NNE Winter 2013-14 Part I

[borderwx]

we're starting to shellac now, gutters are quieting down, still on and off heavy spurts of rain at 29F

 

 

46!

[NEK_VT_Upslope_Event]

Drove around Caledonia county last hour:

 

St J/Lyndonville: upper 30's

Burke MTn (1500 ft): 42

Danville (1500 ft): 40

Peacham (1500 ft): 39

 

 

Sounds like front is somewhere between Newport Center via borderwx and me (now in Burke).

[eyewall]

Freezing rain has picked up here now.

[PyroCu]

Freezing rain has picked up here now.

Agreed. Upstream radar trends looking more solid. Watertown, NY (KART) with 0.06" liquid this past hour. 

[eyewall]

Yeah the snowcover is now turning to a skating rink and the trees are starting to turn a little silver. BTV is back to a NW Wind.

[PyroCu]

Yeah the snowcover is now turning to a skating rink and the trees are starting to turn a little silver. BTV is back to a NW Wind.

That shallow but constant light north to northwest flow will keep the subfreezing air in place across the Champlain Valley. The 12Z NAM has 1.43" ZR at BTV through 1pm Sunday. This won't end well for trees and powerlines.  

[powderfreak]

Happened to be flipping through the TV and noticed the BTV NWS "Mansfield Mesonet" map on the TV.  Had to stop and figured it was local news but instead it was The Weather Channel showing a bunch of local maps produced by the BTV mets.  Pretty cool to see them analyzing the Mansfield meso-net page and the Green Mountain Temperature Profile. 

 

They were saying BTV should be near ground zero for more heavily populated areas (relatively speaking). 

[CardinalWinds]

MPV airport at 1165': 53°

My house 4 miles NNW airport at 875': 43°

 

I'm usually within 1° of the airport 99% of the time.  Biggest difference I've seen in a long long while.

[Hitman]

It's like a funeral for snow out there.

[Allenson]

Back down to 36 now after only reaching 38.  Hasn't been too much of a snow killer here...yet.

 

We've had some light rain showers but nothing too heavy just yet--only a few hundreths or so.

 

What a weird set-up.  Let's move this sucker through...

[eyewall]

353 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE ICE

STORM WARNING...UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NEW YORK...AND THE

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO EXTREME NORTHERN

VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. TOTAL ICE

ACCUMULATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING AROUND AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO 1

TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND

CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY

AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO ICE COVERED ROADS AND LOW

VISIBILITY. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES

ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT

LAWRENCE AND NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

[Nittany88]

So far, with the worst yet to come:

 

 

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
2 W CONSTABLE 0.25 344 PM 12/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...
2 NW SOUTH HAMMOND 0.88 300 PM 12/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
SOUTH COLTON 0.50 405 PM 12/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 WNW WEST FOWLER 0.50 250 PM 12/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 WNW GOUVERNEUR 0.50 1043 AM 12/21 CO-OP OBSERVER
3 WSW SOUTH COLTON 0.33 1114 AM 12/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
MASSENA 0.25 628 AM 12/21 EMERGENCY MNGR
3 SSE MORRISTOWN 0.25 1112 AM 12/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

VERMONT

...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
1 W MILTON 0.50 336 PM 12/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 NE SOUTH BURLINGTO 0.30 413 PM 12/21 NWS OFFICE
ESSEX CENTER 0.13 405 PM 12/21 PUBLIC

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
RICHFORD 0.33 342 PM 12/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 W NORTH FAIRFAX 0.25 1153 AM 12/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
SWANTON 0.25 318 PM 12/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
BAKERSFIELD 0.25 1203 PM 12/21 PUBLIC

[dendrite]

I think the South Hammond spotter may need more "training".

[J.Spin]

Happened to be flipping through the TV and noticed the BTV NWS "Mansfield Mesonet" map on the TV.  Had to stop and figured it was local news but instead it was The Weather Channel showing a bunch of local maps produced by the BTV mets.  Pretty cool to see them analyzing the Mansfield meso-net page and the Green Mountain Temperature Profile.

 

Thanks for the heads up PF; I might have caught it anyway since we often have it on in the background during these winter events, but I popped it on and saw it in the winter weather update.  It’s great to see the local BTV NWS resources featured nationally.

