NNE Winter 2013-14 Part I

[Boston Bulldog]

Central NH special this weekend! You can bet I'll be skiing Ragged on Sunday, that's for sure

[NEK_VT_Upslope_Event]

 This storm has the typical VT screw job vibe already 120 hours out. Probably 3-6" of fluff while SE of the whites gets a foot.

Debbie Downer I bet we do better than you expect.

[powderfreak]

This storm has the typical VT screw job vibe already 120 hours out. Probably 3-6" of fluff while SE of the whites gets a foot.

Well this type of pattern and that set-up isn't what brings is big snows. A track of a secondary over like the Cape (which is usually great if it's a true coastal) with a primary west doesn't do us favors because the secondary can't really get a good closed circulation going to advect moisture back into our area. What ends up happening almost every time is that precip with the secondary tracks NE up the coast, while forcing from the primary causes a secondary max near St Lawrence River Valley up through southern Quebec.

That set up and the overall pattern the last couple weeks hasn't allowed for storms to advect any decent moisture back over our area when the cold dome is in place.

[powderfreak]

Snow squall graphic for tomorrow from BTV... we'll see if we can pick up more snow in a half hour tomorrow than we did in 16 hours of light snow yesterday, lol.

 

 

 

[ctsnowstorm628]

Well this type of pattern and that set-up isn't what brings is big snows. A track of a secondary over like the Cape (which is usually great if it's a true coastal) with a primary west doesn't do us favors because the secondary can't really get a good closed circulation going to advect moisture back into our area. What ends up happening almost every time is that precip with the secondary tracks NE up the coast, while forcing from the primary causes a secondary max near St Lawrence River Valley up through southern Quebec.

That set up and the overall pattern the last couple weeks hasn't allowed for storms to advect any decent moisture back over our area when the cold dome is in place.

I'm kind of hoping the primary holds on longer so the secondary doesn't rob all the good dynamics...either that or have the secondary get going in like VA and allow the 500mb trough to sharpen enough for it to go over BOS haha

[Hitman]

4 days out and you guys are throwing in the towel? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

[ctsnowstorm628]

4 days out and you guys are throwing in the towel? Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Not throwing in any towels, just simply saying that this pattern doesn't support lots of snow in NNE...however I've come across the CIPS analogs page and the top three analogs for this event based on the upper levels of the 12z GFS at h120 (12z Sun) are: 

12/16/07

12/21/08

1/5/86

 

Wasn't here for any of those obviously (or alive in '86, lol) but they seem to be a general 12+" for NNE.

 

Take a look!

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg=

[Hitman]

Not throwing in any towels, just simply saying that this pattern doesn't support lots of snow in NNE...however I've come across the CIPS analogs page and the top three analogs for this event based on the upper levels of the 12z GFS at h120 (12z Sun) are: 

12/16/07

12/21/08

1/5/86

 

Wasn't here for any of those obviously (or alive in '86, lol) but they seem to be a general 12+" for NNE.

 

Take a look!

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg=

I'm just kidding. Alls I know is we're in the game. More than that, I can't ask. If this does go southeast, it's obviously because I was worried about '@&$utters.

But in all seriousness, didn't we do pretty well with one of these setups last season, like 12/27/12???

[eyewall]

From the Vergennes band this afternoon (and it was less robust when I got to it). Note there is a heavily obscured and much higher 3rd ridge behind the 2 you can make out in the 2nd shot.

[J.Spin]

Not throwing in any towels, just simply saying that this pattern doesn't support lots of snow in NNE...however I've come across the CIPS analogs page and the top three analogs for this event based on the upper levels of the 12z GFS at h120 (12z Sun) are: 

12/16/07

12/21/08

1/5/86

 

Wasn't here for any of those obviously (or alive in '86, lol) but they seem to be a general 12+" for NNE.

 

Take a look!

