NNE Winter 2013-14 Part I

[powderfreak]

The pictures from Stowe looked great PF – I’m guessing a couple to a few inches over a beautifully smooth base?  That’s Mt. Mansfield doing its usual thing.  We were up at Bolton Valley today picking up our passes, and I can send along the current snowpack observations.  The snowpack is certainly down a bit from when I was last up there on Sunday.  At the Timberline Base at 1,500’, the snowpack looks like it’s a couple of inches, but it quickly ramps up as you head up to the Village at 2,100’ and it’s several inches up there.  There’s plenty of base on the upper mountain for good turns on the moderately-pitched natural snow trails with whatever comes next, but a nice synoptic storm would really get things rolling.  It’s really been a slow week for snowfall, which is evidenced by the fact that the averages have now caught up here at the house – as of tomorrow, the average snowfall for this point in the season reaches 19.0” according to my data set, which is exactly where we are at the moment.

 

On that note, it does look like there’s the potential for some snow tomorrow night, which could keep us ahead of average for a short reprieve.  The BTV NWS discussion seems consistent in suggesting a 3-5” or 1-3” sort of situation.  One change I did notice is that the mention of mixed precipitation has been removed from our forecast now.

 

Yeah it was surprisingly great skiing considering it poured on Thursday night for a while.  It was one of those things though where the rain changed to snow and came down heavy enough *prior* to temperatures really falling way below freezing and locking up the snowpack.  It was actually more like 2" of graupel and very dense snow (felt like there may have been a good shot of QPF in that 2"), and that was very supportive skiing.  You pushed hard and the snow pushed back...so you could really open it up and let 'em rip a bit.  It bonded really well with the wetter snow underneath (the benefit of not having that base layer freeze solid before it snows) so it didn't just blow away, which is what certainly can happen in the thaw-freeze-snow situation.  From a conditions standpoint, that 2" of dense graupel/snow from 1,800ft and higher (but only 1/2"-3/4" at 1,500ft) yesterday was better than even 6" of 30:1 fluff.  Not sure if that makes sense, but it was just really smooth, creamy snow that you could crush and ski aggressively, without the tentative turns you often have when fluff falls on a firm surface. 

 

As for Monday's event... I'm thinking 1-3" for most...maybe a spot 4" at the summits or something if they can pull some more QPF in the higher elevations.  Looks weak and the snow growth looks horrible.  Even 3" is probably a reach, as I could certainly see this going 1-2" and freezing drizzle. 

 

Later on this week it gets quite cold, but the flow looks westerly with the cold advecting from the Great Lakes and upper Plains region, vs. more directly out of Canada.  That flow has me intrigued, as there could be some lakes moisture entrained in the flow and the GFS and GGEM have some light bouts of measurable precip in the area.  Looks like a cold, snow shower type pattern for the mountains...though accumulations would be light unless someone gets lit up in a streamer from Lake Ontario, we may be able to nickel and dime some dusting-1" type light snows on a few days. 

[J.Spin]

Yeah it was surprisingly great skiing considering it poured on Thursday night for a while.  It was one of those things though where the rain changed to snow and came down heavy enough *prior* to temperatures really falling way below freezing and locking up the snowpack.  It was actually more like 2" of graupel and very dense snow (felt like there may have been a good shot of QPF in that 2"), and that was very supportive skiing.  You pushed hard and the snow pushed back...so you could really open it up and let 'em rip a bit.  It bonded really well with the wetter snow underneath (the benefit of not having that base layer freeze solid before it snows) so it didn't just blow away, which is what certainly can happen in the thaw-freeze-snow situation.  From a conditions standpoint, that 2" of dense graupel/snow from 1,800ft and higher (but only 1/2"-3/4" at 1,500ft) yesterday was better than even 6" of 30:1 fluff.  Not sure if that makes sense, but it was just really smooth, creamy snow that you could crush and ski aggressively, without the tentative turns you often have when fluff falls on a firm surface.

 

Yeah, those sort of conditions are great where you get that bonding so I know exactly what you’re talking about – been there many times.