[powderfreak]

So far, with the worst yet to come:

...ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...

2 NW SOUTH HAMMOND 0.88 300 PM 12/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

 

 

 

[powderfreak]

I think the South Hammond spotter may need more "training".

 

Can you not measure ice on a flat surface?  I would've thought that looked legit.

[dendrite]

Can you not measure ice on a flat surface?  I would've thought that looked legit.

That doesn't look flat to my eyes and my guess is there's runoff onto that area (like the bike pic)

[powderfreak]

That doesn't look flat to my eyes and my guess is there's runoff onto that area (like the bike pic)

 

Ahh I guess it doesn't look flat (I just assumed it was the camera angle and its a deck or something)... the bike pic definitely was runoff and was even stated by the poster on FB.  Its still water falling from somewhere and freezing on contact and a cool pic. 

 

I guess to get rid of any doubt, measuring near a house is a bad idea, even if you know there isn't water draining off the roof, the viewer may not.

[dendrite]

Measuring ZR accretion

 

http://www.weather.gov/rnk/Measure_Icing

[powderfreak]

Measuring ZR accretion

 

http://www.weather.gov/rnk/Measure_Icing

 

So does it have to be on a tree branch?  What about a flat deck or picnic table or whatever where it only accumulates on one side of the surface?  I would go try to find anything flat like a car roof-top, etc....vs. a branch or clothesline like it states.

 

I honestly didn't know you divide in two... I thought if you have a tree branch and it has a half inch of ice on one side of it, it has a half inch of ice, not a quarter inch. 

[eyewall]

I measured 0.3" here and that is what NWS BTV reported thus far. I think you can do it by measuring the ice layer on top the of the snow.

[Nittany88]

So does it have to be on a tree branch?  What about a flat deck or picnic table or whatever where it only accumulates on one side of the surface?  I would go try to find anything flat like a car roof-top, etc....vs. a branch or clothesline like it states.

 

I honestly didn't know you divide in two... I thought if you have a tree branch and it has a half inch of ice on one side of it, it has a half inch of ice, not a quarter inch. 

That divide by 2 is just the average of the thickest and thinnest portions.

 

3. Using the ruler, measure the thickest part of the ice, from the edge of the object to the edge of the ice. Record that value on your paper.

4. Similarly, measure the thinest part of the ice, from the edge of the object to the edge of the ice. Record that value on your paper.

5. Add the two values together and then divide by two.  The resulting value is your ice accumulation.

 

 

You're fine on a branch, deck, picnic table, railing, etc. There's really no ideal way to measure ice.

[eyewall]

Well on the upside the ice on top of the snowcover may allow it to last to Christmas.

[powderfreak]

That divide by 2 is just the average of the thickest and thinnest portions.

 

 

You're fine on a branch, deck, picnic table, railing, etc. There's really no ideal way to measure ice.

 

Yeah I get that part, but I didn't know you had to average the thickest and thinnest parts.  I figured if you have a branch, and there's a half inch of ice on the top of the branch but not really any ice on the underside of the branch, I always thought that was 0.5" of ice.  Instead of averaging between the half inch on top and no ice on the bottom, which would get you 0.25" of ice. 

 

For example this picture someone posted to BTV's FB page... there's really no ice under the branches/twigs, so you would measure what's on top and divide by two to get an average of ice, as if it went all around the branch?  I would've just measured the top ice and called it whatever that value is.

 

I guess if someone reported this to BTV...would it be acceptable to just look at this horizontally and measure the ice on top of the branch, or do you have to average the thickest (say 0.5") and thinnest (0") portions?

 

 

[OceanStWx]

Yeah I get that part, but I didn't know you had to average the thickest and thinnest parts.  I figured if you have a branch, and there's a half inch of ice on the top of the branch but not really any ice on the underside of the branch, I always thought that was 0.5" of ice.  Instead of averaging between the half inch on top and no ice on the bottom, which would get you 0.25" of ice. 

 

For example this picture someone posted to BTV's FB page... there's really no ice under the branches/twigs, so you would measure what's on top and divide by two to get an average of ice, as if it went all around the branch?  I would've just measured the top ice and called it whatever that value is.

