NNE Winter 2013-14 Part I

[dendrite]

Euro MOS has the following QPF values (0.10" more than 0z, 0.15" more than 12z yesterday for most).

 

BTV-0.52"

MVL-0.43"

LEB-0.54"

1V4-0.35"

LEW- 0.58"

PLY- 0.49"

 

Looks like 6+ for most outside of my area per Euro.

I assume those are op grid interpolations and not MOS?

[dendrite]

Max today was 18.4F at midnight...AM min was 6.9F...afternoon high was only 16.5F. So we timed the cold fropa pretty well last night.

 

Currently 11F.

[powderfreak]

18z GFS a good hit for all on this forum, even the NEK downslope area could do ok if that's 20:1 ratios. 

 

The precipitation pattern will likely be more orographic than this, (ie NEK downslope, upslope on east side of the Greens, down again on the west slopes, up again from BTV westward to a max on the east side of the Adirondacks), but if we can pull a half inch of QPF with temps near 10F, it could be a decent little event. 

 

The guys in NH and ME get crushed.

 

[eyewall]

Well I have to say I would go with the 4-8 based on what I have seen so far for the BTV area. Powder you definitely know the terrain impacts well and with the easterly component that makes sense when looking at shadow and enhanced areas.

[dryslot]

Bottom has fallen out on temps here, Down to 3F

[ctsnowstorm628]

18z GFS a good hit for all on this forum, even the NEK downslope area could do ok if that's 20:1 ratios. 

 

The precipitation pattern will likely be more orographic than this, (ie NEK downslope, upslope on east side of the Greens, down again on the west slopes, up again from BTV westward to a max on the east side of the Adirondacks), but if we can pull a half inch of QPF with temps near 10F, it could be a decent little event. 

 

The guys in NH and ME get crushed.

 

Untitled.jpg

GFS usually over dpes shadowing anyways. Thats probably ~0.5" in the NEK even aka 8-10" lol I'd hit it.

[powderfreak]

GFS usually over dpes shadowing anyways. Thats probably ~0.5" in the NEK even aka 8-10" lol I'd hit it.

 

The 18z ensembles were quite wet... pretty much every member had us over 0.5" QPF.

 

[J.Spin]

and btw-what is the mansfield stake at???

SB reported over a foot this week.  Little more tomorrow and then saturday night and we may get to the magical 24" level.  I understand this is very light snow, but we are definitely getting close to game on for woods.

 

Magical 24" level? I usually don't touch the woods till 40"...I always thought that was the rule?

 

This week's snow was all fluff...looks like SB/MRG area got the most, but the telling fact is that MRG is saying they don't have enough snow to open this weekend even with all the fluff this week. If MRG can't even open, we are still a while from being in the woods.

 

I've seen people going into the woods but it's pretty dumb right now if you ask me. We reported 3-4" last night and the groomers thought 4-6", but we've got a good thing going with the locals and them thinking we are under-playing it (we were even called out on the latest Meathead webisode from an event last year where we officially said 12" but it was far more than that, lol)...but it's all fluffy snow that at the end of the day doesn't do much of anything to the base.

 

I'd wait until the ski areas have a good deal of natural snow terrain open, at least. If you don't have enough snow to open trails without trees, debris, deadfall, etc, probably don't have enough to do the woods where all that exists.

 

Hitman, let me clear up the 24” vs. 40” story for you – I’m sure there are others out there that will enjoy this tale as well.  As you know, the 40” rule is based on when the snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake hits 40”.  It’s a rough guide for when tree skiing in the Northern and Central Greens is ready (i.e. coverage is deep enough that much of the tree skiing around here is practical and safe).  That rule of thumb has been around for at least a couple of decades on the SkiVT-L discussion list - here’s one of the early references I could find by Wesley Wright, the founder of the SkiVT-L discussion list, in a post from Sunday, November 30^th, 1997:

 

“Woods: Hey, it's far too early for woods. Wesley's Snow Science suggests no woods before the Stake has hit 40" (now 28"). So Wesley does not recommend woods at this time. Nope, keep out. Had I gone in the woods, much like Jay, I would have had a, "that's enough for now sort of feeling."”

