powderfreak Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 6Z models backed off on the cold. 00Z euro op did too, but the ec ens held their ground with the -20s...strange. THE COMBINATION OF FORECAST WINDS/TEMPS WILL MAKE FOR WIND CHILLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE -15F TO -25F RANGE...AND THUS HAVE CONTINUED ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. ELSEWHERE CHILLS OF -5F TO -15F CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON SO THE WIND CHILL THREAT DIMINISHES BUT WE`RE IN FOR AN EXTREMELY COLD NIGHT SO IT`LL REMAIN BRUTAL OUT THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Snowing lightly Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 About -8 at present, storm total was 10.5" on a surprisingly high (considering the high ratios being discussed) 0.98" LE. However, the snow amounts were right in the forecast ranges, except for some overperforming in York Cty and Aroostook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Event totals: 10.4” Snow/0.84” L.E. Last night, 1.3” of gorgeous champagne fell here at the house to finish off the most recent storm – it was far fluffier than anything that came during the bulk of the event. If that last push of the storm was falling with blocked flow, it might have help those low snowfall areas of the west slopes to get a little more accumulation to top off the storm totals. If anything, this storm came in with a bit more liquid equivalent for our location than the forecast seemed to suggest. Even without the final addition to the storm, the snowfall was within the range that the BTV NWS had for us – I’d say it was only toward the lower end of the range because of the snow density. If snow ratios had been up toward that 20:1 area, storm snowfall would likely have been in the 15”+ range. In any event, it is the largest storm of the season to date, beating out the big November storm by a couple of inches, and it’s the first storm to reach double digits. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.3 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 43.3 Snow Density: 2.3% H2O Temperature: 9.3 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 12.5 inches I see that there’s another version of the BTV accumulations map for the storm – it looks like they might have updated it a bit since the one that PF posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Added 1.1" last night for a storm total of 8.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 With the "air fluff" last night we had an additional 0.4" or so putting the storm total at 6.6" and the season at 14.8" (Which is 1 tenth difference from the season total at the airport, so as expected the airport continues to be pretty representative of conditions here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Overnight low was -4.4F, Still -3F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Added .8 overnight to bring the storm total to 10.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Overnight low was -4.4F, Still -3F Only 13F for a low, but we had clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 With the additional inch+ of snow between the light stuff yesterday morning and the uber fluff last night, I ended up with 12". In looking at the BTV map posted by J.Spin, my location is right between the 11" and15" amounts on the border between Washington and Orange counties, so my number correlates with those pretty well. My plow guy said he measured 14". I haven't heard much about the weekend for this area but BTV's long term discussion doesn't sound like the snow will get wiped out. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...AS OF 234 AM EST MONDAY...TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL TRENDWARMER AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...WHILE TWO MIXEDPRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE...ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN FORSUNDAY. CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS IS GOOD ON THEOVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME...BUT IMPORTANT MESOSCALE DETAILSAFFECTING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY CANNOT YET BE RESOLVED.A FAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRYWEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATINGSOMEWHAT (CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS) DURING THE PERIOD AS A SFC RIDGEPUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. WSW-SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WED NIGHT AND THUBRINGS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES LIKELY MAINTAINING PERIODS OFCLOUDY SKIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO 00Z MEX-MOSGUIDANCE...MAINLY LOW-MID TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGHSIN THE UPR 20S ON THURSDAY. LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NY ANDNORTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTS IN DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONEFRIDAY...WITH 00Z GFS SHOWING A QUICK-MOVING WAVE LOW ALONG THEBNDRY AS UPR FLOW TURNS SW. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS THE BAROCLINICZONE TO OUR WEST. AS A RESULT...S-SW FLOW IN THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGSWARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH TEMPSLIKELY APPROACHING 40F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VLY. COULD SEE SOME MIXEDWINTRY PRECIPITATION WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY...AND WILL CARRY 50-60% POPS. DETAILS ON MIXED PCPN VS.PLAIN RAIN FOR FRIDAY ARE TOO EARLY TO DISCERN GIVEN NWPDIFFERENCES WITH FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS LIKEWISE TRICKY DEPENDINGON WHERE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SETS UP...BUT WILL CARRYHIGHS MID-UPR 30S AT THIS POINT FOR FRIDAY. FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SEWDSATURDAY WITH LESSER POTL FOR PRECIPITATION AS SFC HIGH PRESSUREBUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THEUPR 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARD SUNDAYWITH 00Z GFS SHOWING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWSADDITIONAL FRONTAL WAVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/WINTRY MIX. WILLCONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY ATTM WITH DAYTIME TEMPSMAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Only 13F for a low, but we had clouds And you live on an active lava floe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 With the additional inch+ of snow between the light stuff yesterday morning and the uber fluff last night, I ended up with 12". In looking at the BTV map posted by J.Spin, my location is right between the 11" and15" amounts on the border between Washington and Orange counties, so my number correlates with those pretty well. My plow guy said he measured 14". I haven't heard much about the weekend for this area but BTV's long term discussion doesn't sound like the snow will get wiped out. