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December 2013 obs and discussion


Ian

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Widespread 12-18 from oh, n central pa, sne. It's all overunning so it's not complicated verbatim.

We might be in the crosshairs. Or it might be a no nothing. We'll get a pile of looks this week for sure.

ensembles are warmer than the operational at 168 hrs. and the mean has the 0-850 line just south of central VT/NH

here is a great site for ensembles of all the models

the bookmark is on the Euro ensembles at 0-hour for the run but you can get the rest of the models by playing around

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=t85p&HH=0&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

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18z gfs has some whack a doodle storm at 180 range..convective feedback or something?  Look at the qpf..lol.  It get COLDER as the storm goes on.

makes sense Randy

it's a stalled front that slowly sags south over time...rain, then zr, sleet and hopefully accumulating snow before it eventually heads south and east

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It's not all that different from the euro. Slowly sagging boundary with prolific precip riding up from the gulf to basically Canada.

The most interesting feature is slp forming in tx and coming north. Euro and gfs oddly similar at such a long lead.

I think a.more sensible solution is several impulses riding the boundary wherever it sets up. First impulse is driven by the low to the north. Second by the low in tx.

We need to hope the hp to the north isn't in the mid 1020's as shown. We need something pressing into the final wave. I'm sure we'll see some solutions like that this week that will make us all go nuts and then the 0z euro will knock some sense into us.

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nope.  I'd love it--smaller, more frequent snowfalls that still allow you to get out and do what you need to do are great!

 

 

 

high of 41 at noon and it's been dropping steadily since then.  33 now.

It was a joke but then again a lot of you up there don't seem to have any humor. Getting snow is tough. ;)

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I'm 3 miles and 1 exit above Baltimore County.  I can tell you that there is a little less but it looks about the same today in the towns of Freeland, and Maryland Line, Baltimore County as it is here.  I have a 6-8 inch snow pack left.  Average 7.  Here is a picture taken just now of what remains after a high of 40 today. 

post-1187-0-00560800-1387150701_thumb.jp

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I'm 3 miles and 1 exit above Baltimore County.  I can tell you that there is a little less but it looks about the same today in the towns of Freeland, and Maryland Line, Baltimore County as it is here.  I have a 6-8 inch snow pack left.  Average 7.  Here is a picture taken just now of what remains after a high of 40 today. 

Great pic! Well hopefully it wont warm up there too much and you and nw baltimore wx will get more snow soon. Looks great up there, incredible snowpack!

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18z gfs has some whack a doodle storm at 180 range..convective feedback or something?  Look at the qpf..lol.  It get COLDER as the storm goes on.

 

 

OK, Weenie tag me for this-- but I watched a Joe B video-- He states that cold air is undercutting. (Not specific to that run, and cold front will be faster than the ECMWF has been showing)

 

I'd take rain to ice to make it look Christmas like.

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Pretty much 100% in Kingsville, but bare spots a few miles south in the major suburbs.

 

Same here.... there are some bare spots near the pool (I guess cement surfaces melt quicker?), but otherwise it's still pretty much everywhere IMBY with about 2-3" on the ground, in spite of today's mid 40s. Not on the trees anymore though :(

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Anyone in FDK, Winchester, Balto, how much snow you got on the ground? How deep is it? Do you still have 100 percent areal coverage?

I'm guessing 4-5 inches pretty uniform, although I haven't been in the yard since Friday. My deck table still has about 8 inches on it and it in the sun from about noon on. I guess the ground has some heat that percolates to the surface. 100% coverage, no grass to be seen.

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