 

His comment is actually in response to a trip report of mine from Stowe on the previous day – I’d done some skiing in the woods on that day, since there were obviously spots that were ready.  You can see that although he’s saying that it’s early to be skiing in the woods and acknowledging the 40” rule, he’s actually doing it somewhat tongue-in-cheek, and implying that he himself had also been skiing the woods.  It’s interesting to note that the actual snow depth at the stake that day was 28”, a conspicuous number that will come up below in the next part of our story.

 

Flash forward roughly 12 years to January 2010, where a conversation is taking place on the Liftlines Skiing & Snowboard Forums at First Tracks!! Online Ski Magazine about the length of the tree skiing season in Northern Vermont.  I’d observed for years that while the 40” rule was the general rule of thumb, people (including myself and my friends) often started venturing into the trees to ski, long before the stake hit 40”.  And, I’m actually pretty conservative when it comes to early coverage in the trees, so we’re not talking bouncing around on logs and boulders here, we’re typically talking about some good tree skiing as long as you know the appropriate terrain for the snow levels.  So, I decided to look back at my archived ski trip reports, since I write something up every time I ski, and do an empirical analysis regarding the actual depth of snow present at the Mt. Mansfield Stake when people make their first cautious forays into the trees.  You can read the report of that empirical analysis at the link below from a post on the Liftlines Skiing & Snowboard Forums:

 

http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8507&p=51001p50983

 

It’s fun to check that out if you have the time, but the executive summary of that report is as follows:

 

“Based on ten seasons of my data from the past two decades, on average, tree skiing in Northern Vermont appears to begin in the first half of December (mean date = less than or equal to Dec 9th) with approximately 2 to 3 feet (mean = 28.2 inches) of snow at the stake on Mt. Mansfield.”

 

So, that gave us a rough idea of when people actually started venturing into the trees, at least those who went by what the snowpack told them, and didn’t wait for the snow depth to “officially” hit 40” at the stake.

 

Now, for the third and final part of our saga, the 24-inch rule, we move a couple of years later to December 2011, and we bring in Americanwx.com and Powderfreak.  It was December 11^th (coincidentally, right around the current date) and PF had made a comment about feeling like it was time to ski other terrain than just the usual groomers.  I responded with a post about how indeed it was time based on my empirical calculations, and then he said the following:

 

“Nice post, J.Spin... really great data about off-piste skiing. You are certainly right about the 40-inch rule... we are usually off-piste well before that at least on the upper 1,000 vertical feet of the mountain and lower angle stuff. Things like Bypass to Nosedive Glades become skiable with a roughly 24" stake depth. Again it depends on whether that is 24" of solid, dense, settled snow or 24" of upslope fluff... but the 40 inch rule to me is the time when "everything becomes game" and you can ski a bit more liberally. Before that point its pretty conservative woods skiing (i.e. no drops, keep speeds low, really pay attention for stuff under the snow)... but it’s still woods skiing. I don't even really care about how we are skiing it, I just want to be out there wandering around in the woods on skis; if I get to make some good turns that’s just a bonus.”

 

Even if he may want to take it back at this point, I think that was a well-worded, pragmatic statement about the tree skiing around here.  He did indeed couch his statement with the type of snow in that 24” depth, but I liked the fact that the 24” was a nice round number, and it was coming from someone who was intimately familiar with skiing on Mt. Mansfield.  I realized that instead of the empirical analysis I had done on ten years worth of data, I could use that 24” value with the 60+ years worth of data from the Mt. Mansfield Stake to get an even better analysis.  I ran the numbers, put the analysis together in a post here on Americanwx.com:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31316-201112-ski-season-thread/page-94#entry1553520

 

…and wouldn’t you know it, the date came out within a couple of days of what I’d found in my empirical analyses of when people started skiing around here anyway.  That was enough for me, the 24-inch rule and the famous 24” stake plot were born:

 

 

The 24” rule is really only applicable to those well-maintained, appropriate angle trees that people know well (as PF said in his original comment), and it doesn’t mean that the trees are open for business like the 40” rule does, but it seems to be a good marker for when those first forays off piste begin.

