NNE Winter 2013-14 Part I

[ctsnowstorm628]

Watch the possible banded feature way NW of the secondary...  There's a whole lotta H5 vorticity in the northern stream pouring into NNE around the time the secondary gets going, too. 

 

The GFS almost looked to have a little enhanced lift far NW, but was more N.NH and N.ME, and the GGEM had a secondary band from N.VT down through NY into PA.

 

I_nw_g1_EST_2013121112_093.png

Yeah, almost like a deform band, but dynamically it's really not.

 

I could see that happening somewhere in NNE. I honestly feel as though 3-6"+ is still possible given temps aloft and at the surface. I hate relying on ratios, but I'd rather that than this go over BOS and I get shadowed while you rack up 18"

[ctsnowstorm628]

It can be hard sometimes given the demographics on this forum, but we just are not in the same climo area as they are for significant snows.  Whats good for them is usually bad for us, and vice versa.  2010-2011 was rough watching down south clean up in Jan/Feb but we weren't left out...we just ticked away at 6-12" events while they got 2-3 foot bombs.  But then in early March we got a 20-30 incher while they got all rain and we ended the season with a ton of snow on the ground. 

 

Climo always evens out, its just hard because you can't really talk or share the same enthusiasm on here with those guys.  If you are stoked everyone down there is usually pissed, and likewise the other way around.

Yeah, being from SNE, coming up here initially was tough with respect to the forums. But yeah it all evens out...they got 1-4" yesterday and I got 1" from mountain SN-. 

 

But I mean, 2/9/13 was probably the worst it'll ever get...6" at LSC, 24" at CON. I mean, c'mon now. haha

[mreaves]

Yeah, being from SNE, coming up here initially was tough with respect to the forums. But yeah it all evens out...they got 1-4" yesterday and I got 1" from mountain SN-. 

 

But I mean, 2/9/13 was probably the worst it'll ever get...6" at LSC, 24" at CON. I mean, c'mon now. haha

It has snowed here 3 days in a row.  This is how we get our snow, many small to medium events that get punctuated by a large one from time to time. 

[weatherMA]

Yeah, being from SNE, coming up here initially was tough with respect to the forums. But yeah it all evens out...they got 1-4" yesterday and I got 1" from mountain SN-.

But I mean, 2/9/13 was probably the worst it'll ever get...6" at LSC, 24" at CON. I mean, c'mon now. haha

24" at CON...10" at Plymouth. That's worse haha

[ctsnowstorm628]

24" at CON...10" at Plymouth. That's worse haha

hahaha I remember driving up 93 because we stopped at my buddy's place in MA and there was 28" in Andover, 24" CON and even like 15-18" near Dendrite. Then get to Plymouth, boom, 10" and even north of you guys there was like 7".

 

Then near St. J there was 10" and 6" at LSC ugh lol

[powderfreak]

Yeah, being from SNE, coming up here initially was tough with respect to the forums. But yeah it all evens out...they got 1-4" yesterday and I got 1" from mountain SN-. 

 

But I mean, 2/9/13 was probably the worst it'll ever get...6" at LSC, 24" at CON. I mean, c'mon now. haha

 

We also get all the nickel and dime events that don't register down there...like if snow squalls bring 1-2/2-4" today.  That type of event would be a 10 page pinned thread.

 

2/9 wasn't that bad out this way... We ended up with 10-12" which isn't bad for a storm that jackpots SNE.

 

[eyewall]

The 12z Euro looks even worse. Maybe a 1-3 or 2-4 scenario.

[ctsnowstorm628]

The 12z Euro looks even worse. Maybe a 1-3 or 2-4 scenario.

0.21" at BTV, 0.28" at 1V4 and in the low teens. 

[dryslot]

0.21" at BTV, 0.28" at 1V4 and in the low teens. 

 

Ed, Do you get the qpf numbers for the euro ensembles?

[ctsnowstorm628]

Ed, Do you get the qpf numbers for the euro ensembles?