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 234 AM EST MONDAY...TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL TREND WARMER AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...WHILE TWO MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE...ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN FOR SUNDAY. CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS IS GOOD ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME...BUT IMPORTANT MESOSCALE DETAILS AFFECTING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY AND SUNDAY CAN NOT YET BE RESOLVED. A FAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING SOMEWHAT (CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS) DURING THE PERIOD AS A SFC RIDGE PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. WSW-SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WED NIGHT AND THU BRINGS MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES LIKELY MAINTAINING PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO 00Z MEX-MOS GUIDANCE...MAINLY LOW-MID TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE UPR 20S ON THURSDAY. LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTS IN DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE FRIDAY...WITH 00Z GFS SHOWING A QUICK-MOVING WAVE LOW ALONG THE BNDRY AS UPR FLOW TURNS SW. THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR WEST. AS A RESULT...S-SW FLOW IN THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY APPROACHING 40F IN THE CHAMPLAIN VLY. COULD SEE SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND WILL CARRY 50-60% POPS. DETAILS ON MIXED PCPN VS. PLAIN RAIN FOR FRIDAY ARE TOO EARLY TO DISCERN GIVEN NWP DIFFERENCES WITH FRONTAL PLACEMENT. TEMPS LIKEWISE TRICKY DEPENDING ON WHERE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SETS UP...BUT WILL CARRY HIGHS MID-UPR 30S AT THIS POINT FOR FRIDAY. FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SEWD SATURDAY WITH LESSER POTL FOR PRECIPITATION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARD SUNDAY WITH 00Z GFS SHOWING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS ADDITIONAL FRONTAL WAVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/WINTRY MIX. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY ATTM WITH DAYTIME TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 30S. Steady as she goes. Keep the faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Right around 3" of pure dust at 3000ft last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 And you live on an active lava floe Actually we live on a big chunk of granite with tons of radon below the house. Could be some lava too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Nice, J.Spin... that cam was fun to check in on every once in a while. It’s great to hear that you were able to check that out PF; I’ll probably fire it up for some of these larger storms to watch the progress on larger totals and get a storm depth when the snowfall stops (to have a sense for settling). As you can see from the pristine stack atop the large block, wind was very minimal as usual for our location. But, you may also have noticed that there were still nuances in the way the snow settled around the blocks (especially the large one) since it doesn’t take much to perturb the air flow in the area, and the size and shape of the blocks makes a difference. What I’d like to do eventually would be to use a metal pole like the one you have at your measurement site (or perhaps a dowel on a board would be even easier for me to put together) and put markings and numbers on that. I can see the advantage of a circular object (like a pole) that has no flat faces, and perhaps that’s one of the reasons that the experts have those. Regardless of which direction any wind is coming from, with a pole you’ve got an equivalently circular surface facing it for the least disruption of the air flow. I know that even those will show differences on different sides based on the pictures you’ve showed us after various storms, but it seems like the best overall approach. Also, it’s definitely a situation where thinner is better; the thinner the measurement object is, the less disruption of air flow there is. Ideally you’d want the pole to be infinitely thin, but then you can’t read it, and I need mine to be at least fat enough that I can read it from the distance of the camera. What I need is some sort of holographic projection that places a measurement scale right out there in the space visible to the camera, but since it has no physical presence, it will never disrupt the snow deposition. It would be something like that yellow line they have in football to mark first downs on TV – it never interferes with the players because it’s not actually there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 had a nice time in NNE sat nite /sunday ....12 inches at attitash. I enjoyed how the precip kept filling in/regenerating over NW coos county mid am. I am gonna try and do It again this weekend. watch out for ICE ICE baby sun nite /mon am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Today was a cold day on the hill. First chairlift day- one run and done. Decided to hike into the Notch instead. About 12-18" of fluff on top of a pretty soft base. Not bulletproof, would not be in the woods skiing- but some people were. Parking lot/chairlift observations would tell you that it would be a rough bottom half of the mountain. Definitely the younger crowd hitting the woods... The 24" threshold J. Spin speaks of works for the upper mountain (2500'+) natural snow trails and some well-maintained glades (some skied-out upper mtn. glades looked quite nice, actually) as others have said. Any sort of comfortable backcountry really requires 40" at the stake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Its really interesting to see how the NWS puts out advisory and watches/warnings by county. For instance tomorrow they have no WW advisory for Carroll county which starts just 25 miles west of the SE coast of NH. They do have an advisory for Merrimack county which goes west to about 25 miles SE of Lebanon. Just does not make sense. Are areas just SE of Lebanon going to get more snow than just WNW of the Atlantic, I think not! I have no advisory because I am in Grafton county but all the areas around me do, except to my NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 wxeyeNH, on 16 Dec 2013 - 4:29 PM, said:Its really interesting to see how the NWS puts out advisory and watches/warnings by county. For instance tomorrow they have no