NNE Winter 2013-14 Part I

[powderfreak]

Haha yeah that makes sense. I wanted to take my first turns Christmas week. This isn't looking good for sure right now and is rather distressing for snow lovers.

 

I don't think it looks that bad at all... we'll get our snow chances in this pattern.  Of course the Champlain Valley will have issues as usual in any sort of SW flow precipitation events (like Monday), but we should be able to pick up a couple inches with that.  Then after that system, it gets really cold on a westerly flow and I've noticed the GFS and GGEM seem to be hinting at some sort of orographic snows and a Lake Ontario tap with that cold westerly flow.  I think we'll have flakes in the air, at least in the upslope regions, with that cold shot. 

 

Last December looked much worse at this point with like bare ground to 3,000ft for the first two weeks.  Then it switched and got epically snowy around the holiday period.  But the first half of December last year was concerning, lol.  I think we are in much better shape right now.

[J.Spin]

I don't think it looks that bad at all... we'll get our snow chances in this pattern.  Of course the Champlain Valley will have issues as usual in any sort of SW flow precipitation events (like Monday), but we should be able to pick up a couple inches with that.  Then after that system, it gets really cold on a westerly flow and I've noticed the GFS and GGEM seem to be hinting at some sort of orographic snows and a Lake Ontario tap with that cold westerly flow.  I think we'll have flakes in the air, at least in the upslope regions, with that cold shot.

 

Last December looked much worse at this point with like bare ground to 3,000ft for the first two weeks.  Then it switched and got epically snowy around the holiday period.  But the first half of December last year was concerning, lol.  I think we are in much better shape right now.

 

I really like where we sit – the Mt. Mansfield snowpack at the stake is essentially bang on at average:

 

 

But… I’d argue we’re actually still ahead of average - look at those temperatures from today:

 

 

That means that we’re talking about 16” of dense, settled snow, not fluff, and you know that 16” average snowpack for this date shown in the plot is not comprised entirely of years with 16” settled snow like this.  Granted it’s not going to be quite as deep down in the lower elevations, but that natural base is quite ready for action as soon as we start to put fresh snow on top of it.  Heck, we’ve still got a solid snowpack here in the yard down at 500’, so you know the mountains have it.  And that base is not going to get compressed by new snow, so it’s not going to take many rounds of snow to hit the 24-inch mark.  I can’t say exactly how long it’s going to take with this pattern, but we’d have to regress into something really warm and/or not get any snow to not get there soon.  I think we’ve got a decent shot at getting in on the early side of average, or at least around average this year:

 

 

All it’s going to take is for one of these events to hit moderate snowstorm status and we’re probably going to get there, or it could happen from a number of smaller events.  We know how easily Mt. Mansfield can pull in 8” or so once things get rolling.  That big November storm we had this year was a huge gain all around, and we are definitely reaping the rewards.  I know the talk in the main threads is typically about how November doesn’t matter in terms of snow, but that’s not the case up here.  If we miss out on November snows, we’re in a hole and we have to climb out of that.  This year we don’t have to do that, so that’s a very good place to be.

[ono]

 

Last December looked much worse at this point with like bare ground to 3,000ft for the first two weeks.  Then it switched and got epically snowy around the holiday period.  But the first half of December last year was concerning, lol.  I think we are in much better shape right now.

Excellent point.  Snowfall in the northern Greens to build base is a major consideration. 

 

It's been a pretty solid early start.  After (safely) skiing in the trees this past/last weekend in November( at Smuggs, likely right below that 24" mark J.Spin speaks of- but Doc Demsey's is a pretty well-maintained glade that catches snow early season), things are pretty solid.  A few lulls or mixed-events are not really that much to worry about.  The Champlain Valley is a whole different world to the mountains.

 

Side note/observation:

The Champlain Valley has such a low elevation (a few hundred feet for much of the populated areas).  It reminds me of living in Western Mass in the CT River Valley- you'd head up from ~300ft to the hilltowns @1000+ ft  (not yet in the Berkshires ).  A half-hour, 15 mile drive up into the hills for a hike, and you'd go from a mid-winter mush ground and sporadic snow patches everywhere to 10-18" solid snowpack and frozen solid at 1200-1400ft in places like Goshen, MA.  General stores have snowmobile parts stocked, etc.  These are the hilltowns, not the Berkshires.  Not really any mountains, just high elevation hills. Those places have consistently high elevation and get/hold snow like crazy. 

