dryslot Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Since winterlike temps took over on 12/8, my daily avg is 20/3, which is 9.1F below my avg for those 19 days. This is probably some of the thickest ice this early, On a lot of lakes and ponds down this way in a long, long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Since winterlike temps took over on 12/8, my daily avg is 20/3, which is 9.1F below my avg for those 19 days. Wow! 9.1 below average is nuts for a three week period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 12z NAM and GFS are advisory level snows for most of the VT crowd and warning snows for our NH/ME brethren for Sun into Mon. Keeps ticking QPF northwest...we'll have to see what Dr No says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 12z NAM and GFS are advisory level snows for most of the VT crowd and warning snows for our NH/ME brethren for Sun into Mon. Keeps ticking QPF northwest...we'll have to see what Dr No says. Dr. No? Can you elucidate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Wow! 9.1 below average is nuts for a three week period. And much preferable to JFM 2010, when CAR was +9.1 for 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Dr. No? Can you elucidate? "Dr. No" is slang for the ECMWF model – due to its typical consistency, people will take it as the final word (I guess it’s also one of the later models to come out each cycle) and if some models were showing potential storms/snow, the ECMWF would often squelch those preferable, yet often less realistic, prognostications, and there would be “no” storm or “no” snow for whomever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Snow has started up again...radar just lit up from the Dacks into the northern/central Greens. Steady light snow with phenomenal snow growth...big fluffy flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Winter Storm Watch posted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Just got home and found a fluffy 1.5" on the snow board...two day total of 4.1" at home. Really has freshed stuff up out there. Likes more like winter and less like a defunct ice rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 2.5" since 5am today at 1,500ft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The VT crowd wants the 18z NAM to come true... it keeps amping up the QPF in our neck of the woods. I think this is still for Dendrite to Coldfront though with max snowfall...I'd take Advisory level snows and run though. 3" is all I want, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I feel a VT overperformer is in our midst...either the Sunday night storm or the 3rd....book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 C'mon fellas. We are due for an upside surprise up here. Doing my snow dance tonight. Flakes in the air all day today, and the winter look is back. Picked up maybe a quarter inch of blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 C'mon fellas. We are due for an upside surprise up here. Doing my snow dance tonight. Flakes in the air all day today, and the winter look is back. Picked up maybe a quarter inch of blower. Upslope machine has been lightly ticking away today... nickle and dime but its been nice to see on a day that not much was supposed to happen. Winding down some, but its always interesting to me to see the little pulses increase and decrease. Its a very interesting phenomenon as it sort of can stick around for days at a time but just come in bits and pieces. This is pretty low level stuff and the radar can't see as well to the east, so these streamers could be heading a decent ways downstream. It has been favoring the Bolton-Mansfield stretch on radar, but its hard to tell due to the limited radar coverage NE and SE in low level stuff. I'm surprised at the Bolton snowfall amounts...they usually run more in line with Smuggs during these more west slope events...our upper elevations are at 9" so far in this 2 day period and Smuggs with 12"+, yet Bolton is only showing 4-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looks like attitash /n conway gets nice 6-10 for sunday ...heading up sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Upslope machine has been lightly ticking away today... nickle and dime but its been nice to see on a day that not much was supposed to happen. Winding down some, but its always interesting to me to see the little pulses increase and decrease. Its a very interesting phenomenon as it sort of can stick around for days at a time but just come in bits and pieces. This is pretty low level stuff and the radar can't see as well to the east, so these streamers could be heading a decent ways downstream. It has been favoring the Bolton-Mansfield stretch on radar, but its hard to tell due to the limited radar coverage NE and SE in low level stuff. I'm surprised at the Bolton snowfall amounts...they usually run more in line with Smuggs during these more west slope events...our upper elevations are at 9" so far in this 2 day period and Smuggs with 12"+, yet Bolton is only showing 4-5". We haven't accumulated much down here, but just having the flakes in the air makes me happy. Well, a foot of synoptic base snow would make me happier still, but I'll take what I can get right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 1.9" today. Salted the sheet of ice that is our driveway just before the snow started so hopefully it is digging little holes under the snow. Still have occasional light snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Had some snow showers this morning before some nice clearing. The afternoon was pleasant as all get-out and light snow is once again falling here at the moment.. Getting some mixed signals for Sunday night--don't want this thing coming too close, by golly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Upslope machine has been lightly ticking away today... nickle and dime but its been nice to see on a day that not much was supposed to happen. Winding down some, but its always interesting to me to see the little pulses increase and decrease. Its a very interesting phenomenon as it sort of can stick around for days at a time but just come in bits and pieces. This is pretty low level stuff and the radar can't see as well to the east, so these streamers could be heading a decent ways downstream. It has been favoring the Bolton-Mansfield stretch on radar, but its hard to tell due to the limited radar coverage NE and SE in low level stuff. I'm surprised at the Bolton snowfall amounts...they usually run more in line with Smuggs during these more west slope events...our upper elevations are at 9" so far in this 2 day period and Smuggs with 12"+, yet Bolton is only showing 4-5". I figured that Bolton Valley was reporting conservatively based on the totals coming in from Stowe and Smugg’s, but we were up today for some