NNE Winter 2013-14 Part I

[Lava Rock]

Not too often you see more snow depth along the coast than inland areas. Camden's 16" plus what they must've already had is cleary evident in the red area.

[wxjim207]

0.5" of snow last night here in Lyndonville Vermont

[Allenson]

Had a fluffy inch last night at the house.

 

Keeping a sharp eye on the icing potential.  Glad to be on vaca next week...

[bobbutts]

Freezing rain starting to show up on my P&C.  Grinch storm 2013

Looks torchey at least briefly on the American models, guess I'm hoping for that to play out.

[Digityman]

Your pack is not going anywhere........lol

 

You think it's not going anywhere because we will be getting ice?  Or do you think we will get rain/warm but not enough to melt the pack?   I'm confused apparently.

 

Huh? I think we're safe atm up here of complete meltdown. It's the lesser of two evils. Would you rather have rain and 50F and destroy the pack or frz rain and 30F with power outages.

 

You know.  That's a good question.   I have a genny and burn wood.  Ice for me won't be as bad as for others.

 

edit:  Of course I'm not advicating for a big ice storm, however I'd like to keep some snow for the holidays.

[dryslot]

You think it's not going anywhere because we will be getting ice?  Or do you think we will get rain/warm but not enough to melt the pack?   I'm confused apparently.

 

 

You know.  That's a good question.   I have a genny and burn wood.  Ice for me won't be as bad as for others.

 

edit:  Of course I'm not advicating for a big ice storm, however I'd like to keep some snow for the holidays.

 

Even if we see some rain, Mid 30's and rain will not do much, 50's and rains is a different story, I am thinking more ice right now, The warmth is very short lived, It will make this pack bullet proof

[eyewall]

We are definitely going to go bare ground in the CPV on Sunday. It is a shame to see it go just in time for Christmas. This is a grinch storm.

[Digityman]

Even if we see some rain, Mid 30's and rain will not do much, 50's and rains is a different story, I am thinking more ice right now, The warmth is very short lived, It will make this pack bullet proof

 

Thanks for the clarification.  I like your thinking.

[Hitman]

bah humbug

 

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EST THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION STILL EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A THERMAL GRADIENT SUPPORTIVE
OF A WIDE VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 300 PERCENT ABOVE
NORMAL...THUS THE REASON FOR THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CREATE A FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...AFTER 06Z THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN INCREASES
NORTH OF A SARANAC LAKE TO MONTPELIER LINE WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
SHIFTING NORTH BY 12Z...GENERALLY NORTH OF A SARANAC LAKE TO
BURLINGTON TO SAINT JOHNSBURY LINE. GIVEN A 6-12 HOUR DURATION OF
FREEZING RAIN...ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
REGION ARE DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY AND THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...NORTHEAST NEW YORK...AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF VERMONT.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT DECREASING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN A TREND TOWARD COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD.

[tamarack]

Some mood flakes drifting by here in AUG, thep holding in the low 20s.

 

No generator at home but plenty of wood.  Lots of 70-90' tall trees all along our dead-end road, too.  Hope our CAD is deep enough to freeze the precip on the fly rather than on the trees.  If we were to get the 1.5" ice IMBY like at our (then) Gardiner home in 1998, we'd still be in the dark on New Year's Day.

[MegaMike]

Would anyone recommend travelling on Friday? I'm planning on driving to Massachusetts at noon.

 

0.5" of snow last night here in Lyndonville Vermont

Hey, Sinko!

 

What do you think? I saw you on T.V BTW. 

[powderfreak]

Didn't get a chance to measure earlier, but looks like 1.4" of new snow last night. Had 2-3" at the mountain.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

This morning’s accumulation of snow wasn’t as insanely fluffy as last night’s stuff, but it was still up there at 40:1.  It looks like the snow this morning came from the weak surface warm front that passed through the area.

 

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0

Snow Density: 2.5% H2O

Temperature: 23.9 F

Sky: Light Snow (3-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

[powderfreak]

Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.02” L.E.

