uncle W Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 until I see better blocking via AO/NAO I'll wave goodbye to these minor waves especially this time of year...AO/NAO forecasts are up and down but mostly up...Maybe in January when it's ten degrees colder on average a system like this will give us some real snow or ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 until I see better blocking via AO/NAO I'll wave goodbye to these minor waves especially this time of year...AO/NAO forecasts are up and down but mostly up...Maybe in January when it's ten degrees colder on average a system like this will give us some real snow or ice... We actually had the second highest AO on record for November behind 1978. This is coming only two years after the strong +AO end to 2011. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not a good pattern it looks like on the gfs. A typical cutter-cold-cutter pattern though we're still seeing a lot of cold up north drilling down and strong highs as well. Maybe we could see a messy system next week at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 We actually had the second highest AO on record for November behind 1978. This is coming only two years after the strong +AO end to 2011. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table I did a quick check of Decembers with an average AO +1.000 or higher...They are... year.....snowfall 1951.....3.3" 1972.......T 1975.....2.3"...light snow Christmas day... 1979.....3.5" 1988.....0.3" 1990.....7.2"...only heavy snow... 1991.....0.7" 1992.....0.4" 1998.....2.0"...white Christmas snow... 1999.......T 2004.....3.0" 2006.......0 2011.......0 13yrs....1.7" ave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I did a quick check of Decembers with an average AO +1.000 or higher...They are... year.....snowfall 1951.....3.3" 1972.......T 1975.....2.3"...light snow Christmas day... 1979.....3.5" 1988.....0.3" 1990.....7.2"...only heavy snow... 1991.....0.7" 1992.....0.4" 1998.....2.0"...white Christmas snow... 1999.......T 2004.....3.0" 2006.......0 2011.......0 13yrs....1.7" ave... I think all but one of those winters ('04/'05) wound up with below avg snowfall for the season. Hopefully that is just a bad coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I think all but one of those winters ('04/'05) wound up with below avg snowfall for the season. Hopefully that is just a bad coincidence. Good memory 'cause you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Gfs looks nice for the wave for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Gfs looks nice for the wave for next week Watch for next weekend , as the PV lifts out of New England , I said yesterday that sometimes systems like to trail them as the head out . For some reason " bigger " Snows like the WEEKENDS in the NE . IMO The Euro showed it this AM , and may back off at some point , but as we get closer I thnk you may see it on the models this week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 some analogs talked about had snowfalls around this date...hopefully this event is at least as good as these...thats not saying much though... 1959...12/7.....0.3" 1961...12/10...1.1" 1962...12/9.....1.2" 1964...12/6.....0.3" 1989...12/8.....T-1" 1992...12/11...0.4" 1993...12/12...2.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Watch for next weekend , as the PV lifts out of New England , I said yesterday that sometimes systems like to trail them as the head out . For some reason " bigger " Snows like the WEEKENDS in the NE . IMO The Euro showed it this AM , and may back off at some point , but as we get closer I thnk you may see it on the models this week . GFS and GGEM shows it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Very cold shot into the Northeast this weekend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Euro says what warmup. Builds back the -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Incoming possible next Weekend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I have never seen such a cold stretch this sustained in NYC since December 2010. Let's hope this is a good sign for later this month. TuesdayA chance of light snow, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Tuesday NightMostly clear, with a low around 26. West wind around 15 mph. WednesdaySunny, with a high near 35. Wednesday NightMostly clear, with a low around 22. ThursdayMostly sunny, with a high near 27. Thursday NightMostly clear, with a low around 22. FridaySunny, with a high near 31. Friday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 23. SaturdayPartly sunny, with a high near 33. Saturday NightA chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%. SundayPartly sunny, with a high near 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Very cold shot into the Northeast this weekend . looks great now we have to have these teleconnectors eventually to work in tandem to get the cold locked in for the storms. im cautiously optimistic with what bluewave posted earlier this afternoon that January may be becoming for favorable for some action on the east coast. no matter even if we do get three years of lack luster winters who can complain after how good the 2000's overall have been to us snow-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Incoming possible next Weekend . Very intriguing scenario, basically a southern stream system attacking a polar high. Will have to monitor after the possible snow event on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Bone Chilling cold next weekend in the east on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Bone Chilling cold next weekend in the east on the GFSSingle digits into NYC. Below 0 temps just 50-75 nw of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Would be nice to have at least one day of highs not getting out of the teens next weekend. When was the last time that happened in NYC during December 14-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What happened to the pattern change? Geez just cold shot after cold shot. -EPO ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Single digits for NYC at 204 on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Snowstorm on the ECM @ 144 hrs out as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Would like to the center about 50 miles East , but Day 7 looks very robust . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 And the next 6 hours . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Its still COLD on Day 15 on the Euro Ensembles . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I cant see how we dont get atleast one minor-moderate snow threat this weekend and beyond before the cold moves out/reloads Pb gfi. This weekend does hold some nice potential, going with the recent trend for storms to be progressive i think this storm will trend east some. Biggest fear is without that sustained or atleast weakly transient west based -nao the coast does go over to rain not being able to damn the cold air in along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Its still COLD on Day 15 on the Euro Ensembles . Even if we dont get snow the cold will have some shot at some records. Be nice to break some record low max's to ruffle the jimmies of the "global warming crowd" (not starting a climate change debate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 There is quite a temperature contrast across Suffolk County this afternoon. Upper 30s - low 40's along the north shore, upper 40's - low 50's along the south shore, especially east of 111. 39 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Visibility has really dropped here in the last 15 minutes down under a half mile with some drizzle. Temp is 36.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 There is quite a temperature contrast across Suffolk County this afternoon. Upper 30s - low 40's along the north shore, upper 40's - low 50's along the south shore, especially east of 111. 39 here. got that right..i got 48* out here..wonder if that will have consequences on tomorrows snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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