turns and I think their numbers make sense. The depths we measured today were in areas undisturbed since the big mixed system earlier in the week, so they will actually represent the settled totals since roughly Tuesday. In the Village at 2,100’ we generally found 5-6” of snow, and I wouldn’t say there were any significant increases in that depth until we got above 2,500’. Our tour topped out today around 2,750’, and the depth was hitting 7”. One might be able to tack on another inch up near the summits at 3,100’ or so, but add on a couple of inches from earlier in the week, and the 4-5” numbers seem roughly correct. I’m surprised to see that the 7-day total is 4-5” as well, because that definitely seems a bit low. They were getting some decent snow all afternoon while we were up there, certainly not heavy, but we had to clean a good half inch or so off that car after touring for a couple of hours. I’d say that for whatever reason, the snow just isn’t as robust as what’s been hitting Stowe and Smugg’s, so Bolton’s snowfall is in that next tier down. With that said, the 5-7” we encountered today was silky smooth and plenty of depth for appropriate terrain with the fatties. I’ve added a few shots from this afternoon below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Another 0.5" on the board at home, bringing yesterday's total to 2.0" exactly, and 4.6" since early Thursday morning. Shocker alert...it is snowing lightly again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 From what it looked like on xmas day to today and looking forward to Monday, North Conway has done a 180, I was on 6-8" of new stuff yesterday on Bear Notch road and the next few days are going to be even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 From what it looked like on xmas day to today and looking forward to Monday, North Conway has done a 180, I was on 6-8" of new stuff yesterday on Bear Notch road and the next few days are going to be even better. Nice! Yeah it's coming back. No big storms but just nickel and dime light snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Nice! Yeah it's coming back. No big storms but just nickel and dime light snowfalls. How we looking for Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 How we looking for Sunday? I like a 3-6" forecast in general...more towards the 3" side up here and 4-5" down your way. I'd put Killington/Okemo as the favored spots now with the right mix of precip and cold air...maybe 6-7" there. This is at elevations of 1000-1500ft and higher...below 1,000ft could be more marginal depending on how warm temps get tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I like a 3-6" forecast in general...more towards the 3" side up here and 4-5" down your way. I'd put Killington/Okemo as the favored spots now with the right mix of precip and cold air...maybe 6-7" there. This is at elevations of 1000-1500ft and higher...below 1,000ft could be more marginal depending on how warm temps get tomorrow. Thanks. I may be dating myself, but I was hoping you would say "looking good Louis, feeling good billy ray". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Event totals: 0.7” Snow/Trace L.E. I measured the snowfall from the most recent minor system in two rounds yesterday, 0.3” of snow at 12:00 P.M., and then 0.4” at 9:00 P.M. That may be it for the event, as there was nothing on the board this morning. For both rounds of snow, all I could pull out was a trace of liquid because it was so fluffy, so a trace will have to do it for this one. Based on the reports from PF and j24 in the Stowe area, it seems like valley snowfall has been a bit stronger to the north of here. Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 22.6 F Sky: Cloudy Snow at the stake: 8.5 inches As it stands right now, season snowfall is about 4” behind average for the date, although at 25.5”, this month’s snowfall is still roughly 17” from reaching an average December. This month has been gaining some ground though, as it just passed December 2011 (24.7”) to move up into the third spot from the bottom. So although snowfall has seemed a bit lean, it could certainly be worse. Snowpack is doing reasonably well at 8.5” as of this morning’s observations, with the average in my data at ~10”. Total liquid for the month is at 3.90”. For what it’s worth, even if this season has not been especially prolific so far in terms of snowfall, it’s had quite the frequency of storms. I noticed this when recently starting the second column in my signature, but the 2013-2014 season is now the fastest to reach 20 storms with accumulating snow in my records, reaching that mark on December 26th. That’s faster than the prodigious 2007-2008 (December 30th) and 2008-2009 (January 5th) seasons. Interestingly, although 2012-2013 didn’t have the same feel as those seasons, the 20 storm mark was also reached fairly quickly (January 2nd). But, the month isn’t over yet, and it looks like we could get some snowfall from this next system. The 00Z ECMWF seems to have come more in line with the GFS and NAM, at least with respect to QPF up in Northern Vermont. Also, all three models show some additional moisture coming through on the back side of the storm. Our current point forecast calls for snowfall in the 2-4” range, with a third of an inch of liquid. Unfortunately, activity in the New England sub forum thread for the storm is trickling off somewhat with the latest trends, so there’s not as much informative discussion there from the meteorologists as there was a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I forgot to add that I cored the 1.5" yesterday afternoon and came in with 0.04" liquid so just a shade under 40:1. The other 0.5" I did not do but I'd assume it was very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Saturday morning but no special weather statements, watches or warnings for us in Central NH. No one seems to be talking about it but it looks good for a quick punch for my area. Over half a foot of snow seems likely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 I have to say I am looking forward to a little melting today to try and get rid of this 2ft. plow burm that is solid ice right now. It is making it difficult to get to the entrance to my apartment. I have some of it chipped away now but it is a ton of work for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Saturday morning but no special weather statements, watches or warnings for us in Central NH. No one seems to be talking about it but it looks good for a quick punch for my area. Over half a foot of snow seems likely to me. Same here, although 6+" may be ambitious for my area with the threat of mixing I was thinking my lack of watch was due to that, but since you lack one too, who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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