WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Thought it was supposed to be cold today....hot this morning!! My forecast low was only off by 10 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 My low is higher than my forecast high....Ian is a genius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Was it supposed to be cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Was it supposed to be cold? Yes for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Downtown Baltimore was 40 degrees this morning. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Downtown Baltimore was 40 degrees this morning. Unbelievable. All too believeable, unfortunately. Downtown Balt has REALLY struggled to cool down this season. UHI seems really pronounced here this time around. Maybe no more than usual, but it SEEMS worse, probably because of the several times it has been snowing north and south of downtown literally just a few miles away and drizzling or raining in the city center proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Temp did drop...delayed not denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Temp did drop...delayed not denied In Clarksburg as well. Down to 26.4F after peaking at 33.1F around 3:30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 My low is higher than my forecast high....Ian is a geniusI tell myself that all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I tell myself that all the time Do you answer? Mad genius??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 As modeled now, the next 7 days are ugly. Euro has the mother of all positive NAO day 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Snowcover is less than half of what it was yesterday morning. Still some decent expanses, to gaze at wistfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Snowcover is less than half of what it was yesterday morning. Still some decent expanses, to gaze at wistfully. At least you will always have the fact that every kiss begins with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 At least you will always have the fact that every kiss begins with you. Lol! That would be hard work actually..fortunately not my real name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Awful. Look on the bright side. At least we won't be heartbroken and Wes' weekend forecast keeps getting easier every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Look on the bright side. At least we won't be heartbroken and Wes' weekend forecast keeps getting easier every run. I yield until after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I yield until after Christmas. I am too. Writing came early with this fropa. Maybe some phantom wave develops on the heels. Next snow chance entering MT on the 24th. Laser coming out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Somebody start the January thread. December looks to be dead. Positive AO/NAO is a killer. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Positive AO/NAO is a killer. MDstorm We've had a really impressive last 30 days as far as cold and snow. All with a ragingly +AO/+NAO combination. We're not going to get KUs with that combination, but we don't have to torch either. Last year we torched with a -AO for much of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 We've had a really impressive last 30 days as far as cold and snow. All with a ragingly +AO/+NAO combination. We're not going to get KUs with that combination, but we don't have to torch either. Last year we torched with a -AO for much of the time. The EPO/WPO have helped you and me. Many in this forum have not been helped much, though. I know that the cold has overperformed despite the postive NAO/AO. However, it looks like what could have been a more promising period for the end of December is going to be undone this time by the crappy Atlantic. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The EPO/WPO have helped you and me. Many in this forum have not been helped much, though. I know that the cold has overperformed despite the postive NAO/AO. However, it looks like what could have been a more promising period for the end of December is going to be undone this time by the crappy Atlantic. MDstorm DC is DC when it comes to snow. They've still had the cold weather relative to normal. And although I don't know for sure, I'd wager that DCA's 1.5" of snow before now is still above average for December 16th. I wouldn't seal the fate of the next 2 weeks now by any means. Yes this weekend looks warm/wet and will probably bump us back above normal on the month. But the last week of the month is still a long way out, so I wouldn't commit to anything now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 DC is DC when it comes to snow. They've still had the cold weather relative to normal. And although I don't know for sure, I'd wager that DCA's 1.5" of snow before now is still above average for December 16th. I wouldn't seal the fate of the next 2 weeks now by any means. Yes this weekend looks warm/wet and will probably bump us back above normal on the month. But the last week of the month is still a long way out, so I wouldn't commit to anything now. Agree on all points. This month so far has been a smashing success given the insane +AO and ghastly atlantic. Warmups are to be expected and the vast majority of winter precip is rain here. We get 10" in DJF. But maybe 2" are frozen on average. We've trended colder/wetter in the lr so far. Is it any real surprise IF we go warmer drier? If anything, the week post xmas still looks colder than normal but it's miles away. I'm not thrilled at nothing to track of consequence for a week or more but no biggie. I'm not even joking when I say I hope we do get some 60's this weekend. As long as they aren't permanent feature they are still quite pleasant. Until we get the atlantic to stop being a big net negative we can't really raise expectations beyond what we've already seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Agree on all points. This month so far has been a smashing success given the insane +AO and ghastly atlantic. Warmups are to be expected and the vast majority of winter precip is rain here. We get 10" in DJF. But maybe 2" are frozen on average. We've trended colder/wetter in the lr so far. Is it any real surprise IF we go warmer drier? If anything, the week post xmas still looks colder than normal but it's miles away. I'm not thrilled at nothing to track of consequence for a week or more but no biggie. I'm not even joking when I say I hope we do get some 60's this weekend. As long as they aren't permanent feature they are still quite pleasant. Until we get the atlantic to stop being a big net negative we can't really raise expectations beyond what we've already seen. The 2" frozen out of 10" liquid point is one that many of us forget and is good to remember. Yeah, these type of warmups happen even in the best of winters usually a couple times. As long as it's pretty transitory, I won't complain too much. I don't like to see anything >=50F between 1 Dec and 1 Mar personally, but I know it's going to happen. The Atlantic is our biggest problem going forward. The Pac has been super helpful for over 1 month now, so you've got to expect some relaxation there at least. Still, nothing appears set to lock us into a bad pattern and that continues to be good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The 2" frozen out of 10" liquid point is one that many of us forget and is good to remember. Yeah, these type of warmups happen even in the best of winters usually a couple times. As long as it's pretty transitory, I won't complain too much. I don't like to see anything >=50F between 1 Dec and 1 Mar personally, but I know it's going to happen. The Atlantic is our biggest problem going forward. The Pac has been super helpful for over 1 month now, so you've got to expect some relaxation there at least. Still, nothing appears set to lock us into a bad pattern and that continues to be good news. Personally I think a better way to estimate how common snow is compared to rain is to divide the number of snowy days by the number of precip days in a given month or season. Not perfect for a number of reasons but for practical purposes I think it makes more sense. Otherwise you're left to guess snow ratios and warm systems with high rain totals will inflate the ratio in favor of rain, even though the actual rainfall total is quite inconsequential. Also very cold, high ratio snowfalls with not much liquid won't mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 At least you will always have the fact that every kiss begins with you. Her name is Jared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Her name is Jared Kay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Kay Lol...Woosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Her name is Jared Just call me Zales. Um, ob: 31 and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Lol...Woosh I was doing a drive by. I guess I needed the earlier conversation pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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