 

Still amazes me how much elevation makes a difference, even in marginal places like western MA.

 

 

[Hitman]

This is the earliest I remember being able to ski in the trees, albeit in my case, the smooth mtn bike trails. Much faster start than last year when things didn't get going till around Xmas. Very happy where we are sitting.

[dendrite]

The cold fropa is about to come through, but we're still wedged into the mid 30s.

[powderfreak]

Dumping up here...heavy rain changed to snow at 1000ft elevation. These are the largest snowflakes I can remember seeing in a long time. Fist sized aggregates.

[MaineJayhawk]

Lucky dawg, PF! I have a 36F heavy rain happening.

[eyewall]

I don't think it looks that bad at all... we'll get our snow chances in this pattern.  Of course the Champlain Valley will have issues as usual in any sort of SW flow precipitation events (like Monday), but we should be able to pick up a couple inches with that.  Then after that system, it gets really cold on a westerly flow and I've noticed the GFS and GGEM seem to be hinting at some sort of orographic snows and a Lake Ontario tap with that cold westerly flow.  I think we'll have flakes in the air, at least in the upslope regions, with that cold shot. 

 

Last December looked much worse at this point with like bare ground to 3,000ft for the first two weeks.  Then it switched and got epically snowy around the holiday period.  But the first half of December last year was concerning, lol.  I think we are in much better shape right now.

 

Yeah I was fortunate to be here for the snowy portion on a holiday visit last year. The 20" depth in Williston between 2 events .

[SJonesWX]

The cold fropa is about to come through, but we're still wedged into the mid 30s.

amazing temp difference just 70 miles south. down here it is nearly 60 and very swampy

[powderfreak]

Nice burst of snow this morning.

 

[mahk_webstah]

The cold fropa is about to come through, but we're still wedged into the mid 30s.

will we get a jump up post front before the cold comes later?

[eyewall]

Nice burst of snow this morning.

 

snow.JPG

 

Awesome

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.67” L.E.

 

Precipitation was a mixed bag of snow, sleet, and rain at observations time today.  The precipitation was rather heavy in intensity and there was a dense, slushy accumulation of 0.3” on the snowboard.  Another tenth of an inch fell after clearing the board, but the precipitation seemed to be tapering off.  It looks like the next chance for snow is tonight as a wave of low pressure rides up the cold front that came through.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.13 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 2.3

Snow Density: 43.3% H2O

Temperature: 34.3 F

Sky: Snow/Sleet/Rain

Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

[tamarack]

Finally melted the block of ice in my catch-pail and sent the multi-day report - 3.16" for 11/24 thru 12/6 - to cocorahs.  Low for that period was -1, and the high looked to be 39, which seemed way too modest; lowest max I could find for the 11/27 torch-deluge was BML with 46 - cad max for mby?  Had a much nicer drive east than the LES-fest westbound, only had fog (for 500 miles) and a bit of zr at the very end.  Still 1" left from Monday's event. 

 

Saw a few trees that lost out to the winds with that 11/27 downpour, including the funky-looking big pine on the corner of our road.

[ono]

 BY MONDAY MORNING...SNOW
EXPECTED TO BE FALLING ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO BY DAYBREAK...AND SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION TO FOLLOW. LOOK FOR A RATHER MESSY COMMUTE MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 238 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS THINKING AS MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG WARM AND COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS SNOW THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO TRANSITION CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS TO RAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS PRECIP COULD STAY ALL SNOW OR
HAVE A SLIGHT MIX WITH RAIN...BUT THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE FRONT MAKES IT. DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
RAIN THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND ISOLATED SO
HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...ATTENDING COLD FRONT SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST WITH FALLING
SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS TURNING PRECIP BACK TO SNOW...THOUGH
WILL BE DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT. OVERALL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY COULD SEE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SO STAY TUNED THIS WEEKEND AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

 

not so bad sounding as of now...