 

As for Monday's event... I'm thinking 1-3" for most...maybe a spot 4" at the summits or something if they can pull some more QPF in the higher elevations.  Looks weak and the snow growth looks horrible.  Even 3" is probably a reach, as I could certainly see this going 1-2" and freezing drizzle.

 

Later on this week it gets quite cold, but the flow looks westerly with the cold advecting from the Great Lakes and upper Plains region, vs. more directly out of Canada.  That flow has me intrigued, as there could be some lakes moisture entrained in the flow and the GFS and GGEM have some light bouts of measurable precip in the area.  Looks like a cold, snow shower type pattern for the mountains...though accumulations would be light unless someone gets lit up in a streamer from Lake Ontario, we may be able to nickel and dime some dusting-1" type light snows on a few days.

 

That seems reasonable for Monday – and yeah, it will be interesting to see what comes about with that ensuing flow; you’ve been eyeing that for a while based on your recent comments.  Both the GFS and ECMWF do show impulses moving through in sort of a Wed, then Thu/Fri, then Sat set of intervals.  I think the models have been pretty good on those systems over the past several weeks, at least in a qualitative sense of knowing that they’re coming down the pipe.  The BTV NWS discussion isn’t talking about it too much at this point, but does mention what I guess are the potential Wed and Sat events:

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 318 PM EST SATURDAY...WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF ONTARIO IN THE SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SIMILAR LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON DAY 8...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT THOUGH.

 

That could certainly nickel and dime the snowfall to some accrue some reasonable accumulations, and when it’s cold like the forecast suggests it’s just going to sit there… until someone skis it of course.

[ono]

Hey J. Spin

Lots of questions- I hope you don't mind, and will oblige me. 

 

Wondering- was that the snowiest single week on record for you?  You categorized them as two separate events- one going for 3-4 days, then another where snow fell on three days.  Was it a few hours of sunlight that allowed you to make a distinction?  

 

I'm trying to remember correctly- was it one of those setups where a low parks over the Canadian maritimes and just pinwheels for a duration, or a more typicalsynotpic and/or upslope event(s)?

 

Is there a link out there for the basic archived GFS/NAM models for the period?  All I can find goes back a year or two- prior years have to be requested.  I'd like to see that week, and a few others in the model data prior to the onset of the event.

 

PF, or anyone else- if you have some memorable long-duration event (or high intensity localized uplsope event) that really piques your memory- feel free to mention.  I'm curious about these unique, localized events (aren't we all?)- it's getting me pretty pumped up for the winter! 

[J.Spin]

Hey J. Spin

Lots of questions- I hope you don't mind, and will oblige me.

 

Wondering- was that the snowiest single week on record for you?  You categorized them as two separate events- one going for 3-4 days, then another where snow fell on three days.  Was it a few hours of sunlight that allowed you to make a distinction?

 

Ooh, great question, and I certainly don’t mind – it’s fun to make use of the data that’s collected.  Here are some snowy 7-day periods that I found in my data:

 

Wed 12/17/08 – Tue 12/23/08: 33.7”

Wed 2/18/09 – Tue 2/24/09: 33.4”

Mon 2/12/07 – Sun 2/18/07: 31.7”

Fri 12/21/12 – Thu 12/27/12: 31.6”

Sat 1/8/11 – Fri 1/14/11: 30.4”

Thu 2/18/10 – Wed 2/24/10: 29.3”

Tue 2/5/08 – Mon 2/11/08: 29.2”

Mon 12/28/09 – Sun 1/3/10: 28.7”

Sun 3/6/11 – Sat 3/12/11: 28.7”

Fri 2/24/12 – Thu 3/1/12: 28.0”

Mon 12/6/10 – Sun 12/12/10: 25.6”

 

I’ve only got seven seasons of data, but it actually looks like that February 2009 period that has been mentioned is near the top of the heap.  In my period of record, it was actually beaten out just barely by one other stretch in December 2008 (in the same season no less!).  It was soundly beaten though, because that period saw 33.7” in just six days (12/17-12/22) – the 23^rd of the month didn’t even need to be included because it didn’t have any new snow.  That period in December 2008 was indeed pretty prolific in terms of snowfall if you expand it out a bit as well – with over 50" in the roughly two-week period from 12/7-12/22.  Actually, the second half of last December isn’t far behind with 47.0” in the roughly two-week period from 12/16-12/31.  Man, the holiday period last season was just day after day after day of powder.

