Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

NNE Winter 2013-14 Part I


klw

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

12z NAM and GFS are advisory level snows for most of the VT crowd and warning snows for our NH/ME brethren for Sun into Mon. Keeps ticking QPF northwest...we'll have to see what Dr No says.

Dr. No?  Can you elucidate?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dr. No?  Can you elucidate?

 

"Dr. No" is slang for the ECMWF model – due to its typical consistency, people will take it as the final word (I guess it’s also one of the later models to come out each cycle) and if some models were showing potential storms/snow, the ECMWF would often squelch those preferable, yet often less realistic, prognostications, and there would be “no” storm or “no” snow for whomever.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

C'mon fellas. We are due for an upside surprise up here. Doing my snow dance tonight.

Flakes in the air all day today, and the winter look is back. Picked up maybe a quarter inch of blower.

 

Upslope machine has been lightly ticking away today... nickle and dime but its been nice to see on a day that not much was supposed to happen.  Winding down some, but its always interesting to me to see the little pulses increase and decrease.  Its a very interesting phenomenon as it sort of can stick around for days at a time but just come in bits and pieces.  This is pretty low level stuff and the radar can't see as well to the east, so these streamers could be heading a decent ways downstream.  It has been favoring the Bolton-Mansfield stretch on radar, but its hard to tell due to the limited radar coverage NE and SE in low level stuff. I'm surprised at the Bolton snowfall amounts...they usually run more in line with Smuggs during these more west slope events...our upper elevations are at 9" so far in this 2 day period and Smuggs with 12"+, yet Bolton is only showing 4-5".

 

 

 

December%2027.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Upslope machine has been lightly ticking away today... nickle and dime but its been nice to see on a day that not much was supposed to happen.  Winding down some, but its always interesting to me to see the little pulses increase and decrease.  Its a very interesting phenomenon as it sort of can stick around for days at a time but just come in bits and pieces.  This is pretty low level stuff and the radar can't see as well to the east, so these streamers could be heading a decent ways downstream.  It has been favoring the Bolton-Mansfield stretch on radar, but its hard to tell due to the limited radar coverage NE and SE in low level stuff. I'm surprised at the Bolton snowfall amounts...they usually run more in line with Smuggs during these more west slope events...our upper elevations are at 9" so far in this 2 day period and Smuggs with 12"+, yet Bolton is only showing 4-5".

 

 

 

December%2027.gif

We haven't accumulated much down here, but just having the flakes in the air makes me happy. Well, a foot of synoptic base snow would make me happier still, but I'll take what I can get right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Upslope machine has been lightly ticking away today... nickle and dime but its been nice to see on a day that not much was supposed to happen.  Winding down some, but its always interesting to me to see the little pulses increase and decrease.  Its a very interesting phenomenon as it sort of can stick around for days at a time but just come in bits and pieces.  This is pretty low level stuff and the radar can't see as well to the east, so these streamers could be heading a decent ways downstream.  It has been favoring the Bolton-Mansfield stretch on radar, but its hard to tell due to the limited radar coverage NE and SE in low level stuff. I'm surprised at the Bolton snowfall amounts...they usually run more in line with Smuggs during these more west slope events...our upper elevations are at 9" so far in this 2 day period and Smuggs with 12"+, yet Bolton is only showing 4-5".

 

I figured that Bolton Valley was reporting conservatively based on the totals coming in from Stowe and Smugg’s, but we were up today for some turns and I think their numbers make sense.  The depths we measured today were in areas undisturbed since the big mixed system earlier in the week, so they will actually represent the settled totals since roughly Tuesday.  In the Village at 2,100’ we generally found 5-6” of snow, and I wouldn’t say there were any significant increases in that depth until we got above 2,500’.  Our tour topped out today around 2,750’, and the depth was hitting 7”.  One might be able to tack on another inch up near the summits at 3,100’ or so, but add on a couple of inches from earlier in the week, and the 4-5” numbers seem roughly correct.  I’m surprised to see that the 7-day total is 4-5” as well, because that definitely seems a bit low.