 

I guess if someone reported this to BTV...would it be acceptable to just look at this horizontally and measure the ice on top of the branch, or do you have to average the thickest (say 0.5") and thinnest (0") portions?

 

I think the basic idea is that we're looking for radial ice accretion and don't want diameter being reported.

[powderfreak]

I think the basic idea is that we're looking for radial ice accretion and don't want diameter being reported.

 

Ok cool...so basically use judgement and see how much ice accrues from whatever surface its freezing on, to the outer edge...but if its a branch, don't measure the whole thing if its got ice all the way around it.

 

Its interesting because the more I think about it, I've never really known the correct way to measure ice, but I've always sort of done it that way.  I tend to not measure ice on trees for that reason of it being difficult, but rather measure it on a flat surface where its pretty cut and dry as to how much ice there is (hey like the picnic tables at 4kft ).

[OceanStWx]

Ok cool...so basically use judgement and see how much ice accrues from whatever surface its freezing on, to the outer edge...but if its a branch, don't measure the whole thing if its got ice all the way around it.

 

Right, that will already put you well ahead of most of the public when it comes to accuracy.

[eyewall]

Even where it was salted is now frozen here. I wouldn't recommend any travel this evening in the CPV.

[powderfreak]

I'm surprised the Stowe base area station at elevation has plummeted this evening... nearly 20 degrees in 3-4 hours.  From a high of 51F and it is now 32.5F and the dew point has slipped to 31F.

 

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.70” L.E.

 

Our temperature bottomed out at 25.2 F last night, and from the 30.0 F reported with today’s 6:00 A.M. observations, the temperature gradually rose through the morning, topping out at 42.1 F according to the thermometer here.  Fortunately, that meant that the glaze we accumulated last night had a chance to melt off of all surfaces.  It was a really nice morning outside actually; there was no precipitation, it felt like spring, and the sledding was excellent.  By the afternoon however, the temperature had started falling again, and it was down to 35 F at 1:30 P.M. when I decided to head up to the mountain to make a few turns.  As I drove west down the Winooski Valley, the temperature dropped to 34 F in Bolton Flats, and finally 33 F at 340’ in Bolton, at the base of the Bolton Valley Access Road.  The temperature hung there as I drove up the access road, and then once I got above 1,000’ the temperature began to increase.  I proceeded to drive up through several very interesting bands of fog and clouds, and by the time I got up to the Bolton Valley Village at 2,100’, the temperature had risen into the low to mid 40s F.  Getting out of the car felt like stepping into the bathroom while someone is showering.  The snow on the slopes was of course nice and soft, and not surprisingly, with the temperature inversion, I’d say there’s more melting going on up there than there is down here in the valley.  When I headed back down the road a couple hours later, the temperature had dropped a couple of degrees in the Village, and I found the same 33 F at the bottom of the access road.  Things were definitely right on the border of freezing up though – when I stopped to gas up at the Bolton Store, the pavement at the gas station was in a half frozen/slushy state, and you could tell that it was on its way.  Back at the house, the temperature had dropped to 33.1 F, and it’s been slowly dropping since.  In the past hour or so, it’s dropped below freezing, and standing water is freezing up.  I decided to do a 7:00 P.M. check on the rain gauge, and it contained 0.44” of liquid from today.  The liquid in the gauge was actually just in the process of starting to freeze, and there was a skim of ice on top and around the edges.  Presumably whatever we get for precipitation this evening will be in the form of freezing rain, but at least we’re starting from clean branches and power lines.

 

Details from the 7:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Liquid: 0.44 inches

Temperature: 31.6 F

Sky: Light Freezing Rain

Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

 

The latest BTV map for projected ice shows the highest accumulations over in the Saint Lawrence Valley, while the Champlain Valley and the northern tier of Vermont are down below the one inch level.  The Champlain Valley is definitely icing up based on the pictures here and the reports I’m hearing - we were going to go to a Christmas party in Colchester this evening, but they have postponed it due to all the icing that is taking place there.  The forecast here calls for 0.2 to 0.4” of freezing rain tonight.  Whatever the case, hopefully it’s enough to bolster the snowpack without causing damage to trees or power lines.