 

And wouldn’t you know it, today (Dec 12^th) is actually the mean date for attaining 24” at the stake, so the conversation is very apropos.  The snow depth at the stake is currently at 17” as of this evening’s report, but I hear there might be some snow coming in the next few days.  So if indeed the stake does reach that 24” in the next week, know that it doesn’t mean that everything off piste is fair game.  One has to use their best judgment and be safe, but I’m sure we’ll start to see people out in some of those appropriate spots (not that people aren’t already exploring options out there).

[powderfreak]

Winter Storm Watch for the whole North Country...

6z NAM really increased us up into that 0.75" QPF zone, and the 00z GFS ensembles look moist up here with all but one member showing 0.5-1.0" QPF.

[powderfreak]

And it's snowing hard out up here right now...looks like an inch down and a nice streamer moving through.

 

Should be interesting to see what Mansfield pulled out of this last night.

 

[Hitman]

Hitman, let me clear up the 24” vs. 40” story for you – I’m sure there are others out there that will enjoy this tale as well.  As you know, the 40” rule is based on when the snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake hits 40”.  It’s a rough guide for when tree skiing in the Northern and Central Greens is ready (i.e. coverage is deep enough that much of the tree skiing around here is practical and safe).  That rule of thumb has been around for at least a couple of decades on the SkiVT-L discussion list - here’s one of the early references I could find by Wesley Wright, the founder of the SkiVT-L discussion list, in a post from Sunday, November 30^th, 1997:

 

“Woods: Hey, it's far too early for woods. Wesley's Snow Science suggests no woods before the Stake has hit 40" (now 28"). So Wesley does not recommend woods at this time. Nope, keep out. Had I gone in the woods, much like Jay, I would have had a, "that's enough for now sort of feeling."”

 

His comment is actually in response to a trip report of mine from Stowe on the previous day – I’d done some skiing in the woods on that day, since there were obviously spots that were ready.  You can see that although he’s saying that it’s early to be skiing in the woods and acknowledging the 40” rule, he’s actually doing it somewhat tongue-in-cheek, and implying that he himself had also been skiing the woods.  It’s interesting to note that the actual snow depth at the stake that day was 28”, a conspicuous number that will come up below in the next part of our story.

 

Flash forward roughly 12 years to January 2010, where a conversation is taking place on the Liftlines Skiing & Snowboard Forums at First Tracks!! Online Ski Magazine about the length of the tree skiing season in Northern Vermont.  I’d observed for years that while the 40” rule was the general rule of thumb, people (including myself and my friends) often started venturing into the trees to ski, long before the stake hit 40”.  And, I’m actually pretty conservative when it comes to early coverage in the trees, so we’re not talking bouncing around on logs and boulders here, we’re typically talking about some good tree skiing as long as you know the appropriate terrain for the snow levels.  So, I decided to look back at my archived ski trip reports, since I write something up every time I ski, and do an empirical analysis regarding the actual depth of snow present at the Mt. Mansfield Stake when people make their first cautious forays into the trees.  You can read the report of that empirical analysis at the link below from a post on the Liftlines Skiing & Snowboard Forums:

 

http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8507&p=51001p50983

 

It’s fun to check that out if you have the time, but the executive summary of that report is as follows:

 

“Based on ten seasons of my data from the past two decades, on average, tree skiing in Northern Vermont appears to begin in the first half of December (mean date = less than or equal to Dec 9th) with approximately 2 to 3 feet (mean = 28.2 inches) of snow at the stake on Mt. Mansfield.”

 

So, that gave us a rough idea of when people actually started venturing into the trees, at least those who went by what the snowpack told them, and didn’t wait for the snow depth to “officially” hit 40” at the stake.

