OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 If I have any shot that's how I'll need my low level CAA...straight from the NE from that anticyclonic loop. ecens look icy, but it appeared to me they trended warmer from 00Z. I have a feeling this will be a fail here, but it looks nasty up in your northern zones. There's a lot of frigid air locked up in QB so I won't give up yet. Hopefully that sfc ridge axis from the northern plains high continues to strengthen with time. The ingredients are in place. Starting to look like somewhere nearby is going to get it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 So I know a good deal about weather and the maps posted around here....but what is that showing me?Enjoy. http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/hypub-bin/trajtype.pl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 So I know a good deal about weather and the maps posted around here....but what is that showing me? It's showing you the origin of the air parcel according to the 12z GFS. It is run backwards from 18z Sunday for 96 hours to these origin locations. Basically your mid level warm nose at 2000 m is originating over the Gulf Stream by Florida, and the low level cold is originating over central Ontario and slowly bleeding east with time before it dams up against the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I just looked at the zone forecast here and this seems overly optimistic from BTV. It was funny because I was telling everyone at the mountain that the weekend looks messy and then they saw this... Friday Snow or rain likely. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Friday Night and Saturday Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows in the lower 20s. Highs in the lower 30s. Saturday Night Snow likely. Lows in the lower 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent. Sunday Snow or sleet likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Sunday Night Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 15 to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It's showing you the origin of the air parcel according to the 12z GFS. It is run backwards from 18z Sunday for 96 hours to these origin locations. Basically your mid level warm nose at 2000 m is originating over the Gulf Stream by Florida, and the low level cold is originating over central Ontario and slowly bleeding east with time before it dams up against the Apps. Thanks Ocean and Dendrite...I got it now. I was confused by the red and blue and thinking that was one parcel. Missed the 500m and 2000m over AUG in the first post, lol. Cool graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Thanks Ocean and Dendrite...I got it now. I was confused by the red and blue and thinking that was one parcel. Missed the 500m and 2000m over AUG in the first post, lol. Cool graphic. Real geeky stuff, I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Over 1" of new snow so far but looks to be tapering off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 A fluffy 1.2" this afternoon/evening. Appears to be done with just flurries falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 What a temperature gradient for the up coming weekend. I honestly would not mind a couple of warm days. Love snow and normal cold but days like today where I stay below 10F are no fun. It seems the warmth is always over rated in Central NH. Even if the upper levels warm to near record level the low level cold is so hard to dislodge here. Need an intense low to travel to our west to flood us with warm air. Stakes will be high this weekend as to where the front sets up and even though it looks we warm sector its only Tuesday and things can certainly shift a couple of hundred miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Got an inch here too. Timing sucked as it screwed up some of the roads during the evening commute in Montpelier. Streets were nasty in town and visibility was somewhat low. Once you got away from traffic lights and intersections it wasn't bad since the snow would just blow right of the road. Not looking forward to the weekend mess, hopefully we can hold on to some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Absolutely pouring snow here in Bath for the last half hour. I would love rates likes this for hours and hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Snow just about to end. Got only about 1 3/4". GFS and NAM consistantly had me in at least the .25" qpf contour. I'm sure areas just 25 miles to my south and east did much better. Probably not worth to shovel, such low water content and warmer days coming up. With the shortest days here it was interesting to see how dark it was at 3:30pm. Afternoon daylight starts increasing now even though the morning sunrise keep getting shorter till the first week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnsteader Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Snow just about to end. Got only about 1 3/4". GFS and NAM consistantly had me in at least the .25" qpf contour. I'm sure areas just 25 miles to my south and east did much better. Probably not worth to shovel, such low water content and warmer days coming up. With the shortest days here it was interesting to see how dark it was at 3:30pm. Afternoon daylight starts increasing now even though the morning sunrise keep getting shorter till the first week of January. I think Im about 25 miles to your Souutheast and we picked up 3.1 as of now, but its just about outta here. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'll be lucky to score 1". Guess I won't be getting up early to snowblow Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'll be lucky to score 1". Guess I won't be getting up early to snowblow Sent from my LG-E980 Wow, you're not all that far from me and I'm closing in on 6". Steep gradient. And radon. And lava. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Bust here as well, Gradient ftl.....2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Ok, 1.75". Might make 2. Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wow, you're not all that far from me and I'm closing in on 6". Steep gradient. And radon. And lava. I'm more surprised because we were doing nearly 2"/hr here at the office but he was just barely cracking an inch storm total then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Kind of tells the tale here who the winners and losers are........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'm more surprised because we were doing nearly 2"/hr here at the office but he was just barely cracking an inch storm total then. Yeah, I was pulling 2"/hr at like 6:00-7:30 or something. Just pouring from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 4.0" total with 0.19" liquid. Not a bad little system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.05” L.E. A bit over an inch fell here at the house today – fairly fluffy stuff at 4.5% H20. It’s definitely pretty out there with the new snow. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.1 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 22.0 Snow Density: 4.5% H2O Temperature: 10.4 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 11.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wow, you're not all that far from me and I'm closing in on 6". Steep gradient. And radon. And lava. I'm more surprised because we were doing nearly 2"/hr here at the office but he was just barely cracking an inch storm total then. WFO is in Gray right? Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 WFO is in Gray right? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 WFO is in Gray right? Yes. stupid question but is it possible to get shadowed by 800-900' hills? Just curious since we're at~ 750' but tenney hill rises to~ 850' about 1/2 mile up the hill and black cat a bit higher. We face southwest so with most winter storms coming from the northerly direction behind our house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 WFO is in Gray right? Sent from my LG-E980 Yeah, Its a place where they do snow angels in the parking lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Kind of tells the tale here who the winners and losers are........... RAD_KGYX_N0R.gif What a run for the coast for so early in the season. Couple great storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 stupid question but is it possible to get shadowed by 800-900' hills? Just curious since we're at~ 750' but tenney hill rises to~ 850' about 1/2 mile up the hill and black cat a bit higher. We face southwest so with most winter storms coming from the northerly direction behind our house No. There's no way you would be shadowed by terrain less than 300ft higher. You'd generally need a good 1000ft of difference to see any noticeable effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 stupid question but is it possible to get shadowed by 800-900' hills? Just curious since we're at~ 750' but tenney hill rises to~ 850' about 1/2 mile up the hill and black cat a bit higher. We face southwest so with most winter storms coming from the northerly direction behind our house I don't think it would impact things in any measurable way. Generally your shadowing is a result of blocked flow or large magnitudes of height change. Neither or which is really an issue in your case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 What a run for the coast for so early in the season. Couple great storms. It has been a truly great start to the winter, Talking to a couple guys that went ice fishing today on a large body of water here and there is 7" of blue ice out there, And that's pretty early for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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