Not via WSI/AccuWx which are real time, but I do get them through WxBell later at 5pm. I'm asking Will in the other thread myself haha

[dryslot]

Not via WSI/AccuWx which are real time, but I do get them through WxBell later at 5pm. I'm asking Will in the other thread myself haha

lol

[weatherMA]

hahaha I remember driving up 93 because we stopped at my buddy's place in MA and there was 28" in Andover, 24" CON and even like 15-18" near Dendrite. Then get to Plymouth, boom, 10" and even north of you guys there was like 7".

 

Then near St. J there was 10" and 6" at LSC ugh lol

Yeah, thankfully I went home and got 27-28" in Shrewsbury. 

 

Anyway, modest bust on temps today. Got up to 29F when NWS forecast was 21F last I checked.

[ctsnowstorm628]

lol

If you didn't already see, 0.50" goes from Bennington to Concord to Portland. Rest of NNE is 0.25-0.50" which I'm ok with. Definitely high ratio stuff.

[eyewall]

In a more immediate scenario some squalls now pushing south (now just north of Dannemora and Plattsburgh) in NY.

[powderfreak]

In a more immediate scenario some squalls now pushing south (now just north of Dannemora and Plattsburgh) in NY.

MSS with 1.5" in 20 minutes.

... Widespread snow showers and snow squalls expected this afternoon

through early this evening...

An Arctic cold front moving southeastward through the St.

Lawrence Valley is producing snow squalls... including around

Massena at 2 PM... where 1.5 inches of snow fell in about 20

minutes. This Arctic front will continue southeastward across the

north country through the remainder of this afternoon into early

this evening. Snow squalls are expected in the Champlain Valley

region between 4 and 6 PM... and will impact the evening commute.

Snowfall accumulations will generally range from 1 to 2 inches in

the valleys... including the Champlain Valley. However... much of

this will fall in a very brief period of time. More persistent

snow shower activity across the Adirondacks and the central and

northern Green Mountains will bring 2 to 4 inches of snow by this

evening... with localized higher amounts.

Those planning to travel... especially this afternoon into early this

evening... should be prepared for rapidly changing weather

conditions including periods of very low visibility and snow

covered roadways. Allow extra time to reach your destination.

Banacos

[dryslot]

If you didn't already see, 0.50" goes from Bennington to Concord to Portland. Rest of NNE is 0.25-0.50" which I'm ok with. Definitely high ratio stuff.

 

Thanks, I scooted back into the thread and saw wills post, Very cold in the upper levels for this one

[ctsnowstorm628]

MSS with 1.5" in 20 minutes.

... Widespread snow showers and snow squalls expected this afternoon

through early this evening...

An Arctic cold front moving southeastward through the St.

Lawrence Valley is producing snow squalls... including around

Massena at 2 PM... where 1.5 inches of snow fell in about 20

minutes. This Arctic front will continue southeastward across the

north country through the remainder of this afternoon into early

this evening. Snow squalls are expected in the Champlain Valley

region between 4 and 6 PM... and will impact the evening commute.

Snowfall accumulations will generally range from 1 to 2 inches in

the valleys... including the Champlain Valley. However... much of

this will fall in a very brief period of time. More persistent

snow shower activity across the Adirondacks and the central and

northern Green Mountains will bring 2 to 4 inches of snow by this

evening... with localized higher amounts.

Those planning to travel... especially this afternoon into early this

evening... should be prepared for rapidly changing weather

conditions including periods of very low visibility and snow

covered roadways. Allow extra time to reach your destination.

Banacos

Damn...better get to campus now then.

[tamarack]

It can be hard sometimes given the demographics on this forum, but we just are not in the same climo area as they are for significant snows.  Whats good for them is usually bad for us, and vice versa.  2010-2011 was rough watching down south clean up in Jan/Feb but we weren't left out...we just ticked away at 6-12" events while they got 2-3 foot bombs.  But then in early March we got a 20-30 incher while they got all rain and we ended the season with a ton of snow on the ground. 

 

Climo always evens out, its just hard because you can't really talk or share the same enthusiasm on here with those guys.  If you are stoked everyone down there is usually pissed, and likewise the other way around.

 

2010-11 was 6-8" events IMBY, and only 2" IP/ZR and power lost from the 3/7-8 bomb.  The 15" on 4/1 was nice, though.