This morning’s accumulation of snow wasn’t as insanely fluffy as last night’s stuff, but it was still up there at 40:1. It looks like the snow this morning came from the weak surface warm front that passed through the area.

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0

Snow Density: 2.5% H2O

Temperature: 23.9 F

Sky: Light Snow (3-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

I'm going to do a core later as last nights snow was ridiculously dry...curious what I can get for a ratio.

We are in our nickle and dime season now (generally Dec/Jan) and we've had around like 4" in the last 48 hours, but if you weren't measuring it on a snow board you may not have even realized it, haha.

I had a half inch as of 11pm last night and then the 1.4" this morning, so 1.9" last 24 hours, but all it really does is pad the seasonal totals haha. It is nice to have that wintery feeling though and flakes in the air often.

I will say I just switched from a ground based board to an elevated one (still need to paint it white) but since I don't see much wind at all here at 750ft in the valley, the snow falls evenly, and an elevated board is so much easier to measure (good sight line level with the snow) accurately. I also have it set up now that I can easily flip the board to start fresh on the other side in those situations with rain changing to snow or anytime there's melt water on the board...just flip it over as soon as precip switches to snow and start accumulating on a dry surface to get a much more accurate measurement.

[adk]

Well Sunday looks terrible. Lots of tourists booked for next week are going to be really sad trombone when they show up to patchy bare ground and iced out everything. 

 

Oh well. 

 

Thanksgiving will be snowier than Christmas. 

[eyewall]

Well Sunday looks terrible. Lots of tourists booked for next week are going to be really sad trombone when they show up to patchy bare ground and iced out everything. 

 

Oh well. 

 

Thanksgiving will be snowier than Christmas. 

 

Yeah it is pretty horrendous.

[Hitman]

but on the bright side.....eh there is no bright side.  anyone seen any good movies?

[Ginx snewx]

Sugarloaf FTW

[Allenson]

Sugarloaf FTW

 

For sure--wedge holds on for a long time there.

[powderfreak]

Well Sunday looks terrible. Lots of tourists booked for next week are going to be really sad trombone when they show up to patchy bare ground and iced out everything. 

 

 

I'm optimistic enough that we'll retain some snow cover... we just need to glaze it up with IP/ZR, and then watch it rain in the 30s.  That huge QPF event in early December that looked like a torch actually ended up with a net gain even with 0.75" of rain.  It all depends what type of protection we can get in the first part of the system.  We'll see.

 

But this is nothing new for the Christmas ski crowd...those folks are used to it raining around this time, haha.  Last year's holiday period was the first one in 6 years I've worked there that it didn't rain either over the holidays or in the days leading up to the holidays...in fact, it dumped last year during the holiday's which was such a startling change of pace. 

[powderfreak]

I'm going to do a core later as last nights snow was ridiculously dry...curious what I can get for a ratio.

We are in our nickle and dime season now (generally Dec/Jan) and we've had around like 4" in the last 48 hours, but if you weren't measuring it on a snow board you may not have even realized it, haha.

I had a half inch as of 11pm last night and then the 1.4" this morning, so 1.9" last 24 hours, but all it really does is pad the seasonal totals haha. It is nice to have that wintery feeling though and flakes in the air often.

I will say I just switched from a ground based board to an elevated one (still need to paint it white) but since I don't see much wind at all here at 750ft in the valley, the snow falls evenly, and an elevated board is so much easier to measure (good sight line level with the snow) accurately. I also have it set up now that I can easily flip the board to start fresh on the other side in those situations with rain changing to snow or anytime there's melt water on the board...just flip it over as soon as precip switches to snow and start accumulating on a dry surface to get a much more accurate measurement.

 

Did a core and found 0.04" in the 1.4" of snow from last night... so 35:1 ratio fluff. 

[eyewall]

I'm optimistic enough that we'll retain some snow cover... we just need to glaze it up with IP/ZR, and then watch it rain in the 30s.  That huge QPF event in early December that looked like a torch actually ended up with a net gain even with 0.75" of rain.  It all depends what type of protection we can get in the first part of the system.  We'll see.