 

Anyway, with respect to the snowy one-week periods about which you inquired, as you can see from the list, there are several other periods that are in that range of ~30”.  The list above was generated from all non-overlapping periods, but for some of those seven-day windows, you can move a day or two forward and backward and still get similar snowfall numbers, so if overlaps are included there are a lot more “seven-day periods” in the list in that range of snowfall.   I hadn’t analyzed my data in that way before, but after looking through it, I’d say it seems pretty tough to get weeks here that hit the 3-foot mark.  In looking through the data, it also appears as though you have to have at least one good 1 to 2 foot storm in there to serve as a foundation for such a week.  I would have thought we’d have some weeks where you just sort of get a few more moderate storms to come together for snowfall numbers in that range, but I guess that doesn’t happen very often.  Storms probably just don’t come through in rapid enough succession to get that done.

 

The cool news though it that it looks like we get one to two of those ~30” weeks per season, and, we’ve had at least one of those weeks for every season that I’ve been collecting data – even the poor snowfall seasons down in the 100-150” range.

 

That list above should give you some good periods to check out if you’re interested in seeing what snowy weeks are like around here.  If you go to my winter weather page:

 

http://jandeproductions.com/winter-weather/

 

…you can pick the season you want, and then go to the detailed weather and ski reports from that period for more information.  I try to collect and report the ski area snowfall numbers for all the storms as well, especially the big ones, but I haven’t always done that and miss a couple here and there.  If a period is big here (i.e. ~30” in a week or less) you know that the mountains are likely going off, with something in the range of 2X the snowfall.  Any weeks where the mountains here get 50”, 60”, or 70” inches of snow are naturally going to be pretty awesome.  I’m sure as Powderfreak looks at that list of dates above, he’ll have some stories/memories/data from those stretches of snowfall.  He may also have some other periods at the fringes of the season when only the elevations are in play – since if we don’t get any accumulating snow here at the house, I don’t document the storm in my list (although I’ll probably have some comments in my ski reports of course).

 

 

I'm trying to remember correctly- was it one of those setups where a low parks over the Canadian maritimes and just pinwheels for a duration, or a more typicalsynotpic and/or upslope event(s)?

 

I don’t seem to have it in my notes for those storms, but as I recall they were sort of synoptic storms that came through and then sat up in the Maritimes to spin out some upslope.  They must have been distinct enough storms for me to call then that way though.  Honestly, the most helpful way for me to distinguish storms for my recording is to go with the way that the BTV NWS discussion describes them – it can be hard here to know the demarcations between storms with the endless snowfall that hangs around at times (Powderfreak uses the “living in a snow globe” analogy), but those meteorologists at BTV are awesome when it comes to documenting all the different shortwaves, lake-effect events, upper level lows, etc.  So when my numbers indicate that we average close to 50 accumulating snowstorms a season down here in the valley, it’s not really that arbitrary because they’re all documented systems/events that you’ll see in the BTV NWS discussion.  To get the storm numbers we do, I don’t even split out the front and back ends, or upslope portions of those “sandwich-style” storms like our Thanksgiving one that we just had.  That was a distinct, synoptic storm, so all the different rounds of snowfall from that counted as just one event.  I do use clearing/sunny skies to mark the transitions between two events occasionally, but that’s always secondary to/in line with consultation with descriptions in the BTV NWS discussion.

 

 

Is there a link out there for the basic archived GFS/NAM models for the period?  All I can find goes back a year or two- prior years have to be requested.  I'd like to see that week, and a few others in the model data prior to the onset of the event.

 

PF, or anyone else- if you have some memorable long-duration event (or high intensity localized upslope event) that really piques your memory- feel free to mention.  I'm curious about these unique, localized events (aren't we all?)- it's getting me pretty pumped up for the winter!

 

I’ll let PF and the other guys cover any model archive stuff (I’ve never looked into that) but assembling that list of snowy periods above also got me pretty psyched for this ski season – seeing those numbers just goes to show that even in the slowest of seasons you know there are going to be periods around here that rock pretty hard with respect to snowfall.