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg=

 

That’s pretty neat; we don’t seem to get much mention of analogs up here in the NNE thread, but I do have links and storm totals for those 2007 and 2008 dates at this location:

 

12/16/07-12/17/08: 16.5” 

12/21/08-12/22/08:  13.4”  Pics1 Pics2 Pics3

 

The 2007 storm link is one to the relevant storm thread on EasternUSwx.com that would probably take some tweaking to work, but I’ve got some discussion and pictures of the storm along with my ski trip reports from the 16^th, and 17^th:

 

12/16/07: Text and Images and Data

12/17/07: Text and Images

 

There are more pictures in those links, but I like the stack on the roof of the play set in this one:

 

 

 

For the second storm, I certainly liked the snowfall on 12/21/08, because I took a picture showing the accumulation on the snowboard at 4:00 P.M.:

 

 

Unfortunately, I don’t see ski all area snow totals in my weather text, but I did note that Bolton Valley reported 15” in my ski trip report from the following day, and the snow up there looked mighty fine:

 

[Hitman]

That’s pretty neat; we don’t seem to get much mention of analogs up here in the NNE thread, but I do have links and storm totals for those 2007 and 2008 dates at this location:

 

12/16/07-12/17/08: 16.5” 

12/21/08-12/22/08:  13.4”  Pics1 Pics2 Pics3

 

The 2007 storm link is one to the relevant storm thread on EasternUSwx.com that would probably take some tweaking to work, but I’ve got some discussion and pictures of the storm along with my ski trip reports from the 16^th, and 17^th:

 

12/16/07: Text and Images and Data

12/17/07: Text and Images

 

There are more pictures in those links, but I like the stack on the roof of the play set in this one:

 

 

 

For the second storm, I certainly liked the snowfall on 12/21/08, because I took a picture showing the accumulation on the snowboard at 4:00 P.M.:

 

 

Unfortunately, I don’t see ski all area snow totals in my weather text, but I did note that Bolton Valley reported 15” in my ski trip report from the following day, and the snow up there looked mighty fine:

 

I'll sign on for anything looking like those pics.

[ctsnowstorm628]

That’s pretty neat; we don’t seem to get much mention of analogs up here in the NNE thread, but I do have links and storm totals for those 2007 and 2008 dates at this location:

 

12/16/07-12/17/08: 16.5” 

12/21/08-12/22/08:  13.4”  Pics1 Pics2 Pics3

 

The 2007 storm link is one to the relevant storm thread on EasternUSwx.com that would probably take some tweaking to work, but I’ve got some discussion and pictures of the storm along with my ski trip reports from the 16^th, and 17^th:

 

12/16/07: Text and Images and Data

12/17/07: Text and Images

 

There are more pictures in those links, but I like the stack on the roof of the play set in this one:

 

 

 

For the second storm, I certainly liked the snowfall on 12/21/08, because I took a picture showing the accumulation on the snowboard at 4:00 P.M.:

 

 

Unfortunately, I don’t see ski all area snow totals in my weather text, but I did note that Bolton Valley reported 15” in my ski trip report from the following day, and the snow up there looked mighty fine:

 

Nice dude! yeah, I doubt anything like that happens, but it was interesting to see those analogs come up.

 

Personally waiting on the new Euro, but the GFS is 4-8" of fluff (qpf under 0.5") and the CMC is still a solid foot.  My guess is the Euro comes slightly NW from its 12z SNE fantasy run, but not enough to get NNE into anything too crazy.

 

Having the 12z Euro ENS NW of the OP and the 0z GFS ENS NW of the OP are red flags for something too far SE at this time. Just a hunch...

[Lava Rock]

16f. Meanwhile other local stations are in the single digits.

