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NNE Winter 2013-14 Part I


klw

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Well, the updated advisories map from BTV is chock-a-block full of Winter Storm Warnings as we approach this event, with just a faint touch of purplish blue visible down near Utica at the edge of some Winter Weather Advisories:

 

14DEC13A.jpg

 

Also, the projected accumulations maps have taken a bump back upwards, with shading in North-Central Vermont more substantial than at any point in yesterday’s adjustments, and there’s a bit of that 14-18” shading in the central part of the state along the spine:

 

14DEC13B.jpg

 

The point forecast for accumulations in this area is back up to around where it was yesterday morning, summing to roughly the 8-14” range.

 

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We're on the high end of 0.75-1.00...the NAM gives us 1.00". I think some of the best banding will be up by MSS-Powderfreak and then as the 2ndry gets cranking E NH into ME. I'm not sure we get any prolonged "death band", but it will be a decent event. Most of the precip will fall 6-15Z so be up early.

 

It is interesting, was talking with a NWS met this morning about the banding on some of the meso-models up here in northern VT/southern QC, not ready to buy into that yet, but something like the NAM banding signature (SREFS/NMM/ARW type meso models also have it, but that's all in the same family) would certainly boost totals in the Champlain Valley/BTV area and northward, and also across the International border area.

 

-12F this morning in the fields in the valley, and -10F at the summit of the mountain.  Pretty cold.

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I like where the latest NAM and SREFS are heading...they have a deform band across NVT into Quebec, and Champlain Valley looks good too.

Wow, that deform signal has been there for days...that's awesome.

 

Looks like hi-res modeling is trending in our favor for once. Nice.

 

Final call: wide spread 6-9" with 9-12" in the mountains and east slopes.

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12z runs looks sweet. NW for sure. 

 

Euro finally joining the QPF party. 0.75"+ for many with 0.6" in the NEK even.

 

 

PS: -14F this morning. 

 

 

Yeah I have access to the Euro via Eurowx.com and most in NNE will be quite pleased with the clown map in the 10-15" range by 24 hours and still snowing.

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Considering what this was progged to be three days ago, I'm super happy.

 

Wow, that deform signal has been there for days...that's awesome.

 

Looks like hi-res modeling is trending in our favor for once. Nice.

 

Final call: wide spread 6-9" with 9-12" in the mountains and east slopes.

I am super pumped, looks like we will make out quite well tonight/tomorrow. Still hoping for the mega banding and that we perhaps get into the mid-teens. We shall see, won't be greedy and will be happy with anything above 10".

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I am super pumped, looks like we will make out quite well tonight/tomorrow. Still hoping for the mega banding and that we perhaps get into the mid-teens. We shall see, won't be greedy and will be happy with anything above 10".

 

I'm happy when the stuff that falls out of the sky is white.  It's gonna be a nice stretch looking back.

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12z runs looks sweet. NW for sure. 

 

Euro finally joining the QPF party. 0.75"+ for many with 0.6" in the NEK even.

 

 

PS: -14F this morning. 

 

Wow its that juiced up?  It almost looked like the GGEM and UKMET reduced QPF from 00z last night but that's just by trying to look at the 6-hour panels which can be deceiving. 

 

I'm still setting my expectations around 6" for this first storm of the season...will be very happy with anything over 6" at this point.

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One of the good things about it is that it doesn't impact the roads as much.  Snow blows right off without getting slushy. 

Yeah...one of the situations where an unsalted highway is better than salted.

 

 

It's 4.0/-8.5 here. Holy dry/cold. Gonna take a while to saturate.

 

Never had mod-heavy prolonged snow below 10F before. Should be fun :)

We had a weak SWFE 1/25/2011 that started off below zero, but there was only a couple inches of snow around here. 1/15/2004 was pretty cool too. Interior CNE/SNE saw below normal synoptic snow with that. BOS saw some below 0F snow the next day too.

 

I'm a weenie for any snow with temps under 10F...even if the ratios suck.

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