 

They were getting some decent snow all afternoon while we were up there, certainly not heavy, but we had to clean a good half inch or so off that car after touring for a couple of hours.  I’d say that for whatever reason, the snow just isn’t as robust as what’s been hitting Stowe and Smugg’s, so Bolton’s snowfall is in that next tier down.  With that said, the 5-7” we encountered today was silky smooth and plenty of depth for appropriate terrain with the fatties.  I’ve added a few shots from this afternoon below:

 

27DEC13C.jpg

 

27DEC13B.jpg

 

27DEC13A.jpg

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How we looking for Sunday?

I like a 3-6" forecast in general...more towards the 3" side up here and 4-5" down your way. I'd put Killington/Okemo as the favored spots now with the right mix of precip and cold air...maybe 6-7" there. This is at elevations of 1000-1500ft and higher...below 1,000ft could be more marginal depending on how warm temps get tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I like a 3-6" forecast in general...more towards the 3" side up here and 4-5" down your way. I'd put Killington/Okemo as the favored spots now with the right mix of precip and cold air...maybe 6-7" there. This is at elevations of 1000-1500ft and higher...below 1,000ft could be more marginal depending on how warm temps get tomorrow.

Thanks.

I may be dating myself, but I was hoping you would say "looking good Louis, feeling good billy ray".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Event totals: 0.7” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

I measured the snowfall from the most recent minor system in two rounds yesterday, 0.3” of snow at 12:00 P.M., and then 0.4” at 9:00 P.M.  That may be it for the event, as there was nothing on the board this morning.  For both rounds of snow, all I could pull out was a trace of liquid because it was so fluffy, so a trace will have to do it for this one.  Based on the reports from PF and j24 in the Stowe area, it seems like valley snowfall has been a bit stronger to the north of here.

 

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.7 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 22.6 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches

 

As it stands right now, season snowfall is about 4” behind average for the date, although at 25.5”, this month’s snowfall is still roughly 17” from reaching an average December.  This month has been gaining some ground though, as it just passed December 2011 (24.7”) to move up into the third spot from the bottom.  So although snowfall has seemed a bit lean, it could certainly be worse.  Snowpack is doing reasonably well at 8.5” as of this morning’s observations, with the average in my data at ~10”.  Total liquid for the month is at 3.90”.  For what it’s worth, even if this season has not been especially prolific so far in terms of snowfall, it’s had quite the frequency of storms.  I noticed this when recently starting the second column in my signature, but the 2013-2014 season is now the fastest to reach 20 storms with accumulating snow in my records, reaching that mark on December 26th.  That’s faster than the prodigious 2007-2008 (December 30th) and 2008-2009 (January 5th) seasons.  Interestingly, although 2012-2013 didn’t have the same feel as those seasons, the 20 storm mark was also reached fairly quickly (January 2nd).

 

But, the month isn’t over yet, and it looks like we could get some snowfall from this next system.  The 00Z ECMWF seems to have come more in line with the GFS and NAM, at least with respect to QPF up in Northern Vermont.  Also, all three models show some additional moisture coming through on the back side of the storm.  Our current point forecast calls for snowfall in the 2-4” range, with a third of an inch of liquid.  Unfortunately, activity in the New England sub forum thread for the storm is trickling off somewhat with the latest trends, so there’s not as much informative discussion there from the meteorologists as there was a couple of days ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have to say I am looking forward to a little melting today to try and get rid of this 2ft. plow burm that is solid ice right now. It is making it difficult to get to the entrance to my apartment. I have some of it chipped away now but it is a ton of work for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Saturday morning but no special weather statements, watches or warnings for us in Central NH.  No one seems to be talking about it but it looks good for a quick punch for my area. Over half a foot of snow seems likely to me.

Same here, although 6+" may be ambitious for my area with the threat of mixing

I was thinking my lack of watch was due to that, but since you lack one too, who knows

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...