
      4   9250    794    206    206    330     11
      6   9122    914  99999  99999    300     14
      5   8930   1097    218    218  99999  99999
      6   8807   1219  99999  99999    305     23
      4   8500   1531    206    206    305     27

[Ian]

It's gotta be wrong. Even if there was a warm pocket somewhere how would there be a 20C warm pocket? 

 

This looks like it's in the 2-7C range across the larger region. 

 

[Amped]

It seems it might be the biggest inversion ever. This says the surface was 1004mb (85m ASL) and 0/-1°C and at 122m ASL (1000.0mb) it was 4.8/4.7°C then at 240m ASL (986mb) it was 20.4/20.4°C

 

 254      0     12      DEC    2002
      1  93734  72403  38.98N 77.47W    85   2350
      2   8500    149   1720     79  99999      3
      3           IAD                99999     kt
      9  10040     85      0     -1    330      2
      4  10000    122     48     47    330      4
      5   9860    240    204    204  99999  99999
      6   9787    304  99999  99999    340     17
      6   9444    609  99999  99999    345     12
      5   9340    704    198    198  99999  99999
      4   9250    794    206    206    330     11
      6   9122    914  99999  99999    300     14
      5   8930   1097    218    218  99999  99999
      6   8807   1219  99999  99999    305     23
      4   8500   1531    206    206    305     27

If you look at the graph you can actually spot the horizontal blue line at 1000mb on the sounding.  The 9999s (No Data Code)  in there may also be an indication the instrument was having issues. But it does look like it could be 16C off on all the good readings.

[MN Transplant]

Obviously a bad sounding.  Here is before and after:

 

 

[Ian]

So does that make 16.2C the highest in that dataset? That's an easier bar.

[MN Transplant]

So does that make 16.2C the highest in that dataset? That's an easier bar.

 

It should.  You might want to let the NWS know.

[Ian]

It should.  You might want to let the NWS know.

Yeah, I did.  Gotta love databases. I think most people would be sad to realize how much almost all of them suck. Well, except most people don't care.

[das]

It should.  You might want to let the NWS know.

 

Point them to this thread.  Great reanalysis logic here and the site wxmeddler pointed us to is fantastic.

[MN Transplant]

Point them to this thread.  Great reanalysis logic here and the site wxmeddler pointed us to is fantastic.

 

I think they'd need to be registered to see the uploaded images, but yeah, it is a good idea.

[wxdude64]

Great job 'disproving' that reading all.

[aldie 22]

Cold air going out with a bang...27 and dropping...

[mitchnick]

fwiw, I had to go to Annapolis this morning and they had a coating of snow from the system overnight, which I do not believe was forecasted

my daughter sent me some pics from SBY too and they had around a 1/2" overnight

[Avdave]

Cold air going out with a bang...27 and dropping...

may be a little while till we see temps in the mid 20's here again