NNE Winter 2013-14 Part I

[powderfreak]

So we shouldn't plan on going out Saturday night in btv? Jk

How's it looking for the mtn?

It's like a 30-35F rain on the mountains up here, turning warmer as you head south. I think down in town we tickle a 30-31F rainer on Sat night.

The models have a lot of QPF falling everywhere but especially central VT. If some of those 2" amounts come true, that's a lot of water and melt water coming out of the central Greens, especially where it's warmer along the warm front.

Cold and dry afterwards, so time to fire up the snow guns for resurfacing. The name of the game will be dust and run for all ski areas. This is why places get fixed equipment like tower guns...no gun moving. Just light up a bunch of trails for 12 hours, then divert the water to another handful of runs for 12 hours, etc...this is why I'm glad there are tower guns on most snowmaking runs now. There's no set-up time and downtime resulting from gun moves.

Will be interesting to say the least, but I think most people will still be pleased this week, especially if they haven't skied much in the past two weeks when it's been great haha.

[eyewall]

Light snow falling this morning at Mansfield... 24F at 3,600ft and 28F at 1,500ft.

 

I just looked over the models, especially the meso-scale models...and the Champlain Valley is in trouble.  Solid drainage flow straight down the valley.  This is a situation where its raining, yet the flags in downtown BTV are pointing due south in a northerly breeze.  I am going to try to look up the storm I'm thinking of where BTV got hammered with ice in March, but similar set up.  It was pouring and the temperature kept dropping...it got down to like 19F and rain at one point while MVL/MPV were both low 30s.

 

Yeah I guess I better prepare to abandon ship to my parent's house with their lines underground and to drip the faucets when I lose power and thus heat here.

[Hitman]

It's like a 30-35F rain on the mountains up here, turning warmer as you head south. I think down in town we tickle a 30-31F rainer on Sat night.

The models have a lot of QPF falling everywhere but especially central VT. If some of those 2" amounts come true, that's a lot of water and melt water coming out of the central Greens, especially where it's warmer along the warm front.

Cold and dry afterwards, so time to fire up the snow guns for resurfacing. The name of the game will be dust and run for all ski areas. This is why places get fixed equipment like tower guns...no gun moving. Just light up a bunch of trails for 12 hours, then divert the water to another handful of runs for 12 hours, etc...this is why I'm glad there are tower guns on most snowmaking runs now. There's no set-up time and downtime resulting from gun moves.

Will be interesting to say the least, but I think most people will still be pleased this week, especially if they haven't skied much in the past two weeks when it's been great haha.

I don't envy mtn ops this holiday. Personally, I'm going to make some turns tomorrow and then take it easy for a couple of days.

Ot- I was at a dinner last night in NYC and this lawyer was talking about how much he loved the sandwiches from the cold hollow cider mill. I haven't been there in years but would if it's half as good as he was saying.

[mreaves]

I don't envy mtn ops this holiday. Personally, I'm going to make some turns tomorrow and then take it easy for a couple of days.

Ot- I was at a dinner last night in NYC and this lawyer was talking about how much he loved the sandwiches from the cold hollow cider mill. I haven't been there in years but would if it's half as good as he was saying.

Never had a sandwich from there but their apple cider donuts are outrageously good.

[J.Spin]

Snow was just starting up this morning when I made my observations, and there was about a tenth of an inch down on the snowboard.  The temperature was right at the freezing mark, and that increased to the mid 30s F in the Champlain Valley.  Precipitation here in Burlington has been a light mixture of snow and sleet.

 

The advisories map from BTV this morning is somewhat colorful, with Winter Weather Advisories along the northern tier for 3 to 5 inches of snow and some ice, and then Winter Storm Watches in the next tier to the south which appears to be in preparation for potential ice.  There are also some Ice Storm Warnings and Flood Watches visible on the map off to the west:

 

 

From the accumulations maps, it’s clear that the northern tier is the place to be if one is looking for more notable snow accumulations – I’ve heard as much as 4-8” for up near the border, and the point forecast for Jay Peak is actually pretty close to that.  I’m not exactly sure what the mix of precipitation will be for that area heading into tomorrow, but for Vermont it sounds like one of the best spots for the most snow in the next day or so:

 

[ono]

 

 

 

Side note: does it frustrate anyone that the color scheme used in these snowfall maps is pretty difficult to read?  the 2-4" color is basically the exact same as the 4-8" blue.  Then anything that falls in the 10-24" range is basically a very similar pink.  Not a huge deal, but  what was the wisdom of this design?