[dendrite]

Not much on radar but just went through some heavy snow showers between Canterbury and CON

[MainePhotog]

Two day total of 1.25" snow. 3/4" on Monday and 1/2" Tuesday. Going home from work last evening, in the area of Exit 15 on I-295, heavy snow nearing whiteout conditions caused numerous slide offs. Traffic came to a stand still. Previous to this, just a snow shower and decent road conditions. This lasted until Exit 22. It took me 30 minutes to go the 7 miles between these two exits. Got through the mess without a scrape. I would have rather watched the snow from the safety of my living room.

[Hitman]

Nice dude! yeah, I doubt anything like that happens, but it was interesting to see those analogs come up.

 

Personally waiting on the new Euro, but the GFS is 4-8" of fluff (qpf under 0.5") and the CMC is still a solid foot.  My guess is the Euro comes slightly NW from its 12z SNE fantasy run, but not enough to get NNE into anything too crazy.

 

Having the 12z Euro ENS NW of the OP and the 0z GFS ENS NW of the OP are red flags for something too far SE at this time. Just a hunch...

Btv not enthused at all. I'm not taking any baths, but as depicted, this is worst case scenario for me personally. I have to get back to ny Sunday night. Good thing it's only Wednesday. Now please excuse me while I go pray.

[dryslot]

16f. Meanwhile other local stations are in the single digits.

 

lol, I made it down to 7, We hung around with the radiators today

000ASUS41 KGYX 111005RWRGYXWEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME500 AM EST WED DEC 11 2013MEZ002-005-006-010-012-015-018-020-021-024-026-027-029-111100-MAINECITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKSPORTLAND       CLEAR     19  12  74 SW10      30.05R WCI   7SANFORD        CLEAR     10   7  85 CALM      30.04RBAR HARBOR     CLEAR     16  10  79 W3        29.99RWISCASSET      CLEAR     10   6  84 CALM      30.03RROCKLAND       CLEAR     18  12  79 W10       30.01R WCI   6FRYEBURG       CLEAR      4  -1  80 SW3       29.99RLEWISTONAUBURN CLEAR      7   3  85 CALM      29.99RAUGUSTA        CLEAR     18   6  59 W8        29.98RWATERVILLE     CLEAR     18   9  68 W10       29.94R WCI   6BANGOR         CLEAR     13   5  70 W5        29.97RGREENVILLE       N/A     13   5  70 VRB3      29.81RMILLINOCKET    CLEAR     13   3  64 CALM      29.92RHOULTON        CLEAR     10   3  73 SW8       29.86RPRESQUE ISLE   CLEAR      9   1  72 W6        29.85RFRENCHVILLE    CLEAR      4  -3  73 W8        29.78RCARIBOU        CLEAR      6   0  76 W5        29.82R

[bobbutts]

[dryslot]

weenie-slide.jpg

 

lol

[tamarack]

Not throwing in any towels, just simply saying that this pattern doesn't support lots of snow in NNE...however I've come across the CIPS analogs page and the top three analogs for this event based on the upper levels of the 12z GFS at h120 (12z Sun) are: 

12/16/07

12/21/08

1/5/86

 

Wasn't here for any of those obviously (or alive in '86, lol) but they seem to be a general 12+" for NNE.

 

Take a look!

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg=

 

Farmington coop had 9", 10.5", and 19.3", respectively, and that last was a true blizzard, with winds well into the 30s, 2"/hr snowfall, at 10F.

 

And 10F was the lowest I saw this AM, though the max-min may show me something colder when I reset this evening.  It was pretty breezy last evening, so maybe it failed to settle down as much here as for points south.

 

QPF on gfs has slumped 75% to about 1/4" since Monday, though some winters the runs seem to move NW as the storm nears. 

[J.Spin]

I just read the special weather statement from the BTV NWS; it sounds like there’s the potential for a good snow from the mountains all the way down to the valleys – and watch out for the afternoon commute…

 

...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

 

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO WILL

INTERACT WITH GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO BRING INCREASING SNOW SHOWER

ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREEN

MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL

PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM...BRINGING POSSIBLE

SNOW SQUALLS DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS

WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...INCLUDING

THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL IN A VERY

BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED

SQUALLS. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE

ADIRONDACKS AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL

BRING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER

AMOUNTS.

