ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Luckily our grid extends over for a ways into VT, so I can make a forecast that the public never sees for that area. I basically have 4-6" for the Littleton area and fellow NW of the Whites downslopers. That would match up to the Barre to Marshfield area and another downslope zone from South Albany to Morgan Center, VT. I've got a shade under 7" for Lyndonville looking at my grids. Awesome, thanks much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah its an interesting forecast with the lower QPF but higher ratios... I hate banking on ratios, but if there's a time for it, this one looks pretty good. I'm setting my personal expectation around 5-6" at home, maybe 7-8" at the mountain. Less than that, probably be disappointed, more than that, happily surprised. I feel like we've been watching this for days and have beaten it into the ground, lol. I just want it to get going already... I have a feeling tomorrow afternoon and evening is going to be like watching paint dry with a good deal of virga early on. That's another issue... I wonder if we waste a little modeled QPF on surface dry air from the high to the north. Hopefully it saturates up quickly and we aren't looking at decent echos producing only 2-4sm light snow. Yeah I think we saturate by dark tomorrow...should be ripping at least for a few hours tomorrow night. Last Friday before finals and I'm stuck doing a sh*t ton of work, so for my break I drew up a map of my thinking...Stowe value is more mountain than in town btw. I'm usually conservative, but I think ratios help us. Conservative Ed drops these numbers by 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Down to 5f. Coldest night yet on radon hill Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Awesome, thanks much! I added a few points so you can read more than just the GYX CWA, but this is the map I came up with. Keep in mind the high totals you see down in the BOX area don't factor in taint from mixing or FZDZ late in the event. Seeing as that isn't my forecast area and nobody but me sees that part of the forecast I wasn't too concerned with cleaning it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Smuggs updated at 2:30 this afternoon to 4" for the 24 hour period. Not sure, but most or all of that probably fell last night. That earlier 2" vs 7" at Stowe seemed a bit anomalous- though it happens once in a while. Microclimates are pretty amazing. I feel like Smuggs/Stowe/Bolton totals often provide insight into the nature of the Storms- as each has a different dominant aspect and are all relatively close with bases and mid-mountains at similar elevations. A few to several years ago, Bolton was consistently on top (even beating out Jay)- providing a measure of the dominant pattern that year. Another note- it may be me, but It seems like sometimes Smuggs reports the base snowfall measurement early in the morning when their reporter first gets to work. The upper mountain measurement comes in later (sometimes all day?). Probably busy enjoying the mountain or with other responsibilities. In any event, let it begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I added a few points so you can read more than just the GYX CWA, but this is the map I came up with. Keep in mind the high totals you see down in the BOX area don't factor in taint from mixing or FZDZ late in the event. Seeing as that isn't my forecast area and nobody but me sees that part of the forecast I wasn't too concerned with cleaning it up. SNOWFALL.jpg Nice! That's pretty cool. What are you going for ratios across VT/NH/ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Nice! That's pretty cool. What are you going for ratios across VT/NH/ME? Between 12 and 20:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Between 12 and 20:1 Nice! In a situation like this, I know going above 20:1 isn't a good idea from a forecast bust perspective, but do you think it's realistic for at least a portion of your CWA for a portion of the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Nice! In a situation like this, I know going above 20:1 isn't a good idea from a forecast bust perspective, but do you think it's realistic for at least a portion of your CWA for a portion of the event? A portion of the area for a smaller window during the event, absolutely. Especially right as the column saturates and the real steady snow starts. The DGZ will be a couple hundred mb deep in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 20:1 is tough to sustain for heavier accumulations though. This will be a storm where 6hrly summations will possibly be a few inches higher than measuring at the end of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 20:1 is tough to sustain for heavier accumulations though. This will be a storm where 6hrly summations will possibly be a few inches higher than measuring at the end of the event. Absolutely. That's why I'm thinking higher ratio at the very onset, settling towards our regional average of 13:1 during the height of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Anyone know if there have been any record low hi's or lows this week? Can't remember the last time it's been this cold so early. Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Anyone know if there have been any record low hi's or lows this week? Can't remember the last time it's been this cold so early. Sent from my LG-E980 17 low maxes broken, 10 tied yesterday (mostly in the Midwest), 26 record lows broken, 8 tied as well (again mostly Midwest). http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/daily/mint/2013/12/12?sts[]=US#records_look_up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Anyone know if there have been any record low hi's or lows this week? Can't remember the last time it's been this cold so early. Sent from my LG-E980 17 low maxes broken, 10 tied yesterday (mostly in the Midwest), 26 record lows broken, 8 tied as well (again mostly Midwest). http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/daily/mint/2013/12/12?sts[]=US#records_look_up How about NNE? Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Smuggs updated at 2:30 this afternoon to 4" for the 24 hour period. Not sure, but most or all of that probably fell last night. That earlier 2" vs 7" at Stowe seemed a bit anomalous- though it happens once in a while. Microclimates are pretty amazing. I feel like Smuggs/Stowe/Bolton totals often provide insight into the nature of the Storms- as each has a different dominant aspect and are all relatively close with bases and mid-mountains at similar elevations. A few to several years ago, Bolton was consistently on top (even beating out Jay)- providing a measure of the dominant pattern that year. Another note- it may be me, but It seems like sometimes Smuggs reports the base snowfall measurement early in the morning when their reporter first gets to work. The upper mountain measurement comes in later (sometimes all day?). Probably busy enjoying the mountain or with other responsibilities. In any event, let it begin. Sb updated theirs to 4-4. I'm done worrying about how much snow will fall tomorrow. Now I'm worrying about winds and wind holds on Sunday. It's -8f here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 We start with a larger area of 1"/hr then narrow our focus with time. I think the potential is definitely there for bigger rates, I have a few projections from the 18z GFS that look pretty good for it. Sorry I missed your response and discussion....was out at our town's holiday party. Proudly weenie here! What a fun job you have... