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December Discussion Thread


IsentropicLift

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until I see better blocking via AO/NAO I'll wave goodbye to these minor waves especially this time of year...AO/NAO forecasts are up and down but mostly up...Maybe in January when it's ten degrees colder on average a system like this will give us some real snow or ice...

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until I see better blocking via AO/NAO I'll wave goodbye to these minor waves especially this time of year...AO/NAO forecasts are up and down but mostly up...Maybe in January when it's ten degrees colder on average a system like this will give us some real snow or ice...

 

We actually had the second highest AO on record for November behind 1978. This is coming only

two years after the strong +AO end to 2011.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

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We actually had the second highest AO on record for November behind 1978. This is coming only

two years after the strong +AO end to 2011.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

I did a quick check of Decembers with an average AO +1.000 or higher...They are...

year.....snowfall

1951.....3.3"

1972.......T

1975.....2.3"...light snow Christmas day...

1979.....3.5"

1988.....0.3"

1990.....7.2"...only heavy snow...

1991.....0.7"

1992.....0.4"

1998.....2.0"...white Christmas snow...

1999.......T

2004.....3.0"

2006.......0

2011.......0

13yrs....1.7" ave...

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I did a quick check of Decembers with an average AO +1.000 or higher...They are...

year.....snowfall

1951.....3.3"

1972.......T

1975.....2.3"...light snow Christmas day...

1979.....3.5"

1988.....0.3"

1990.....7.2"...only heavy snow...

1991.....0.7"

1992.....0.4"

1998.....2.0"...white Christmas snow...

1999.......T

2004.....3.0"

2006.......0

2011.......0

13yrs....1.7" ave...

I think all but one of those winters ('04/'05) wound up with below avg snowfall for the season.  Hopefully that is just a bad coincidence.

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I think all but one of those winters ('04/'05) wound up with below avg snowfall for the season.  Hopefully that is just a bad coincidence.

 

Good memory 'cause you are right.

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Gfs looks nice for the wave for next week

Watch for next weekend , as the PV lifts out of New England ,  I said yesterday that sometimes systems like to trail them as the head out . For some reason " bigger "  Snows like the  WEEKENDS in the NE . IMO

The Euro showed it this AM , and may back off at some point , but as we get closer I thnk you may see it on the models this week .

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some analogs talked about had snowfalls around this date...hopefully this event is at least as good as these...thats not saying much though...

1959...12/7.....0.3"

1961...12/10...1.1"

1962...12/9.....1.2"

1964...12/6.....0.3"

1989...12/8.....T-1"

1992...12/11...0.4"

1993...12/12...2.9"

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Watch for next weekend , as the PV lifts out of New England ,  I said yesterday that sometimes systems like to trail them as the head out . For some reason " bigger "  Snows like the  WEEKENDS in the NE . IMO

The Euro showed it this AM , and may back off at some point , but as we get closer I thnk you may see it on the models this week .

GFS and GGEM shows it

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I have never seen such a cold stretch this sustained in NYC since December 2010. Let's hope this is a good sign for later this month.

 


  • TuesdayA chance of light snow, mainly before 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Northwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
  • Tuesday NightMostly clear, with a low around 26. West wind around 15 mph.
  • WednesdaySunny, with a high near 35.
  • Wednesday NightMostly clear, with a low around 22.
  • ThursdayMostly sunny, with a high near 27.
  • Thursday NightMostly clear, with a low around 22.
  • FridaySunny, with a high near 31.
  • Friday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 23.
  • SaturdayPartly sunny, with a high near 33.
  • Saturday NightA chance of light snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
  • SundayPartly sunny, with a high near 32.
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ecmwf_t850a_noram_23.png

Very cold shot into the Northeast this weekend .

looks great now we have to have these teleconnectors eventually to work in tandem to get the cold locked in for the storms. im cautiously optimistic with what bluewave posted earlier this afternoon that January may be becoming for favorable for some action on the east coast. no matter even if we do get three years of lack luster winters who can complain after how good the 2000's overall have been to us snow-wise

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I cant see how we dont get atleast one minor-moderate snow threat this weekend and beyond before the cold moves out/reloads Pb gfi. This weekend does hold some nice potential, going with the recent trend for storms to be progressive i think this storm will trend east some. Biggest fear is without that sustained or atleast weakly transient west based -nao the coast does go over to rain not being able to damn the cold air in along the coast

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There is quite a temperature contrast across Suffolk County this afternoon.  Upper 30s - low 40's along the north shore, upper 40's - low 50's along the south shore, especially east of 111.

 

39 here.

got that right..i got 48* out here..wonder if that will have 

consequences on tomorrows snow?

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