 

But I mean, 2/9/13 was probably the worst it'll ever get...6" at LSC, 24" at CON. I mean, c'mon now. haha

 

How about 9" in Farmington and 25" LEW, 22-26" AUG, each about 35 miles away?

 

Current runs would seem to be 3-6" for the foothills, depending on fluff factor.  All snow is good snow.

 

[wxjim207]

We are enjoying nice Lake Effect snow here in Lyndonville Vermont. Occurs in bursts thanks to the greens disturbing them. 

 

Roads are covered and untreated roads are dangerous. Already hearing of plenty of crashes via VSP and St. Jay Fire Dispatch.

 

At my house in downtown Ville: 0.7" of snow for the day.

[eyewall]

AS MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS ACRS THE NE CONUS. THIS WL PRODUCE BLW
NORMAL TEMPS WITH SEVERAL CHCS FOR LIGHT SNOW THRU THE PERIOD.
FIRST SYSTEM IMPACTS OUR CWA LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT LIKELY. MODELS CONT TO SHOW A VERY
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN WITH NO CLOSED 5H OR 7H
CIRCULATION...WHICH WL LIMIT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...LATEST ECMWF/GFS
SHOWS NO PHASING BTWN NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST IN FAST PROGRESSIVE FLW
ALOFT. FINALLY...STRONG 1038MB HIGH PRES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL
PROVIDE CWA WITH PLENTY OF COLD AND VERY DRY LLVLS...AS MOISTURE
TRIES TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY...RESULTING IN VIRGA. THESE
TRENDS HAVE RESULTED IN LESS OVERALL QPF ACRS OUR CWA...WITH
AMOUNTS RANGING BTWN 0.10 SE DOWNSLOPE/SLV REGIONS TO 0.45" IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE DACKS/GREEN MTNS. CRNT THINKING A LOW END
ADVISORY EVENT LOOKS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE DACKS/GREEN MTNS
ATTM...GIVEN CRNT TRENDS...WITH A HIGH FLUFF FACTOR...GIVEN VERY
COLD THERMAL PROFILES.

[powderfreak]

Only 0.2" on the day at home...but radar blossoming over Mansfield area now.

Looks like Addison to Washington County streamer would be producing some localized moderate to heavy snows.

[powderfreak]

MPV down to 1/4sm +SN

[eyewall]

Only 0.2" on the day at home...but radar blossoming over Mansfield area now.

Looks like Addison to Washington County streamer would be producing some localized moderate to heavy snows.

 

Waterbury got a decent shot this afternoon, and also it was clear from my area that there were some good snow showers in the vicinity of Mansfield.

[Hitman]

THE LAKE ONTARIO STREAMER...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROBABLY BRING THE HIGHEST
SNOW TOTALS TO EASTERN ADDISON COUNTY AROUND STARKSBORO AND
LINCOLN. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLD SNOWFALL TOTALS 4-6"
IN THIS REGION.

 

 

sounds good to me.

[j24vt]

0.2" from today's squalls

[borderwx]

hasn't really stopped snowing up this way, J had 3-4" overnight and she played peek a boo a couple times but for the most part has been socked in, some on/off heavy squalls, maybe a hair over an 1" for the day, down to 14F now, looking forward to the first hairball ride over sheffield heights tonight

[mreaves]

MPV down to 1/4sm +SN

Was driving through this on the way home when you posted this and can definitely vouch for it. Was expecting about the same when I got home as it was pretty heavy all the way into Barre City. Petered out pretty quickly and by the time I got home it was over and it looks like we got the shaft. Maybe an inch? Son has already messed up my measuring area so no accurate measurement.

[powderfreak]

THE LAKE ONTARIO STREAMER...FRONTAL

CONVERGENCE...AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROBABLY BRING THE HIGHEST

SNOW TOTALS TO EASTERN ADDISON COUNTY AROUND STARKSBORO AND

LINCOLN. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLD SNOWFALL TOTALS 4-6"

IN THIS REGION.

sounds good to me.

Yeah looked about right in the MRG area...maybe SB North?

[powderfreak]

Snowing pretty hard here now.

Big ol arctic front dendrites.

[powderfreak]

Man this is some fluff...almost a half inch in like 10-15 minutes but I can still see the darkness of the driveway under it, lol. It's like translucent snow haha.