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NNE Winter 2013-14 Part I


klw

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What a run for the coast for so early in the season. Couple great storms.

 

It has been a truly great start to the winter, Talking to a couple guys that went ice fishing today on a large body of water and there is 7" of blue ice out there, And that's pretty early for here

not sure if all of Moorhead is frozen but cams show some ice. Saw snowmobile track going across lake at bosebuck on cam

Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk

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not sure if all of Moorhead is frozen but cams show some ice. Saw snowmobile track going across lake at bosebuck on cam

Sent from my LG-E980

 

Azischios Lake, I am not surprised, Conditions are going to be mint if things pan out over the weekend and we flip back to cold with a couple more shots at some snow

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It has been a truly great start to the winter, Talking to a couple guys that went ice fishing today on a large body of water here and there is 7" of blue ice out there, And that's pretty early for here.

 

PWM pulling a -5.9 for the month so far, and a whopping -24 on the day so far today.

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It has been pretty fun so far and the snow cover still looks great where I am. It would have been better if the weekend event didn't fall short as a semi-bust in this neck of the woods, but you can't complain too much. Hopefully we will get another chance at a double digit storm this winter (only this time verifying).

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It has been pretty fun so far and the snow cover still looks great where I am. It would have been better if the weekend event didn't fall short as a semi-bust in this neck of the woods, but you can't complain too much. Hopefully we will get another chance at a double digit storm this winter (only this time verifying).

 

We should get another shot...there's usually a few solid chances of 0.5-1.0" QPF type snowstorms even in Burlington.  I mean, the place still averages 74" over the long term, but I think its like 82" recently.  It'll snow.  If you compare it to the mountains and hills of interior VT, you'll get depressed (lol) but overall its still a snowy place.  It took me a little while to realize that though... my first winter in BTV was 2003-2004.  November 2003 was practically snowless and I remember being disappointed (When I lived down near Albany, I just assumed it dumped all the time up north, haha).  But then December 2003 rolled around and we had two major snowstorms of 18"+ (I remember measuring low 20s at UVM in both of them), followed by a 10-inch wet snow bomb with thundersnow.  BTV racked up 53.6" in my first December up there, and that had me being like, "wow, so this is how it is.  I'll take a few 10-20 inch storms a month." It rained a few times that month too, it was incredibly wet, and that didn't allow the snowpack to grow way up there.  But it was like storm after storm. 

 

Hopefully we are due for something again like that.  Burlington is so awesome in big snows. 

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I just looked at the zone forecast here and this seems overly optimistic from BTV. It was funny because I was telling everyone at the mountain that the weekend looks messy and then they saw this...

 

Friday

Snow or rain likely. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

 

Friday Night and Saturday

Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the lower 30s.

 

Saturday Night

Snow likely. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent.

 

Sunday

Snow or sleet likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

 

Sunday Night

Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 15 to 20.

 

There’s still time for changes since the weekend is a few days away, but it’s kind of hard to believe the tales about green grass to the Canadian border when Mansfield has two feet of snowpack and a graphical forecast that looks like this:

 

17DEC13A.jpg

 

On that note, I just saw that the snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake actually did hit the 24” mark, and it wasn’t even from today’s snow - 24” was attained yesterday.  So December 16th is the day of reaching 24” at the stake for the 2013-2014 season.  We’re just a few days past average, and well ahead of the previous two seasons.  I’ll put together an updated 24” plot as soon as I get a chance.  Although the depth was only 22” when I was at Stowe on Sunday, the tree skiing options were very much in line with what we’ve been talking about here – it’s still lean for most trees, but in those appropriate areas it was quite good.  I was surprised to see that the Bypass area was open, but we skied some lines in there and found plenty of snow – there weren’t really rocks to dodge, the firm base was the bigger challenge.  We also skied a number of lower mountain trees like Sunrise Glades, Birch Glades, and Lower Gulch Glades with our training instructor for the day, and they were fine.  More details are in my trip report from the day.  It should be interesting to watch how things go as we head through the weekend.

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Event totals: 1.2” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

I found a final tenth of an inch on the snowboard this morning to finish off yesterday’s event.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 7.1 F

Sky: Clear

Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

 

As PyroCu highlighted with the map above, it looks like the next opportunity for notable snow is tomorrow night into Friday based on the BTV NWS discussion:

 

…SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1" TO 4"...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE IT SHOULD STAY COULD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE TRAVEL RELATED...WITH SOME SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE FRIDAY. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATION. HIGH TEMPS VARY WIDELY FRIDAY: 27F AT KMSS...34F AT BTV...40F AT VSF ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE. POPS GENERALLY 70-100 PERCENT...HIGHEST NORTH OF FRONTAL BNDRY (FAR NRN VT AND NRN NY).

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Grand total of 0.8", so hearing of the 6-10" reports from coastal areas was surprising. 

Sunday's Grinch looks like Jan 1998 redux on 06z gfs - 1.5" qpf at temps 26-30 and h85s 0 to +4.  Hope wthe foothills will be cold enough to get mostly tree-saving IP, as happened in 1/98.

 

Yesterday's 6/-26 blew away my Dec cold records here.  Coldest Dec morn 1998-2012 was -19 on 12/21/08, and coldest daily mean -3.5 twice, that day in 2008 and last Saturday.   I'm now at -7.7 for the month and -20.4 over the past 6 days, -31 yesterday (only the 4th 30F departure in 15+ yr, all negative.)

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We should get another shot...there's usually a few solid chances of 0.5-1.0" QPF type snowstorms even in Burlington.  I mean, the place still averages 74" over the long term, but I think its like 82" recently.  It'll snow.  If you compare it to the mountains and hills of interior VT, you'll get depressed (lol) but overall its still a snowy place.  It took me a little while to realize that though... my first winter in BTV was 2003-2004.  November 2003 was practically snowless and I remember being disappointed (When I lived down near Albany, I just assumed it dumped all the time up north, haha).  But then December 2003 rolled around and we had two major snowstorms of 18"+ (I remember measuring low 20s at UVM in both of them), followed by a 10-inch wet snow bomb with thundersnow.  BTV racked up 53.6" in my first December up there, and that had me being like, "wow, so this is how it is.  I'll take a few 10-20 inch storms a month." It rained a few times that month too, it was incredibly wet, and that didn't allow the snowpack to grow way up there.  But it was like storm after storm. 

 

Hopefully we are due for something again like that.  Burlington is so awesome in big snows. 

 

Yeah and don't get me wrong I am enjoying what I see so far this year (and it is snowing lightly as I write this). That seems reasonable and I came in knowing I wouldn't see anything like you guys over there. I think I was a little spoiled on my visits too, especially the holidays last year with 14" then another 8.5" in a surprise event (resulted in 20" depths).

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