[eyewall]

 BY MONDAY MORNING...SNOW

EXPECTED TO BE FALLING ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA...WITH

ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO BY DAYBREAK...AND SOME ADDITIONAL

ACCUMULATION TO FOLLOW. LOOK FOR A RATHER MESSY COMMUTE MONDAY

MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 238 PM EST FRIDAY...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST FROM MONDAY

ONWARDS IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS THINKING AS MEDIUM

RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN REGARDS TO THE OVERALL LARGE

SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE

GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG WARM AND COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO

MONDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS SNOW THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO TRANSITION CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN

AREAS TO RAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS PRECIP COULD STAY ALL SNOW OR

HAVE A SLIGHT MIX WITH RAIN...BUT THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW

FAR NORTH THE FRONT MAKES IT. DURING THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO

RAIN THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS

ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND ISOLATED SO

HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING

HOURS...ATTENDING COLD FRONT SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST WITH FALLING

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS TURNING PRECIP BACK TO SNOW...THOUGH

WILL BE DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT. OVERALL FROM SUNDAY NIGHT

THROUGH MONDAY COULD SEE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS

OF THE AREA SO STAY TUNED THIS WEEKEND AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

 

not so bad sounding as of now...

 

Yeah not bad and of course I like the mention of snow squalls being possible the middle of next week

[ono]

Yeah not bad and of course I like the mention of snow squalls being possible the middle of next week

 

 Have you been able to experience one of the really big upslope events?    

[powderfreak]

 Have you been able to experience one of the really big upslope events?    

 

I think he was visiting up here during the huge February 24-26 event in 2012.  That is my new benchmark for upslope storms.  I remember wading through snow that was chest deep at times to get to the snowstake at 3,000ft and found roughly 36" of new snow.  I will never forget the struggle to get in and out of that snow stake location which is a horizontal traverse.

[ono]

I think he was visiting up here during the huge February 24-26 event in 2012.  That is my new benchmark for upslope storms.  I remember wading through snow that was chest deep at times to get to the snowstake at 3,000ft and found roughly 36" of new snow.  I will never forget the struggle to get in and out of that snow stake location which is a horizontal traverse.

 

That would be the most epic time to visit- talk about luck.  Dumped an 1-2" an hour all day and most of the night- even down in Waterbury Center it was upsloping most of the night. Then bluebird.  

[powderfreak]

That would be the most epic time to visit- talk about luck.  Dumped an 1-2" an hour all day and most of the night- even down in Waterbury Center it was upsloping most of the night. Then bluebird.  

 

Yeah that's the new grand-daddy of upslope events in my book. 

 

3 feet of new snow and then bluebird leads to this on Mansfield... February 26, 2012.

 

[ono]

that was the most intense 36 hour snowfall you could ask for when you take into account snow quality- it was almost purely unaffected ultralight blower.  

 

Though, I don't know what I'd want more- that day from 2012, or the ~Feb 19-24 2009 (I think it was 2009) event.

 

Smuggs reported 61" in 6 days- not the intensity of snowfall from the 2012 event, but a lot of snow fell that week.  I wonder what Stowe, Jay, Bolton and the MRV resorts reported.

 

PF- what was your take on this particular stretch relative to other long-duration upslope events? Was this the benchmark for long-duration events in your memory.   I'd like to see what the models were putting out prior to this (and the Feb 2012) event.  J.Spin- do you have stats from that week from the resorts?

 

I love this video made by Smuggs for that week (Feb 20-26).

 

if I were looking for a timeshare in N VT, around Feb 20th would be the week I'd choose.

[powderfreak]

that was the most intense 36 hour snowfall you could ask for when you take into account snow quality- it was almost purely unaffected ultralight blower.  

 

Though, I don't know what I'd want more- that day from 2012, or the ~Feb 19-24 2009 (I think it was 2009) event.

 

Smuggs reported 61" in 6 days- not the intensity of snowfall from the 2012 event, but a lot of snow fell that week.  I wonder what Stowe, Jay, Bolton and the MRV resorts reported.

 

PF- what was your take on this particular stretch relative to other long-duration upslope events? Was this the benchmark for long-duration events in your memory.   I'd like to see what the models were putting out prior to this (and the Feb 2012) event.  J.Spin- do you have stats from that week from the resorts?

 

I love this video made by Smuggs for that week (Feb 20-26).

 

if I were looking for a timeshare in N VT, around Feb 20th would be the week I'd choose.