 

THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS

EVENING...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS

INCLUDING PERIODS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITY AND SNOW COVERED

ROADWAYS.

 

 

I also popped up our graphical point forecast, and that’s got a lot of flakes in it – I think it’s the first time this season I’ve seen it so loaded.  Even if there’s not a mega storm passing through the area, it looks like a snowy period coming up, so it will be interesting to see what accumulations are like over the next week.

 

[eyewall]

I am off today and have the video camera ready this time. I will be trying to chase some squalls if I can get to them. I would love to get one like what I saw in Winooski a couple of weeks ago.

[ctsnowstorm628]

With respect to this weekend, even with a farther SE track, we still see decent qpf (0.3-0.5") with temps in the DGZ -15C or colder warming to near -12C...thats some 20:1 stuff , folks.. 

[eyewall]

With respect to this weekend, even with a farther SE track, we still see decent qpf (0.3-0.5") with temps in the DGZ -15C or colder warming to near -12C...thats some 20:1 stuff , folks.. 

 

EDIT: Yes unfortunately the Euro is a bit farther south . That doesn't bode well, but maybe we can salvage a 3-6 event.

[ctsnowstorm628]

EDIT: Yes unfortunately the Euro is a bit farther south . That doesn't bode well, but maybe we can salvage a 3-6 event.

I know. Euro MOS data still gave many near 0.3" for a total. 3-6"  of fluff seems reasonable, haha.

[NEK_VT_Upslope_Event]

i'm really liking how this is starting to play out for our neck of the woods...a lot can go wrong within reason and we will still get a solid advisory snow with a high probability we do much better than that through all the synoptic, upslope enhancement and duration effect that is depicted on a few of the models right now.

[eyewall]

I know. Euro MOS data still gave many near 0.3" for a total. 3-6"  of fluff seems reasonable, haha.

 

Yeah hopefully. If it keeps trending away we will be looking at flurries or high cirrus.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Yeah hopefully. If it keeps trending away we will be looking at flurries or high cirrus.

You just moved here, right? I'm a senior meteorology major at LSC and it's happened at least twice each of my years here. Also, we've gotten an event SNE hasn't each year too (usually in Nov or March haha).

 

The worst was 2/9/13.  I went home and got 32" while LSC got 6" of 25:1 stuff.  

[powderfreak]

With respect to this weekend, even with a farther SE track, we still see decent qpf (0.3-0.5") with temps in the DGZ -15C or colder warming to near -12C...thats some 20:1 stuff , folks.. 

 

Watch the possible banded feature way NW of the secondary...  There's a whole lotta H5 vorticity in the northern stream pouring into NNE around the time the secondary gets going, too. 

 

The GFS almost looked to have a little enhanced lift far NW, but was more N.NH and N.ME, and the GGEM had a secondary band from N.VT down through NY into PA.

 

[powderfreak]

You just moved here, right? I'm a senior meteorology major at LSC and it's happened at least twice each of my years here. Also, we've gotten an event SNE hasn't each year too (usually in Nov or March haha).

 

The worst was 2/9/13.  I went home and got 32" while LSC got 6" of 25:1 stuff.  

 

It can be hard sometimes given the demographics on this forum, but we just are not in the same climo area as they are for significant snows.  Whats good for them is usually bad for us, and vice versa.  2010-2011 was rough watching down south clean up in Jan/Feb but we weren't left out...we just ticked away at 6-12" events while they got 2-3 foot bombs.  But then in early March we got a 20-30 incher while they got all rain and we ended the season with a ton of snow on the ground. 

 

Climo always evens out, its just hard because you can't really talk or share the same enthusiasm on here with those guys.  If you are stoked everyone down there is usually pissed, and likewise the other way around.