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December 2013 obs and discussion


Ian

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Keeping separate threads is a good idea. Long range and short range are 2 different animals.

I don't think much can happen with the mini-coastal. There is no moisture getting pulled into the system until it deepens off the coast. We would have to have a good bit of cyclogenesis to occur south of our latitude to get some sort of ccb going. I'm not sure it possible in this setup. We would need a crawler and a big block. I could be wrong.

Even if it got cranking surface temps are bad. It would be another mid-upper 30's kind of deal verbatim.

Hopefully Ian and others see more op than me. I'm not feelin it.

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Keeping separate threads is a good idea. Long range and short range are 2 different animals.

I don't think much can happen with the mini-coastal. There is no moisture getting pulled into the system until it deepens off the coast. We would have to have a good bit of cyclogenesis to occur south of our latitude to get some sort of ccb going. I'm not sure it possible in this setup. We would need a crawler and a big block. I could be wrong.

Even if it got cranking surface temps are bad. It would be another mid-upper 30's kind of deal verbatim.

Hopefully Ian and others see more op than me. I'm not feelin it.

 

I like reading the long range stuff but usually don't have much to say myself.  I think it's better to not have it all intermixed if you want to get a quick view of either.  I suppose it might be tricky where the cutoff is but I think an obs thread at least covers out to day 5, maybe day 7.  But that's up to others. 

 

I had basically written the storm threat off already though the GFS is a little closer.  We typically don't do well in these types of setups.. timing might be OK though.

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18z NAM continues to show a westward trend on Monday's coastal. Seems to sit near Cape Hatteras for the last 6-9 hours and strengthens somewhat. Also now shows a weak system in Ohio. Any chance of a merger of sorts around the NC/VA coastline?

I wouldn't worry much about the nam past 48hrs or so. Verbatim, the surface reflection in oh at the end of the run would be very bad. Temps are already marginal. Any type of surface reflection to the nw would mean return surface flow doing even more temp damage.

If the piece of energy even exists, we want the vort and surface reflection to be a good bit further south to help us in some fashion or another.

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