[powderfreak]

Nice sunrise this morning.

 

[Lava Rock]

Looks like possibly 2-4" for tomorrow.

[adk]

1) I think 3-6 Monday along the spine. 

2) February 2012. Insane. 

 

 

But I don't know if it was the mother of all upslope events. 

 

I still think December 6-8 2010 was more impressive from a skiing standpoint because it was 2-3 feet of pure absolute blower. 

[OceanStWx]

Looks like possibly 2-4" for tomorrow.

 

Don't get too attached to that 4.

[powderfreak]

1) I think 3-6 Monday along the spine.

2) February 2012. Insane.

But I don't know if it was the mother of all upslope events.

I still think December 6-8 2010 was more impressive from a skiing standpoint because it was 2-3 feet of pure absolute blower.

I didn't enjoy Dec 2010 as much because there was absolutely no base under that fluff. I mean there were people shattering femurs in that one. And I still think the raw accums in 2012 were higher...plus the fact that it moved out so quickly creating bluebird skies early the next morning.

I really liked the consistency of the Feb 2012 powder...you can see it in the pictures. It's not complete air but it's just good, dry, deep pow.

[Lava Rock]

Don't get too attached to that 4.

I hear ya. Just something to whiten the ground would be nice.

[Hitman]

Video from that 2/26-27/12 event.

[powderfreak]

Video from that 2/26-27/12 event.

Nice! Sometime this winter we should all try to get together for a beer in Waterbury or something. Talk big storms and skiing or whatever. It would be a central location for those of us in Stowe, Burlington, MRV, Montpelier, etc.

[J.Spin]

I still think December 6-8 2010 was more impressive from a skiing standpoint because it was 2-3 feet of pure absolute blower.

 

Interesting, that one didn’t make the cut in that list from last night based on my Waterbury snowfall, since the largest seven-day total I could find in there was 25.6”, but I’ll add it retroactively since it was clearly a good shot for the mountains.  It was a reasonably snowy period of the season down here though thanks to that event, with 37.7” in the roughly two-week period from 12/4 – 12/18.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Just did the forecast for VTrans this morning.

 

I'm impressed with some of the Vertical velocities up here in between the parent low and developing low off the coast. Went 1-2" south of RUT/LEB with 1-3" in the CPV and 2-4" from the spine east toward the NEK.

[eyewall]

Just did the forecast for VTrans this morning.

 

I'm impressed with some of the Vertical velocities up here in between the parent low and developing low off the coast. Went 1-2" south of RUT/LEB with 1-3" in the CPV and 2-4" from the spine east toward the NEK.

 

That seems reasonable to me and I agree with 1-3" for the CPV as of now. Even the BTV graphical had around 2" in Burlington itself. We will see what kind of p-type issues we may face during the event.

[ctsnowstorm628]

That seems reasonable to me and I agree with 1-3" for the CPV as of now. Even the BTV graphical had around 2" in Burlington itself. We will see what kind of p-type issues we may face during the event.

I could see some places in the northern spine seeing 4-5", but not confident enough to put it in the forecast. I think BTV will see near 2".

[eyewall]

I could see some places in the northern spine seeing 4-5", but not confident enough to put it in the forecast. I think BTV will see near 2".

 

Yeah the best place to be today is in South Jersey. Someone is going to walk away with a foot today.

[eyewall]

Well the good news going in we verified a few degrees short of the forecast high today at around 28 with a forecast of 32.

[mreaves]

I could see some places in the northern spine seeing 4-5", but not confident enough to put it in the forecast. I think BTV will see near 2".

The NWS forecast map posted earlier shows 3.4 in for MPV.  That seems a little generous but I would be pretty happy with it.

 

OT - Anyone watching the Philly/Detroit game?  There has to be 4 or 5 inches of accumulation there and its still coming down.  This would be great weather for the Super Bowl this year.

[mreaves]

Well the good news going in we verified a few degrees short of the forecast high today at around 28 with a forecast of 32.

I don't think its gotten above 23F at my house.

[Nittany88]

The NWS forecast map posted earlier shows 3.4 in for MPV.  That seems a little generous but I would be pretty happy with it.