 

I'll have to look later... I'm pretty sure J.Spin has a good summary of it on his website:

 

http://jandeproductions.com/weather.html

 

I was actually injured during that (recovering from a dislocated knee) but was working at the mountain, just not skiing.  Its odd, I don't really remember much from that winter at all...being off the skis really took me out of touch with it to some extent.  I do know we had less at Stowe than the west side spots of Smuggs/Bolton (I vaguely remember like 48-54" range on Mansfield, which I guess is still nothing to sneeze at in 6 days, haha). 

 

Actually I just went and looked at J.Spin's site and found the event... http://jandeproductions.com/2009/22FEB09weather.html

++++++++++++++++++

Here are some of the two-storm totals for local areas on the Green Mountain spine, listed north to south:

 

Jay Peak:  68”

Smugg’s:  54”

Stowe: 52”

Bolton 72”

++++++++++++++++++

 

And J.Spin also had a comment copied from Bolton's snow report...

 

Six Feet of Snow.

 

“Looking back at the log we keep of snowfall totals for the year I can hardly believe the last six days. It seems as if I am dreaming. We have measured snow of a foot or more on four of the last six days. We have a six day total of six feet. That's taller than most people. That's two yards of snow.”

[eyewall]

I think he was visiting up here during the huge February 24-26 event in 2012.  That is my new benchmark for upslope storms.  I remember wading through snow that was chest deep at times to get to the snowstake at 3,000ft and found roughly 36" of new snow.  I will never forget the struggle to get in and out of that snow stake location which is a horizontal traverse.

 

You are correct. I was here on my second visit for that and chased it. The day after I went skiing at Bolton in some of the best conditions I have ever experienced. Here is video I took during the snow:

 

And then last year I lucked out with the 14" storm followed up only a few days later with this one in the CPV:

[tamarack]

Finally melted the block of ice in my catch-pail and sent the multi-day report - 3.16" for 11/24 thru 12/6 - to cocorahs.  Low for that period was -1, and the high looked to be 39, which seemed way too modest; lowest max I could find for the 11/27 torch-deluge was BML with 46 - cad max for mby?  Had a much nicer drive east than the LES-fest westbound, only had fog (for 500 miles) and a bit of zr at the very end.  Still 1" left from Monday's event. 

 

Saw a few trees that lost out to the winds with that 11/27 downpour, including the funky-looking big pine on the corner of our road.

 

Saw Farmington's temps for the downpour day (11/27) - 39.4.  Evidently the northerly part of the foothills held some cool air thru the event - long way from dryslot's turkey-cooker 62.  Forgot to note that the winds of 11/24 or 27 also flipped sizable logs that were meant to hold the tarp over my big pile of split firewood, so that the stuff is now full of ice/snow from latter events

[Lava Rock]

Just a dusting last night.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.68” L.E.

 

That tenth of an inch of snow/sleet from yesterday morning after observations time was the only additional snow to report from yesterday morning’s event, and as far as I can tell, nothing of significance fell around here last night.

 

Details from the 8:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 28.6 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

 

There were flurries around when I made my observations about 15 minutes ago, and I couldn’t find much reference to them in the BTV NWS discussion, but some light reflections have pushed into the area on radar:

 

 

This piece from the near term forecast discussion might be what’s going on:

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

 

...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT DEPARTS INTO THE ATLANTIC...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC TO BUILD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN N-NW FLOW. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW COULD KEEP ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES/SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TRRN...ESP IN THE ADKS.

 

The next opportunity for snow appears to be in the Sunday night/Monday timeframe, with the BTV NWS short term discussion from this morning suggesting something in the 2-5” range:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 403 AM EST SATURDAY...

 

AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST...TOWARDS THE NJ COAST. ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOWING COLDER TEMPS/AIRMASS AND LESS CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX ON MONDAY. ONLY AREAS TO SEE TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE SRN VT. CPV AND SLV WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPS AT THE SFC RIDE IN ON SOUTHERLY FLOW...RESULTING IN RASN MIXING TO ALL RA FOR MOST OF THE VALLEYS. TOWARDS EVENING...TEMPS WILL BEGIN COOLING AND PRECIP WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW. WITH COLDER MODEL SOLNS...EXPECT GENERALLY 2-5 INCHES PSBL BY MONDAY EVENING.

