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December 2013 obs and discussion


Ian

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I'm not confident that things would change much if we went into January with the same pattern we've been in. If not, then I'd rather the pattern broke and brought something different - whether it be warmth or cold and snowy. I really care which one it is.

I'm not moving south yet. That's not for another 20 years or so. Can't wait to be able to fish and golf nearly year round.

I doubt this pattern would be much better in January.

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I doubt this pattern would be much better in January.

That's my thinking. We might average a few degrees cooler then, but I just don't see it producing much differently than it has. Maybe a little more on the margins, but nothing worth writing home about. I'm sure the norther and wester folks would disagree though - and I wouldn't blame them.

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That's my thinking. We might average a few degrees cooler then, but I just don't see it producing much differently than it has. Maybe a little more on the margins, but nothing worth writing home about. I'm sure the norther and wester folks would disagree though - and I wouldn't blame them.

Yeah, and extra 1-3" on a week of 12" wouldn't be so bad probably.

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Bobs clipper drops over .1 for BWI this run and to the N/W. Vort energy again more south and has a low off delmarva that brings higher totals to NE. 

 

Also like the trailing vort that goes thru NVA this run which could bring thru a second wave of shsn/light snow. (Sfc temps around 31-32, but nighttime and cold air preceding the snow should enable what does fall in any kind of rates to stick.) 

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We need another 30-50 miles south with the vort I think before anybody sees measurable. GFS looks kinda nice but we're just on the outside edge looking in at this one Clippers like this have very special ways of being as dry as garrett county on sundays. 

I agree, being on the fringes is not where you want to be preferably. I think if it just comes a bit more south things look okay.

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I suppose a net + for the clipper is timing. Couldnt ask for better than what the gfs shows. If anything falls it will be on subfreezing ground. It's found more ways to snow lately than not. We should keep that in mind going forward.

 

Yeah it looks like good timing with that on the 12z gfs since we don't have much CAD, I wouldn't want it during the day.

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Im a regionalist. These imby events have been nice, but I still favor the widespread events so everyone can share in the fun and stories. I am all over Md and the eastern shore, from Talbot, Dorchester, to Ocean City. I have worked around DC before and still travel there sometimes for work reasons. It is nice to see picts of my haunts covered in snow. When everyone shares in the fun its a sign that winter is here in full force. With that said Ill take another 1 to 3 before a warmup!

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Any good news on the Euro?

does have the clippers, with the 2nd one looking pretty good

unfortunately, I'm using Wunderground maps and the run is not fully updated so I can't see every panel, but 63 hrs looks like an inch+ over much of DCA/BWI, but just don't hold me to it until I see the missing panels too

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Euro isnt as good as the gfs with the Clippers. Vort and energy stays a bit too far north for fun here.

Next weekend is an epic snowstorm from central pa-ne. We get a ton of precip of the wrong type.

this year is shaping up into a 93/94 cousin

not exactly the same, but it is featuring a he!! of a gradient of which we are on the wrong side, albeit "closer" than in 93/94 wrt snowfall

maybe as we get into JAN the wave lengths that HM often references change allowing the gradient to sag south some....we sure don't need much relatively speaking

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