[powderfreak]

Light snow and sleet at the mountain...trending towards sleet.

[NEK_VT_Upslope_Event]

I  am actually quite nervous about this upcoming storm. Seems like a worst case scenario with the holidays and then the forecasted brutal cold on Tues/Wed of next week if the power is out. Fingers crossed we dodge a bullet somehow.

[grambo]

I  am actually quite nervous about this upcoming storm. Seems like a worst case scenario with the holidays and then the forecasted brutal cold on Tues/Wed of next week if the power is out. Fingers crossed we dodge a bullet somehow.

Yea I am quite concerned as well.... up to an inch of ice here? Fook me. I'm considering telling my family to not fly & drive here today as the only thing they will come for is almost certain misery.

[powderfreak]

I don't envy mtn ops this holiday. Personally, I'm going to make some turns tomorrow and then take it easy for a couple of days.

Ot- I was at a dinner last night in NYC and this lawyer was talking about how much he loved the sandwiches from the cold hollow cider mill. I haven't been there in years but would if it's half as good as he was saying.

I've never had a sandwich from there (didn't even know they made them) but may have to keep that info in the back pocket and try it out. I personally like the sandwiches across the street at that little gas station general store...great for picking up and heading to the mountain.

[adk]

Luckily I think BTV buried much of the power lines around town. Still...really happy I have my woodstove..

 

But hey, at least it will be in the single digits next week!

[eyewall]

Luckily I think BTV buried much of the power lines around town. Still...really happy I have my woodstove..

 

But hey, at least it will be in the single digits next week!

 

Winooski is above ground power primarily. I know where my parents are in Williston it is underground. Either way this couldn't be worse timing as mentioned due to the holidays.

[grambo]

Light freezing rain and snow mix in Grand Isle. 

[Allenson]

Gotta say, I'm not really sure what to expect over the next few days in this neck of the woods.  Based on my experience around here, I would guess we'll see a little icing but then rise up to 34--36 and rot away for many many hours.

 

The stationary is north of here this morning but we were a little on the cool side for south of the front at 28 early this morning.

[grambo]

Temperatures have fallen from 31 to 28 here in the last hour. Light freezing rain still.

 

 

EDIT:

 

I had just been reporting the temperatures as posted on weather.com for my location, but remembered that I have a two independent digital thermometers located on the detached garage. They both read 25.2 degrees. 

[powderfreak]

Winooski is above ground power primarily. I know where my parents are in Williston it is underground. Either way this couldn't be worse timing as mentioned due to the holidays.

I think you guys in BTV area are fine. The one icing event I went through there (3/4") we lost power but it was back on in like 6 hours. BTV and Winnoski and areas have a dense enough population that they will get stuff up and running as quick as possible. That area would be the first to get power back in the state of VT haha. It's not like rural areas miles from a main road with like 4 houses on the street where the electric companies get to last.

[eyewall]

Dropped from 33 to 28 within the last hour and now freezing drizzle. Wind has gone NW.

[powderfreak]

We are seeing steady mixed precip now...coating of snow and sleet this morning, but now it's everything from a mangled flake to large chunks of sleet to straight rain drops (ZR). The oddest one is the aggregates of sleet...it's like rock candy falling from the sky at times.

[Nittany88]

Holy freezing rain sounding off the BTV4, 50F at 850mb, 25F at the surface at KBTV 12z Sunday:

 

[eyewall]

Unsalted sidewalks are becoming trecherous here. Be careful.

[powderfreak]

Holy freezing rain sounding off the BTV4, 50F at 850mb, 25F at the surface at KBTV 12z Sunday:

Wow. I shared that in the ice thread, too. That's insane. Much warmer east of the Greens I'm sure...going against the usual CAD climo.

[tamarack]

I think you guys in BTV area are fine. The one icing event I went through there (3/4") we lost power but it was back on in like 6 hours. BTV and Winnoski and areas have a dense enough population that they will get stuff up and running as quick as possible. That area would be the first to get power back in the state of VT haha. It's not like rural areas miles from a main road with like 4 houses on the street where the electric companies get to last.