 

Now, for the third and final part of our saga, the 24-inch rule, we move a couple of years later to December 2011, and we bring in Americanwx.com and Powderfreak.  It was December 11^th (coincidentally, right around the current date) and PF had made a comment about feeling like it was time to ski other terrain than just the usual groomers.  I responded with a post about how indeed it was time based on my empirical calculations, and then he said the following:

 

“Nice post, J.Spin... really great data about off-piste skiing. You are certainly right about the 40-inch rule... we are usually off-piste well before that at least on the upper 1,000 vertical feet of the mountain and lower angle stuff. Things like Bypass to Nosedive Glades become skiable with a roughly 24" stake depth. Again it depends on whether that is 24" of solid, dense, settled snow or 24" of upslope fluff... but the 40 inch rule to me is the time when "everything becomes game" and you can ski a bit more liberally. Before that point its pretty conservative woods skiing (i.e. no drops, keep speeds low, really pay attention for stuff under the snow)... but it’s still woods skiing. I don't even really care about how we are skiing it, I just want to be out there wandering around in the woods on skis; if I get to make some good turns that’s just a bonus.”

 

Even if he may want to take it back at this point, I think that was a well-worded, pragmatic statement about the tree skiing around here.  He did indeed couch his statement with the type of snow in that 24” depth, but I liked the fact that the 24” was a nice round number, and it was coming from someone who was intimately familiar with skiing on Mt. Mansfield.  I realized that instead of the empirical analysis I had done on ten years worth of data, I could use that 24” value with the 60+ years worth of data from the Mt. Mansfield Stake to get an even better analysis.  I ran the numbers, put the analysis together in a post here on Americanwx.com:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31316-201112-ski-season-thread/page-94#entry1553520

 

…and wouldn’t you know it, the date came out within a couple of days of what I’d found in my empirical analyses of when people started skiing around here anyway.  That was enough for me, the 24-inch rule and the famous 24” stake plot were born:

 

 

The 24” rule is really only applicable to those well-maintained, appropriate angle trees that people know well (as PF said in his original comment), and it doesn’t mean that the trees are open for business like the 40” rule does, but it seems to be a good marker for when those first forays off piste begin.

 

And wouldn’t you know it, today (Dec 12^th) is actually the mean date for attaining 24” at the stake, so the conversation is very apropos.  The snow depth at the stake is currently at 17” as of this evening’s report, but I hear there might be some snow coming in the next few days.  So if indeed the stake does reach that 24” in the next week, know that it doesn’t mean that everything off piste is fair game.  One has to use their best judgment and be safe, but I’m sure we’ll start to see people out in some of those appropriate spots (not that people aren’t already exploring options out there).

Epic post. That should go into the post hall of fame. Thank you.

I recalled the prior discussion because when I was biking this summer I considered marking some trees at the 2' level, but after consideration decided to use my ski pole instead.

I am exceedingly conservative when I go in there. Mostly just poking around for the joy of being back there. I have no desire to injure myself and since I don't consider myself a great skier, I take it easy. Besides, at my age, I'm not looking to impress anyone. That being said, I expect to find some good turns out there this weekend.

Fwiw- it is supposed to get a bit chilly tonight.

[dendrite]

Winter storm watch is up.

Only down to 6F so far. 1P1 takes the golden freezer award with -5F.

[Hitman]

Winter Storm Watch for the whole North Country...

6z NAM really increased us up into that 0.75" QPF zone, and the 00z GFS ensembles look moist up here with all but one member showing 0.5-1.0" QPF.

Weekend is setup real nice.

[powderfreak]

A little over 2" of new snow so far at 1500ft but tapering to flurries. Grooming and snowmaking are adamant about the summit having picked up 5-6" last night. They were like we know you only have 2" at the bottom, but 2000ft higher there's a half a foot. Hmmmm. We'll see, but not uncommon in orographic events with dry low level air to have a steep gradient.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 1.7” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

I awoke this morning to 1.7” on the board and a steady snow falling comprised of quite the mélange of flake sizes.  I’ve got the J&E Productions Web Cam running and I can see that there’s some additional snow down as well.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 34.0

Snow Density: 2.9% H2O

Temperature: 17.4 F

Sky: Snow (1-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 4.0 inches

[MainePhotog]

From GYX. This will probably change with more model runs coming before the first flakes fly.