 

But this is nothing new for the Christmas ski crowd...those folks are used to it raining around this time, haha.  Last year's holiday period was the first one in 6 years I've worked there that it didn't rain either over the holidays or in the days leading up to the holidays...in fact, it dumped last year during the holiday's which was such a startling change of pace.

The mojo I brought as a visitor is gone

[Ginx snewx]

I'm optimistic enough that we'll retain some snow cover... we just need to glaze it up with IP/ZR, and then watch it rain in the 30s.  That huge QPF event in early December that looked like a torch actually ended up with a net gain even with 0.75" of rain.  It all depends what type of protection we can get in the first part of the system.  We'll see.

 

But this is nothing new for the Christmas ski crowd...those folks are used to it raining around this time, haha.  Last year's holiday period was the first one in 6 years I've worked there that it didn't rain either over the holidays or in the days leading up to the holidays...in fact, it dumped last year during the holiday's which was such a startling change of pace. 

MVL is crushed with ice on this GFS run

[eyewall]

My grid forecast has 1-2 of sleet on sat night. That could be interesting.

[powderfreak]

MVL is crushed with ice on this GFS run

 

GFS MOS looks cold... you can see by the temperatures every 3 hours that there isn't a lot of time spent above freezing, and the highest it gets is mid-30s.  Look at Saturday night (12/22 0z-12z) where temps are down in the upper 20s, yet the H85 temps at that time are well above 0C.  Notice that dew points never get above freezing either on MOS... that'll limit the melting even if temps go above freezing.  More so, I'm amazed that Saturday night the dew point is showing as low as 23F.  That's some icing signal right there, lol.  What I don't want to see as we go forward is dew points getting into the upper 30s or above, as that's when you really start losing snow.

 

 

[J.Spin]

I'm optimistic enough that we'll retain some snow cover... we just need to glaze it up with IP/ZR, and then watch it rain in the 30s.  That huge QPF event in early December that looked like a torch actually ended up with a net gain even with 0.75" of rain.  It all depends what type of protection we can get in the first part of the system.  We'll see.

 

From what I’ve seen when I was looking around today, the snowpack in the Champlain Valley isn’t all that robust, so I could see it taking a big hit if the weather is warm/rainy – that’s pretty much par for the course in the Champlain Valley though.  As for the rest of Northern Vermont, I’m assuming the loss of snowpack talk is again for dramatic effect, because I’m not sure how one can look at the forecast or read the BTV discussion and think that the snow is going to just disappear.  The bulk of the precipitation in the forecast is frozen, so unless the forecast changes, it’s likely to work out similarly to the storm PF mentioned above (I think that one was actually at the end of November - we picked up 1.62” of liquid equivalent in that one).  I just cored the snowpack here at the house (1.36” of liquid) because I was interested in comparing it to where it stands next week, so hopefully I’ll have time to fit it in among holiday stuff.

 

People seem rather down on this upcoming series of storms, but this is actually what we want – to be in the storm track and build the liquid into the snowpack.  We’re always talking about it in the off season, “put us in the storm track and we’ll take our chances”, and that’s just what we’re getting.  These big synoptic storms don’t come along every day, so the chance to put 1 to 2 inches of liquid into the snowpack is huge.  Sure it would be great if it was all snow, but pure snowstorms with that much liquid come along even less frequently.  The Greens can certainly nickel and dime the snowpack to better levels, but we sometimes have to wait weeks for these bigger synoptic storms.  Especially at this stage of the season, I would definitely take the upcoming series of storms over being fringed.  Indeed the stake is around that 24” mark, but only select off piste areas are viable at this point and more liquid needs to be put into the snowpack.  I think everyone hopes we can avoid a damaging ice storm (1998 was indeed no fun) but a synoptic-sized shot of liquid equivalent would be very nice going forward.  I don’t envy folks that are locked into skiing next week though based on the current forecast.  Fortunately the Northern Greens will do their thing and put down some new snow atop the dense stuff before long.

