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NNE Winter 2013-14 Part I


klw

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It almost looks like its raining at the Sugarbush base area web cam (37F degrees there) and MPV at 1,200ft has been -RN with 0.05" liquid last hour.

 

All across the Spine though its mid to upper 30s in the mid-slope elevation belt...with 40F at 1,100ft and 39F at 1,600ft around the Mansfield area.  Bolton at 2,100ft is 34F.  Meanwhile its 33F here at home though...colder in the valley.

 

attachicon.gifwarm_temps_Dec29.jpg

It was when you posted that but changed to snow shortly after 6 pm. Snowed moderately for a couple hours and then changed back to light rain. Have about 1-2" slush otg.

As of now this is a bust. I was hoping to break out my new boards tomorrow. Not looking good.

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Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.25” L.E.

 

There was nothing to report here yesterday evening beyond the mixed precipitation I saw at around 6:00 P.M., because it never changed fully over to snow and didn’t accumulate.  Fortunately we didn’t get any additional ice, and it sounded like yesterday’s precipitation even brought down a bit more out of the trees.  There was 0.25” of liquid in the gauge this morning, and a tenth of an inch of snow on the snowboard that looks like it came fairly recently in association with this morning’s flakes.

 

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 27.7 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

 

The north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas is below; there was really nothing to report in the northern part of the state except off to the east at Burke, and heading south, it looks like accumulations begin around the Mad River Valley area and peak down around Okemo:

 

Jay Peak: 0”

Burke: 3”

Smuggler’s Notch: 0”

Stowe: T

Bolton Valley: 0”

Mad River Glen: 4”

Sugarbush: 6”

Pico: 7”

Killington: 7”

Okemo: 10”

Bromley: 7”

Magic Mountain: 7”

Stratton: 6”

Mount Snow: 7”

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7.8" of mashed potatoes.

 

Will take some pics while plowing today--quite the scene out there.

Sounds like you're the big winner in the VT category.  I figured you would do ok as it was already all snow on 302 by the Butterfield parking lot when I came through around 3:30 yesterday.  Ended up just under 2" at my house and it was starting to freeze fast. 

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It was sounding like that storm was going to be more focused on the south listening to Tim Kelly yesterday on NECN, but the overnight run of the ECMWF was certainly intriguing for up in this area.

 

 

The long term discussion from BTV:

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 426 AM EST MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER

THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL THEN RETREAT TO

THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME

DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION

AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT

OVERRIDES THE COLD ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE. ON THURSDAY...THE

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST FROM

THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS

LOW... WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL IN

BRINGING THIS LOW EASTWARD. THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF MODEL

IS FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS AND AND DIGS FURTHER SOUTH AND IS

SHARPER THAN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS MODEL. PREFER THE SLOWER

MOVEMENT OF THE ECMWF MODEL...AS THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE TOO

FAST. HOWEVER... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING THAT SNOW

THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE

INTO FRIDAY. THUS...BOTH MODELS SHOWING THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY LONG

DURATION EVENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS

THE REGION BY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE COLD ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL BE IN

PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING A DRY

FLUFFY SNOW AND NOT A WET SNOW WITH A HIGH WATER CONTENT.

THUS...THIS COULD RESULT IN SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS OF 20-1 OR

25-1. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A BETTER IDEA AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE

EVENT. HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...IF THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT...THEN SNOW COULD

LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO

BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER

EXPECTED.

 

In short the Euro has been much more aggressive with a bombed out system as compared to the weaker and more progressive storm modeled in the GFS. While Eurowx is a cheap way to see the Euro it lacks vorticity maps which would be nice to see.

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Sounds like you're the big winner in the VT category.  I figured you would do ok as it was already all snow on 302 by the Butterfield parking lot when I came through around 3:30 yesterday.  Ended up just under 2" at my house and it was starting to freeze fast. 

 

Yeah, pretty good spot here for this past one.  I saw some higher reports from nearby and a little south--Tunbridge, Royalton, Barnard--but we did alright.

 

Cold front coming through--down to 27 from 31 early this morn.

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11.0" of 18:1 fluff at my place, lovely dendrites and aggregates sailing by, about 8" in 4 hr between 7 and 11 last eve.  The 5"  by 9 PM was 15:1 and the 6" after that was 21:1, total storm LE of 0.61".  That number was right in the forecast range, but the ratio meant a good bust, as the S.Franklin forecast had been 4-8".  Snowpack up to 22" at 6 AM but will be closer to 20 by this evening as the fluff settles.  Only the 3rd time in 16 yr to reach 20" in Dec.  (2003 - briefly - and 2007 were the others.)

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