[wxeyeNH]

No snow here from the wave last night a few periods of a few flakes/sleet pellets in the air. The models seemed to be about 40 miles too far north with the precip. I really expected 1-3" and I blew it. Lots of people call me for my forecasts including several local snow contractors. I hate being so wrong. Not even a trace. Snow line I guess was around Brian's 25 miles to my south. Urrgghh!!

[tamarack]

As expected, last night's flakes remained south, though it's looking good for a couple inches Monday.  A few days late, but it appears that Nov 2013 was my coldest of 16 here, avg 30.2F.  The 4.39" precip was a td below avg, with the 11/27 downpour making up for early month dryness.

[J.Spin]

Actually I just went and looked at J.Spin's site and found the event... http://jandeproductions.com/2009/22FEB09weather.html

++++++++++++++++++

Here are some of the two-storm totals for local areas on the Green Mountain spine, listed north to south:

 

Jay Peak:  68”

Smugg’s:  54”

Stowe: 52”

Bolton 72”

++++++++++++++++++

 

And J.Spin also had a comment copied from Bolton's snow report...

 

Six Feet of Snow.

 

“Looking back at the log we keep of snowfall totals for the year I can hardly believe the last six days. It seems as if I am dreaming. We have measured snow of a foot or more on four of the last six days. We have a six day total of six feet. That's taller than most people. That's two yards of snow.”

 

Thanks for grabbing that PF, I didn’t get in until late last night (actually, it was somewhat skiing related of course as we were in town at the Flynn with the boys for this year’s Warren Miller movie).  Anyway, that was a nice stretch, with what based on my records was two back to back storm cycles that dropped 33.4” here at the house.  From the 2008-2009 Weather Page:

 

Storm 1:  2/18/09-2/21/09 – 15.2”

Storm 2:  2/22/09-2/24/09 – 18.2”

 

And of course our valley totals were more than doubled up on the mountain, with Bolton Valley getting the six feet in six days.  I’ve got some of our relevant Bolton Valley trip reports from the period linked below:

 

Bolton Valley, VT 19FEB2009

Bolton Valley, VT 21FEB2009

Bolton Valley, VT 24FEB2009

 

Actually, it was nice to look back at those outings, it made me realize that the profile picture I use here at American Weather actually came from that outing on the 24^th.  It’s the first image below, and I added a couple of others as well - man did the boys look little back then!

 

 

 

 

[J.Spin]

I saw Powderfreak’s pictures from Stowe yesterday in the ski thread, and realized that I hadn’t looked into the snow totals for the Vermont ski areas from this most recent event.  With the way things were forecast, I would have thought that the southern half of the state would see the larger numbers, but it seems that you really had to go all the way to the very southern extent of the state to Mount Snow to get into that increased snow – there was a bit of a hole in the snowfall in south-central Vermont.  The north to south listing of 48-hr snowfall totals is below, which should cover the accumulations that came through yesterday morning, as well as those that came through later in the day:

 

Jay Peak: 3”

Smuggler’s Notch: 2”

Stowe: 2”

Bolton Valley: 2”

Sugarbush: 0”

Pico: 2”

Killington: 2”

Okemo: T”

Bromley: 1”

Magic Mountain: 1”

Stratton: 1”

Mount Snow: 3”

 

The pictures from Stowe looked great PF – I’m guessing a couple to a few inches over a beautifully smooth base?  That’s Mt. Mansfield doing its usual thing.  We were up at Bolton Valley today picking up our passes, and I can send along the current snowpack observations.  The snowpack is certainly down a bit from when I was last up there on Sunday.  At the Timberline Base at 1,500’, the snowpack looks like it’s a couple of inches, but it quickly ramps up as you head up to the Village at 2,100’ and it’s several inches up there.  There’s plenty of base on the upper mountain for good turns on the moderately-pitched natural snow trails with whatever comes next, but a nice synoptic storm would really get things rolling.  It’s really been a slow week for snowfall, which is evidenced by the fact that the averages have now caught up here at the house – as of tomorrow, the average snowfall for this point in the season reaches 19.0” according to my data set, which is exactly where we are at the moment.

 

On that note, it does look like there’s the potential for some snow tomorrow night, which could keep us ahead of average for a short reprieve.  The BTV NWS discussion seems consistent in suggesting a 3-5” or 1-3” sort of situation.  One change I did notice is that the mention of mixed precipitation has been removed from our forecast now.