 

OT - Anyone watching the Philly/Detroit game?  There has to be 4 or 5 inches of accumulation there and its still coming down.  This would be great weather for the Super Bowl this year.

Epic game. I think they said 6" was on the field at one point. Had to be 2-3" per hour rates at the beginning.

[mreaves]

Epic game. I think they said 6" was on the field at one point. Had to be 2-3" per hour rates at the beginning.

Wow, Ross for the kick off return.  No PATs or FGs attempted today.  Whoops, guess I spoke too soon. Good thing Detroit played heads up there or there could have been a Leon Lett situation. Like I said, it would be awesome if we ended up with something like this for the Super Bowl.

[powderfreak]

BTV's forecast map... the advisory has 3-5" of snow/sleet, but the zone forecast for Lamoille has no mention of mixed precip at all.

 

 

Tonight: Cloudy. Snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Lows around 16. Light and variable winds... Becoming south around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Monday: Snow. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

[Hitman]

Nice! Sometime this winter we should all try to get together for a beer in Waterbury or something. Talk big storms and skiing or whatever. It would be a central location for those of us in Stowe, Burlington, MRV, Montpelier, etc.

Agreed. I need to head up to Stowe for an upslope day also.

[Nittany88]

The HRRR looks pretty pathetic.

[powderfreak]

The HRRR looks pretty pathetic.

So does the WRF from12z...it has next to nothing in a lot of the valleys, including nothing in Montpelier proper...the orographics are over-done, but if there's one place I'd favor in VT it's the Orange Heights over by the poster Allenson who lives at like 1300ft Those hill towns above 1,000f on the eastern side of the cordillera seem to get as much help as possible out of the low level jet if it comes from any southeasterly orientation. I could see 4" happening there and maybe 1.5-2" here (2-3" mountain).

[eyewall]

So does the WRF from12z...it has next to nothing in a lot of the valleys, including nothing in Montpelier proper...the orographics are over-done, but if there's one place I'd favor in VT it's the Orange Heights over by the poster Allenson who lives at like 1300ft Those hill towns above 1,000f on the eastern side of the cordillera seem to get as much help as possible out of the low level jet if it comes from any southeasterly orientation. I could see 4" happening there and maybe 1.5-2" here (2-3" mountain).

 

It is another nickle and dime event so I won't expect much here (and as the CPV often sees we may have ptype issues at some point). Hopefully we can get something halfway decent in time for Christmas. I do know I am excited for my first turns when family comes up that week .

[mreaves]

So does the WRF from12z...it has next to nothing in a lot of the valleys, including nothing in Montpelier proper...the orographics are over-done, but if there's one place I'd favor in VT it's the Orange Heights over by the poster Allenson who lives at like 1300ft Those hill towns above 1,000f on the eastern side of the cordillera seem to get as much help as possible out of the low level jet if it comes from any southeasterly orientation. I could see 4" happening there and maybe 1.5-2" here (2-3" mountain).

Yeah, the hills northeast of here do well in that type of flow. Allenson and I have talked about it before. There is a string of hills in Groton, Orange and Plainfield that top out over 3000' that pull in a ton of snow. I snowmobile through there quite a bit and have seen 4ft on the ground. Needless to say don't go off the trail on your sled! Hopefully we can pull down a couple of inches to make it white but I haven't seen much to suggest we will.

[ono]

Yeah, the hills northeast of here do well in that type of flow. Allenson and I have talked about it before. There is a string of hills in Groton, Orange and Plainfield that top out over 3000' that pull in a ton of snow. I snowmobile through there quite a bit and have seen 4ft on the ground. Needless to say don't go off the trail on your sled! Hopefully we can pull down a couple of inches to make it white but I haven't seen much to suggest we will.

 

what do you estimate those hills receive, on average, per year?  200"?  

[mreaves]

what do you estimate those hills receive, on average, per year? 200"?

It wouldn't surprise me if they received that much. There aren't many people living there so there isn't anything to go on for statistics, just the observations of those that travel through the area. Groton State Forest is a beautiful area and the second largest tract of land owned by the state (after Mt. Mansfield State Forest). It is like a southern outpost of the NEK. Allenson calls it the "near Kingdom".