weatherMA Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's amazing how warm 20F feels this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We had 0.1" from yesterday's clipper. The snow this morning is nice to see. Yeah, it’s been snowing lightly here on the UVM campus for the past hour or so and I can see that the cars outside are coated with some white. It looks like it’s pushed into the mountains as well so there should be some dustings there as well: I’m not sure of the source of the snow, but perhaps it’s associated with this tidbit in the BTV NWS discussion: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 724 AM EST WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR/WV IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL PA/NY WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE VALLEYS AND A 30 POP FOR FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE MTNS (MAINLY MID- TO- LATE MORNING). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yeah, it’s been snowing lightly here on the UVM campus for the past hour or so and I can see that the cars outside are coated with some white. It looks like it’s pushed into the mountains as well so there should be some dustings there as well: I’m not sure of the source of the snow, but perhaps it’s associated with this tidbit in the BTV NWS discussion: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 724 AM EST WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY. A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN IR/WV IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL PA/NY WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE VALLEYS AND A 30 POP FOR FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE MTNS (MAINLY MID- TO- LATE MORNING). 0.2" so far from today's snow showers (so already better than yesterday LOL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yeah J.Spin, I'm not at the mountain today but got a few tenths of dust at home. Huge snow globe flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 its wednesday so time for me to start thinking about driving up. friday night shouldnt be horrible, although saturday morning might be better, but that would kill skiing saturday. thoughts? keeping the fingers crossed for saturday night-sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 its wednesday so time for me to start thinking about driving up. friday night shouldnt be horrible, although saturday morning might be better, but that would kill skiing saturday. thoughts? keeping the fingers crossed for saturday night-sunday. Hitman, you’re typically a Mad River Valley skier? Currently, chances for pure snow through Saturday look better and better the farther north one heads into the Northern Greens (for example the current point forecast for Jay Peak is entirely snow, and snowfall numbers go up in line with the map that PyroCu posted) but here’s the point forecast for Mount Ellen: Friday Snow likely before 11am, then snow and sleet likely between 11am and noon, then sleet likely after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday Night Sleet likely before 1am, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 25. West wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light south after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday A chance of snow before 1pm, then a chance of snow and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 33. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. I’ve got Saturday pegged as a potentially nice ski day at the moment based on the way conditions have been, and I don’t think that holiday visitors are in play yet at that point. That’s from a purely skiing perspective; I’ll have to let some of the other guys comment on the driving, which covers a much bigger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Anyone noticing the potential for Ice Storm activity this weekend across NNE??? Models currently show a nice setup! All depends on Cold Air Damming. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Anyone noticing the potential for Ice Storm activity this weekend across NNE??? Models currently show a nice setup! All depends on Cold Air Damming. Thoughts? Its being discussed over in one of the other threads and it could potentially have serious affects around here ala 1998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Its being discussed over in one of the other threads and it could potentially have serious affects around here ala 1998 I wasn't sure i didn't see it in another thread. Thanks yeah I remember 1998 well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I wasn't sure i didn't see it in another thread. Thanks yeah I remember 1998 well Its in the Decmeber pattern discussion part 2 thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Its in the Decmeber pattern discussion part 2 thread thanks coldfront! Very impressive cutoff with the snow this morning. I am not in Maine yet will be back in time for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 thanks coldfront! Very impressive cutoff with the snow this morning. I am not in Maine yet will be back in time for Friday. It was a brutal cutoff, From me to you.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Big changes in the 12Z GFS for later in the weekend. Primary is stronger and further west driving more warmth in than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I think there maybe a temp sensor issue...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I think there maybe a temp sensor issue...................... At least the dews are under 60F so its not oppressive out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 At least the dews are under 60F so its not oppressive out. But it feels like 81F....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Jut driving around, I'm amazed by how much snow is out there for this time of year. just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Big changes in the 12Z GFS for later in the weekend. Primary is stronger and further west driving more warmth in than previous runs. only seems to get worse in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Big changes in the 12Z GFS for later in the weekend. Primary is stronger and further west driving more warmth in than previous runs. Yup. Now after AUG gets its 1.5" ZR, the temp pops into the 40s - would make life a bit easier on all the lineworkers trying to restore power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yup. Now after AUG gets its 1.5" ZR, the temp pops into the 40s - would make life a bit easier on all the lineworkers trying to restore power. Only briefly though until the front comes thru based off of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hitman, you’re typically a Mad River Valley skier? Currently, chances for pure snow through Saturday look better and better the farther north one heads into the Northern Greens (for example the current point forecast for Jay Peak is entirely snow, and snowfall numbers go up in line with the map that PyroCu posted) but here’s the point forecast for Mount Ellen: Friday Snow likely before 11am, then snow and sleet likely between 11am and noon, then sleet likely after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Southwest wind 7 to 14 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday Night Sleet likely before 1am, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 25. West wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light south after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Saturday A chance of snow before 1pm, then a chance of snow and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 33. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. I’ve got Saturday pegged as a potentially nice ski day at the moment based on the way conditions have been, and I don’t think that holiday visitors are in play yet at that point. That’s from a purely skiing perspective; I’ll have to let some of the other guys comment on the driving, which covers a much bigger area. Thanks, J. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Color me concerned for the weekend storm. Models tend to struggle with CAD, and if that's the case here we won't be sniffing 32 across most of the area. 12z Euro has PWM at 27 18z Sunday, with an 850 temp of +4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 CIPS Analog has the Ice Storm of 1998 as the second highest rank storm... even based on current 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 CIPS Analog has the Ice Storm of 1998 as the second highest rank storm... even based on current 12z GFS Just saw that. Add some fuel to the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Color me concerned for the weekend storm. Models tend to struggle with CAD, and if that's the case here we won't be sniffing 32 across most of the area. 12z Euro has PWM at 27 18z Sunday, with an 850 temp of +4. Big ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grambo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 How far North do you think the low level warm air makes it up the Champlain Valley? Is the ice threat as great as in the sheltered valleys east of the Green Mountain spine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Big ice I'll be playing around in the grids most of the night with some contingency forecasts. Basically try different methods of ice accretion and see what I get. Thankfully it's quiet tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'll be playing around in the grids most of the night with some contingency forecasts. Basically try different methods of ice accretion and see what I get. Thankfully it's quiet tonight. Tough situation, You want to raise public awareness of the potential but you don't want to send them into panic mode either, Bringing up anything related to 1998 would certainly raise the panic level for some, Were you around the NE for that event? Will be interesting to see what you come up with based on current data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Tough situation, You want to raise public awareness of the potential but you don't want to send them into panic mode either, Bringing up anything related to 1998 would certainly raise the panic level for some, Were you around the NE for that event? Will be interesting to see what you come up with based on current data Baking away in RI. But I studied SNE ice storm climatology for my thesis, so I'm very familiar with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Baking away in RI. But I studied SNE ice storm climatology for my thesis, so I'm very familiar with it. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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