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December 2013 obs and discussion


Ian

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Downtown Baltimore was 40 degrees this morning. Unbelievable.

 

All too believeable, unfortunately. Downtown Balt has REALLY struggled to cool down this season. UHI seems really pronounced here this time around. Maybe no more than usual, but it SEEMS worse, probably because of the several times it has been snowing north and south of downtown literally just a few miles away and drizzling or raining in the city center proper.

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 Positive AO/NAO is a killer.

 

MDstorm

We've had a really impressive last 30 days as far as cold and snow.  All with a ragingly +AO/+NAO combination.  We're not going to get KUs with that combination, but we don't have to torch either.  Last year we torched with a -AO for much of the time.  

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We've had a really impressive last 30 days as far as cold and snow.  All with a ragingly +AO/+NAO combination.  We're not going to get KUs with that combination, but we don't have to torch either.  Last year we torched with a -AO for much of the time.  

The EPO/WPO have helped you and me.  Many in this forum have not been helped much, though.  I know that the cold has overperformed despite  the postive NAO/AO.  However, it looks like what could have been a more promising period for the end of December is going to be undone this time by the crappy Atlantic.

 

MDstorm

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The EPO/WPO have helped you and me.  Many in this forum have not been helped much, though.  I know that the cold has overperformed despite  the postive NAO/AO.  However, it looks like what could have been a more promising period for the end of December is going to be undone this time by the crappy Atlantic.

 

MDstorm

DC is DC when it comes to snow.  They've still had the cold weather relative to normal.  And although I don't know for sure, I'd wager that DCA's 1.5" of snow before now is still above average for December 16th.  

 

I wouldn't seal the fate of the next 2 weeks now by any means.  Yes this weekend looks warm/wet and will probably bump us back above normal on the month.  But the last week of the month is still a long way out, so I wouldn't commit to anything now.  

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DC is DC when it comes to snow.  They've still had the cold weather relative to normal.  And although I don't know for sure, I'd wager that DCA's 1.5" of snow before now is still above average for December 16th.  

 

I wouldn't seal the fate of the next 2 weeks now by any means.  Yes this weekend looks warm/wet and will probably bump us back above normal on the month.  But the last week of the month is still a long way out, so I wouldn't commit to anything now.  

 

Agree on all points. This month so far has been a smashing success given the insane +AO and ghastly atlantic. Warmups are to be expected and the vast majority of winter precip is rain here. We get 10" in DJF. But maybe 2" are frozen on average. 

 

We've trended colder/wetter in the lr so far. Is it any real surprise IF we go warmer drier? If anything, the week post xmas still looks colder than normal but it's miles away. I'm not thrilled at nothing to track of consequence for a week or more but no biggie. I'm not even joking when I say I hope we do get some 60's this weekend. As long as they aren't permanent feature they are still quite pleasant.

 

Until we get the atlantic to stop being a big net negative we can't really raise expectations beyond what we've already seen.

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Agree on all points. This month so far has been a smashing success given the insane +AO and ghastly atlantic. Warmups are to be expected and the vast majority of winter precip is rain here. We get 10" in DJF. But maybe 2" are frozen on average. 

 

We've trended colder/wetter in the lr so far. Is it any real surprise IF we go warmer drier? If anything, the week post xmas still looks colder than normal but it's miles away. I'm not thrilled at nothing to track of consequence for a week or more but no biggie. I'm not even joking when I say I hope we do get some 60's this weekend. As long as they aren't permanent feature they are still quite pleasant.

 

Until we get the atlantic to stop being a big net negative we can't really raise expectations beyond what we've already seen.

The 2" frozen out of 10" liquid point is one that many of us forget and is good to remember.  

 

Yeah, these type of warmups happen even in the best of winters usually a couple times.  As long as it's pretty transitory, I won't complain too much.  I don't like to see anything >=50F between 1 Dec and 1 Mar personally, but I know it's going to happen.  

 

The Atlantic is our biggest problem going forward.  The Pac has been super helpful for over 1 month now, so you've got to expect some relaxation there at least.  Still, nothing appears set to lock us into a bad pattern and that continues to be good news.  

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The 2" frozen out of 10" liquid point is one that many of us forget and is good to remember.  

 

Yeah, these type of warmups happen even in the best of winters usually a couple times.  As long as it's pretty transitory, I won't complain too much.  I don't like to see anything >=50F between 1 Dec and 1 Mar personally, but I know it's going to happen.  

 

The Atlantic is our biggest problem going forward.  The Pac has been super helpful for over 1 month now, so you've got to expect some relaxation there at least.  Still, nothing appears set to lock us into a bad pattern and that continues to be good news.  

 

Personally I think a better way to estimate how common snow is compared to rain is to divide the number of snowy days by the number of precip days in a given month or season. Not perfect for a number of reasons but for practical purposes I think it makes more sense. Otherwise you're left to guess snow ratios and warm systems with high rain totals will inflate the ratio in favor of rain, even though the actual rainfall total is quite inconsequential. Also very cold, high ratio snowfalls with not much liquid won't mean much.

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