[ono]

From what I’ve seen when I was looking around today, the snowpack in the Champlain Valley isn’t all that robust, so I could see it taking a big hit if the weather is warm/rainy – that’s pretty much par for the course in the Champlain Valley though.  As for the rest of Northern Vermont, I’m assuming the loss of snowpack talk is again for dramatic effect, because I’m not sure how one can look at the forecast or read the BTV discussion and think that the snow is going to just disappear.  The bulk of the precipitation in the forecast is frozen, so unless the forecast changes, it’s likely to work out similarly to the storm PF mentioned above (I think that one was actually at the end of November - we picked up 1.62” of liquid equivalent in that one).  I just cored the snowpack here at the house (1.36” of liquid) because I was interested in comparing it to where it stands next week, so hopefully I’ll have time to fit it in among holiday stuff.

 

People seem rather down on this upcoming series of storms, but this is actually what we want – to be in the storm track and build the liquid into the snowpack.  We’re always talking about it in the off season, “put us in the storm track and we’ll take our chances”, and that’s just what we’re getting.  These big synoptic storms don’t come along every day, so the chance to put 1 to 2 inches of liquid into the snowpack is huge.  Sure it would be great if it was all snow, but pure snowstorms with that much liquid come along even less frequently.  The Greens can certainly nickel and dime the snowpack to better levels, but we sometimes have to wait weeks for these bigger synoptic storms.  Especially at this stage of the season, I would definitely take the upcoming series of storms over being fringed.  Indeed the stake is around that 24” mark, but only select off piste areas are viable at this point and more liquid needs to be put into the snowpack.  I think everyone hopes we can avoid a damaging ice storm (1998 was indeed no fun) but a synoptic-sized shot of liquid equivalent would be very nice going forward.  I don’t envy folks that are locked into skiing next week though based on the current forecast.  Fortunately the Northern Greens will do their thing and put down some new snow atop the dense stuff before long.

 

this is the right attitude to have- and we share the view about adding some heft to the snowpack. The mountains should absorb a fair bit of water without a washout- and it's necessary this time of year to get that bulletproof base that will endure.  As long as a devastating ice storm doesn't put people in the dark/cold and trash the woods with deadfall (which would make things very sketchy for the skiing crowd), things will be ok.  I can see this as a net gain for the snowpack (at least from a durability standpoint- depths may or may not suffer- but that will likely be short lived).

 

20" of bulletproof works for me going into the new year.  It's all about mid-January through March most years, anyway.

[Hitman]

Well, I see we've made our peace with this sh#^t storm. When you get lemons, you gotta make lemonade. Good time to take care of some other stuff and catch a movie. Save it up for later.

[powderfreak]

Light snow falling this morning at Mansfield... 24F at 3,600ft and 28F at 1,500ft.

 

I just looked over the models, especially the meso-scale models...and the Champlain Valley is in trouble.  Solid drainage flow straight down the valley.  This is a situation where its raining, yet the flags in downtown BTV are pointing due south in a northerly breeze.  I am going to try to look up the storm I'm thinking of where BTV got hammered with ice in March, but similar set up.  It was pouring and the temperature kept dropping...it got down to like 19F and rain at one point while MVL/MPV were both low 30s.

[Hitman]

Light snow falling this morning at Mansfield... 24F at 3,600ft and 28F at 1,500ft.

 

I just looked over the models, especially the meso-scale models...and the Champlain Valley is in trouble.  Solid drainage flow straight down the valley.  This is a situation where its raining, yet the flags in downtown BTV are pointing due south in a northerly breeze.  I am going to try to look up the storm I'm thinking of where BTV got hammered with ice in March, but similar set up.  It was pouring and the temperature kept dropping...it got down to like 19F and rain at one point while MVL/MPV were both low 30s.

So we shouldn't plan on going out Saturday night in btv? Jk

How's it looking for the mtn?