WW advisory for Carroll county which starts just 25 miles west of the SE coast of NH. They do have an advisory for Merrimack county which goes west to about 25 miles SE of Lebanon. Just does not make sense. Are areas just SE of Lebanon going to get more snow than just WNW of the Atlantic, I think not! I have no advisory because I am in Grafton county but all the areas around me do, except to my NW. My guess is that they're seeing advisory criteria being met in southern Merrimack Co (thererfore being included in the wwa). but not as far north as southern Caroll. The whole county won't see advisory criteria though. BTV actually split a few counties so address this sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Thought it was a confidence of greater than 50% of said county receiving advisory or warning level amounts to put a headline out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Today was a cold day on the hill. First chairlift day- one run and done. Decided to hike into the Notch instead. About 12-18" of fluff on top of a pretty soft base. Not bulletproof, would not be in the woods skiing- but some people were. Parking lot/chairlift observations would tell you that it would be a rough bottom half of the mountain. Definitely the younger crowd hitting the woods... The 24" threshold J. Spin speaks of works for the upper mountain (2500'+) natural snow trails and some well-maintained glades (some skied-out upper mtn. glades looked quite nice, actually) as others have said. Any sort of comfortable backcountry really requires 40" at the stake. Yeah, 40" is the real benchmark for a reason. The woods look very shady right now...very shady. You are just asking for trouble this time of year. Plus the trails are skiing so well that there's really no reason to push it in the woods. This was Chin Clip at Stowe this morning after 1-3 more inches fell overnight (some people argued it was more, but the snowboards don't lie). This was beaten down yesterday afternoon, then mother nature hit the refresh button overnight. It was chilly out but that's the benefit of a Gondola...I just lapped that today and the turns were pretty freakin' sweet for December 16th. Not often Chin Clip skis this well so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 My guess is that they're seeing advisory criteria being met in southern Merrimack Co (thererfore being included in the wwa). but not as far north as southern Caroll. The whole county won't see advisory criteria though. BTV actually split a few counties so address this sort of thing. I was curious so I called Grey Maine. Spoke to a nice female met. She said that they can break up some counties but not others. For instance they can break up Grafton county and issue for just the northern or southern half. They can't do it for Carroll county. They know its a problem in NH. Out west the counties are more square but we have the funky shapes which lead to misleading advisories sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Just saw this in the PNS... 3 E Northfield 15.9 511 am 12/16 There is no way in hell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I took my first turns of the season today. It got quite chilly by the end with the wind, but it was great to be out there again! It was also nice as there was hardly anyone else out there on the mountain (the advantage of getting weekdays off). Anyway looking ahead it looks like this weekend's storm (Sunday) will be WAA snow followed by some rain with snow on the back end once again. The Euro is actually pretty robust on those back end amounts, but we will see (5-8" in northern VT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Its really interesting to see how the NWS puts out advisory and watches/warnings by county. For instance tomorrow they have no WW advisory for Carroll county which starts just 25 miles west of the SE coast of NH. They do have an advisory for Merrimack county which goes west to about 25 miles SE of Lebanon. Just does not make sense. Are areas just SE of Lebanon going to get more snow than just WNW of the Atlantic, I think not! I have no advisory because I am in Grafton county but all the areas around me do, except to my NW. It's not ideal, but it's all we have. You can play that game all day, add this country but then the other county sticks out, so add that county too, but then this other county looks funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Thought it was a confidence of greater than 50% of said county receiving advisory or warning level amounts to put a headline out. 50% for a watch, 80% for an advisory/warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Just saw this in the PNS... 3 E Northfield 15.9 511 am 12/16 There is no way in hell... These PNSs get so ugly. It's hard to rule out the weenie from the accurate report, especially when they diligently report at least twice over a two day storm. I had your report, this 15.9" and a 9.6" report all within a 5 mile radius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I was curious so I called Grey Maine. Spoke to a nice female met. She said that they can break up some counties but not others. For instance they can break up Grafton county and issue for just the northern or southern half. They can't do it for Carroll county. They know its a problem in NH. Out west the counties are more square but we have the funky shapes which lead to misleading advisories sometimes. Actually we can't just choose to split a county, we have to go through a process to make it official and that county is then always split. So it adds to the number of zones, which effects a number of products. So it's not something we do lightly. All of our northern counties are split (Coos, Grafton, Carroll, Oxford, Franklin, Somerset (which is split three ways actually with CAR taking the top)). Then we've also split a coastal zone from all our coastal counties (except for parts of the Midcoast). See how confusing this gets already? Ha We have issues all over the place though. The "tail" in Cumberland county that sticks into Oxford. They get conditions the rest of the county doesn't see all the time, and can be surrounded by headlines in Oxford on three sides! Merrimack is another big problem county because the NW half to third is mostly above 800 feet. Big difference from the SE part. Here is what it looks like (counties in black, zone splits in white, CWAs in red). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 lol...maybe the euro won't be far off...already down to 4.8F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 lol...maybe the euro won't be far off...already down to 4.8F -9 HIE and -12 Pittsburg. Not too far to go for -20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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