 

 

[J.Spin]

I see that Winter Storm Watches are up throughout the BTV NWS forecast area, in fact, the entire visible area on the BTV advisories map aside from where the lake-effect advisories are up:

 

 

They’ve also got a storm total snow forecast map up:

 

 

The general Winter Storm Watch text calls for 6-10” in Vermont and Northern New York, although along the spine we’re in the 10-14” shading and our point forecast roughly sums to 7-13”.  In any event, those analog storms of 12/16/07 and 12/21/08 that ctsnowstorm noted in his post from the other day certainly aren’t orders of magnitude different than the way the forecasts are going.

[j24vt]

1.3" as of 6am

[eyewall]

I'll take an 8 and call it a day . Just a minor dusting overnight from the snow showers with the front.

[weatherMA]

Low of 2 last night. Forecast of -8 tonight!

[klw]

We had a new inch as of 8 am.

[powderfreak]

Skiing today is good...only 3" at the base but 7" at the top last night.

The Mansfield fluff machine.

[tamarack]

Temp was near -10 at 5 AM but rose to 2F by 7 as some clouds came in.  Forecast for tonight points toward minus teens for MBY; still looking for my first Dec -20 here (it's done that 8X in March - odd) but the minimal snowpack probably doesn't allow that tonight.

 

1st GYX snow map has me in 6-8", which given the probable fluff factor would be sweepable.

[Hitman]

Skiing today is good...only 3" at the base but 7" at the top last night.

The Mansfield fluff machine.

 

oh man!  u r so blessed.  Im at the office.  i'd post pictures too but I dont want to make you jealous.

[ono]

With the cold air not appearing to be going anywhere the next 5 days are looking up. 

 

 

TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE PARENT
500/700MB CIRCULATIONS LAG BEHIND AND PASS TO OUR NORTH INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED BY THIS TIME...BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH GREATER
EMPHASIS ON THE HIGH TERRAIN AS EARLY NAM/GFS FROUDE NUMBERS SHOW
SLIGHTLY BLOCKED FLOW. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD INTO THE REGION SO ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END. MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WELL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND MID TEENS ACROSS
VERMONT.

 

 

HIGH PRESSURE IS SHORT LIVED AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK CLIPPER WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/DYNAMICS
PROVIDED TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. COULD BE LOOKING AT A LONG DURATION ON/OFF LIGHT
SNOW EVENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME MINOR IMPACTS AND
MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AGAIN FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS.

[j24vt]

Roger Hill's discussion about this weekend:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vw1EgNSLTvg

[dendrite]

Steady accumulating snow in CON right now.

[ctsnowstorm628]

0.5" overnight

Can't be upset with snowfall possibilities given 2 days ago most on here were calling this a bust.

[NEK_VT_Upslope_Event]

0.5" overnight

Can't be upset with snowfall possibilities given 2 days ago most on here were calling this a bust.

what's your latest expectation for NEK (valleys and hilltops)?

[J.Spin]

Since the cold front passage overnight dropped a decent amount of snow in some areas, I’ve added the north to south listing of available 24-hour snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for this event.  This has definitely been an event for the northern half of the state up to this point, since nothing was reported overnight in the southern half of the state.  I’m surprised to see such disparate reports at neighboring areas like Stowe/Smuggler’s Notch and Mad River Glen/Sugarbush, but perhaps that was the variable nature of the snow with the front.

 

Jay Peak: 4”

Smuggler’s Notch: 2”

Stowe: 7”

Bolton Valley: 5”

Mad River Glen: 8”

Sugarbush: 2”

Pico: 1”

Killington: 1”

Okemo: 0”

Bromley: 0”

Magic Mountain: 0”

Stratton: 0”

Mount Snow: 0”