 

You just defined my place, except there's only 3 families. 

However, if this is truly awful, all bets are off.  In 1998 Central Maine Power's main office in Augusta - one block from Western Avenue, the main entry road to the city - lost power for a day or two.

 

Edit:  No generator, but both my pickup and chainsaw gas can are full.

[eyewall]

The temp is coming down here still. Now 25 or 26 according to my car.

[Dan76]

Sandy taught me a lesson that if you have a genny you never have too much gas. Run it enough to warm the house if you have it  hard wired to the heating plant.

I would not run it 24/7 no need to. I had mine dirty wired through a non GFI outlet outside and opened only  the breakers that I needed.

 

BTW Don't forget to shut the main OFF

[eyewall]

The slide continues. Down to 23F at BTV.

[CardinalWinds]

Light snow falling this morning at Mansfield... 24F at 3,600ft and 28F at 1,500ft.

 

I just looked over the models, especially the meso-scale models...and the Champlain Valley is in trouble.  Solid drainage flow straight down the valley.  This is a situation where its raining, yet the flags in downtown BTV are pointing due south in a northerly breeze.  I am going to try to look up the storm I'm thinking of where BTV got hammered with ice in March, but similar set up.  It was pouring and the temperature kept dropping...it got down to like 19F and rain at one point while MVL/MPV were both low 30s.

 

It's been straight up rain here since precip began around 9:30 this morning at 36°.  We're down to 33° as of this post and I gotta say, it can stop dropping right there.

 

I don't have nearly the memory of most posters here regarding past events, but I remember the event shortly after I moved up here in late '97.  Maybe the next winter?  Not sure.  Anyway, I remember the icing devastation in the Champlain Valley while here it stayed mid 30's the entire time with no issues whatsoever.  Needless to say I'm hoping for the same thing again here...but with a little help this time for those west of the spine.

[adk]

Unsalted sidewalks are becoming trecherous here. Be careful.

 

Down goes Frazier...twice actually. 

I walked two blocks. 

 

And I'm done. 

[PyroCu]

SREF and NCEP/WPC freezing rain probabilities can be found at the following URLs: 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_prob_zr_precip_01__

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=icez&amt=1&day=1&ftype=probabilities

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.13” L.E.

 

It was a bit disconcerting earlier this afternoon when I was leaving UVM in Burlington – it was 26 F with a steady rain, and my car was already encased in 1/8” of ice.  The windshield had a thick enough coating that it initially just laughed at my ice scraper, so I had to let the defrosters do their thing for several minutes before the glaze was finally weakened enough to be peeled away.  I really didn’t know that the icing was going to start so soon, but at 26 F it was roughly 10 degrees colder than when I’d arrived this morning.  However, at that point it seemed like those strong ice-inducing conditions were just in the heart of the Champlain Valley.  As I headed east on I-89, the temperature began to rise at a steady pace – it was 29 F in Williston, 30 F in Richmond, 31 F in Jonesville, 32 F in Bolton, and around 34.7 F when I finally got to the house on the Waterbury/Bolton line.  The snow from this morning was slushy with the warming and some rain, but I was still able to take a core for liquid analysis and get 0.02” out of it.  The rain gauge held 0.13” of liquid, so that’s where the event stands at this point.  The cold air has definitely been moving this way though, because temperature has been dropping here; it seems that every time I look at the thermometer it’s dropped another degree.  That’s great for ensconcing the snowpack, but hopefully we don’t get too much ice.  So far the precipitation hasn’t been too heavy, but it’s definitely out there, and we’re riding the line at this latitude:

 

 

You can actually watch that pink area appear in the Champlain Valley, presumably with the influx of cold – and BTV is currently reporting a temperature of 22F!

 

Details from the 3:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0

Snow Density: 6.7% H2O

Temperature: 32.7 F

Sky: Sprinkles

Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

[borderwx]

some pretty wild variations from locale to locale.

 

we been hovering from the low of 27F before sunrise to as high as 34F, sitting at 30F now, almost  3" of new snow today mixed in with the kitchen sink, drizzle, freezing drizzle, as PF said some chunks of something.  Cleaned some stuff off around the house and it is heart attack snow now. 

 

see what she brings