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Event totals: 2.4” Snow/0.07” L.E. Today’s accumulation was 0.7” after the 6:00 A.M. clearing – the flake structure must have continued in the same vein as what fell last night because it was exactly the same density. Details from the 8:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.7 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 35.0 Snow Density: 2.9% H2O Temperature: 1.8 F Sky: Clear Snow at the stake: 3.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Sb updated theirs to 4-4. I'm done worrying about how much snow will fall tomorrow. Now I'm worrying about winds and wind holds on Sunday. It's -8f here. no worries. it'll snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Sorry I missed your response and discussion....was out at our town's holiday party. Proudly weenie here! What a fun job you have... Seriously though, I've really just spent my entire night alternately fluffing up and poking holes in the forecast just to make sure our bases are covered. It's pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 How about NNE?Sent from my LG-E980 Nothing up here. It's cold for sure, but not record breaking cold. You would need single digits at Portland to do that. It was the coldest 12/12 at PWM since 1995 (though 2009 was 29 so close to yesterday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Seriously though, I've really just spent my entire night alternately fluffing up and poking holes in the forecast just to make sure our bases are covered. It's pretty awesome. Seriously though, I've really just spent my entire night alternately fluffing up and poking holes in the forecast just to make sure our bases are covered. It's pretty awesome. Reading your work now, and here is my hope. It will be interesting to see the mesoscale hourly models tomorrow night and Sunday morn. THE LIFT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE INTENSE FOR A TIME AS THE SECONDARY SFC CIRCULATION MATURES OFF CAPE COD. A LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV IN AROUND AND BELOW H5 WILL COMBINE WITH THAT LIFT TO YIELD A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR BANDED PCPN WITHIN THE LARGER SHIELD OF SNFL. AS WE NEAR THE ONSET OF SNFL AND MORE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE THIS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR. LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUN THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DRY SLOT MAY APPROACH SRN NH AND COASTAL ME. THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY END ACCUMULATING SNFL...AND BRING A CHANCE OF PL OR FZDZ TO THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES SNLF AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED ALONG THE COAST AND HEAVIEST AXIS MAY SHIFT INLAND FURTHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Reading your work now, and here is my hope. It will be interesting to see the mesoscale hourly models tomorrow night and Sunday morn. I couldn't resist adding a little something to the AFD. Turned out to be more than just a little. Ha. The 00z GFS definitely pushes that strongest lift inland. It's almost like it has two areas of lift, the coastal front and the larger frontogenesis band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Best NAM run yet. Moist all the way up to BTV Some were tossing it in the main thread, not sure if that's because it's a bad run scientifically or just because it has less snow for E MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Best NAM run yet. Moist all the way up to BTV Some were tossing it in the main thread, not sure if that's because it's a bad run scientifically or just because it has less snow for E MA I think we know that's the case. Whether it's an over-correction north is a different story, but that's generally the reason why it's being tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 How about NNE?Sent from my LG-E980 Nothing up here. It's cold for sure, but not record breaking cold. You would need single digits at Portland to do that. It was the coldest 12/12 at PWM since 1995 (though 2009 was 29 so close to yesterday). thanks Sent from my LG-E980 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 1F Overnight models came even more NW and amped. AWT with that southern stream s/w. It's on like donkey kong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 1F Overnight models came even more NW and amped. AWT with that southern stream s/w. It's on like donkey kong Good morning. Took a while for the temp to start to seriously drop last night, even under clear skies with not much wind. So how did the nw and amped affect qpf for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Good morning. Took a while for the temp to start to seriously drop last night, even under clear skies with not much wind. So how did the nw and amped affect qpf for us? We're on the high end of 0.75-1.00...the NAM gives us 1.00". I think some of the best banding will be up by MSS-Powderfreak and then as the 2ndry gets cranking E NH into ME. I'm not sure we get any prolonged "death band", but it will be a decent event. Most of the precip will fall 6-15Z so be up early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 -21F at First Ct Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 We're on the high end of 0.75-1.00...the NAM gives us 1.00". I think some of the best banding will be up by MSS-Powderfreak and then as the 2ndry gets cranking E NH into ME. I'm not sure we get any prolonged "death band", but it will be a decent event. Most of the precip will fall 6-15Z so be up early. We're on the high end of 0.75-1.00...the NAM gives us 1.00". I think some of the best banding will be up by MSS-Powderfreak and then as the 2ndry gets cranking E NH into ME. I'm not sure we get any prolonged "death band", but it will be a decent event. Most of the precip will fall 6-15Z so be up early. thanks. 8-12 is a good storm and will survive the late week torch i bet. will be up by 6 and outside. I think the upside surprise is more likely than an underperformer particulary if we get one of those good bands near the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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