bluewave Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 As long as Canada is cold , keeps hope alive that mayb the warm ups are muted . If week 3 relaxes thats ok , if that water stays warm in the northern PAC then mayb we reload. Its really been 6 week period below normal , prob overdue Well we are bound to see a relaxation for at least a time of that -EPO ridge that has been dominating the pattern. It will allow the colder air to retreat to the north into Canada as the Pacific Jet cuts underneath. The Euro ensembles bring in a neutral +EPO for a time around the middle of December. The Canadian ensembles have the same look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Well we are bound to see a relaxation for at least a time of that -EPO ridge that has been dominating the pattern. It will allow the colder air to retreat to the north into Canada as the Pacific Jet cuts underneath. The Euro ensembles bring in a neutral +EPO for a time around the middle of December. The Canadian ensembles have the same look. epo.png EDH101-240.gif f240.gif The 12z GFS does kinda mute the warmup . Didnt expect any Snow with these 2 waves , but will stil be in the game in the LR if the GFS is right , Some real COLD on those maps Euro weeklies tonight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The 12z GFS does kinda mute the warmup . Didnt expect any Snow with these 2 waves , but will stil be in the game in the LR if the GFS is right , Some real COLD on those maps Euro weeklies tonight ? It may end up being like what we are seeing this week. The GEFS underestimated the current warm up in the east 10 days ago. 11-25 10 day forecast Verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Magnitude of anomalies are generally muted in the longer range. Case in point the cold is stronger than progged in the West, and the warmth is stronger than progged in the East. If global teleconnectors support a mild pattern, very likely it will be milder than current guidance for the 15th-20th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest user123 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I agree on the fact that 10 days out model guidance is usually muted, however the GFS has consistently shown not only a downward trend but also barely any moderation at all, as opposed to the above maps which at least hinted at the idea. I could be wrong, but I believe the EURO trended a bit cooler as well. 10 days ago it did not seem so flippy-floppy. I could be wrong, but this is just my two cents. I'm new to AmWx, BTW. Nice to meet you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Magnitude of anomalies are generally muted in the longer range. Case in point the cold is stronger than progged in the West, and the warmth is stronger than progged in the East. If global teleconnectors support a mild pattern, very likely it will be milder than current guidance for the 15th-20th period. I never fully buy any LR , but I thnk this warm up was pretty well modeled on the Euro last week .I dont think the models 15 days ago saw the cold period coming into the East over the 5 days starting Sunday . I`m sure we break a bit , but thats all NW , cross polar flow in Canada , doesnt take much to split the trough and send a piece south . I will wait to see the Euro ensembles and see how long theres a zonal flow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I never fully buy any LR , but I thnk this warm up was pretty well modeled on the Euro last week .I dont think the models 15 days ago saw the cold period coming into the East over the 5 days starting Sunday . I`m sure we break a bit , but thats all NW , cross polar flow in Canada , doesnt take much to split the trough and send a piece south . I will wait to see the Euro ensembles and see how long theres a zonal flow . The thing to watch for is if the next -EPO pulse pushes height rises into Western Canada like the present one or it reloads a few degrees further west? A further west building would probably mean that the cold coming in next week here will be the lowest departures of the month followed by a warmup. The next cool down later in the month would be more muted. The GEFS are hinting at this type of scenario, but we'll see how things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Day 7 Snow ATLANTA 12z euro , Hope that verifies for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z Euro . Im sure a broken record or 2 are gona be close with those numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z Euro . Im sure a broken record or 2 are gona be close with those numbers It looks like the best shot of record lows will be interior spots that go calm when the 1040 mb high passes over the second night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It looks like the best shot of record lows will be interior spots that go calm when the 1040 mb high passes over the second night. Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_168.gif Euro gona be colder than GFS , Sees a Deeper snow cover throughout Upstate NY through all of New England . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro gona be colder than GFS , Sees a Deeper snow cover throughout Upstate NY through all of New England . That polar vortex is really going to spike the AO when it pushes east of Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Minus 20 air over snow cover Wed Morning , single digits probably show up just NW on NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Little sneaky wave keeps on showing up on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Little sneaky wave keeps on showing up on the gfs That 3rd wave has been there for the last 2 days .Its possible the NW flow behind system 2 allows the 3rd piece of energy to escape to the South, and places like SNJ and the Delmarva pick up an inch or 2 . The push of low level air cold Monday night is going to look to overpower that ridge Tues so your following 4 days features a flexing ridge that turns you over followed by NW flow that flattens the ridge just enough and the moisture from the last wave gets shoved wide right . The hope is the Boundary level gets hung up just enough , but you will need luck to be underneath that . Not saying it cant happen, I hope it does, just sometimes living here you get pulled foul, followed by wide right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The monthly Euro control run is very cold week 3 and 4 over the east as it splits the PV in Canada and sends a piece into the eastern third of the nation The Euro weeklies are AWFUL week 3 and 4 and are very warm throughout . I don't put a lot of stock post 15 days , but just relaying the guidance . The Japanese Monthlies are out at 5 AM and its been pretty good since early NOV , so maybe they can shed a little more insight going into Jan . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 What exactly constitutes a torch or very warm? Is there a specific threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 What exactly constitutes a torch or very warm? Is there a specific threshold. It is subjective in my opinion. A cold rain falls with temps in the mid 30's, temps in the mid to upper 40's during the winter is mild and temps in the 50's is the low end of a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The monthly Euro control run is very cold week 3 and 4 over the east as it splits the PV in Canada and sends a piece into the eastern third of the nation The Euro weeklies are AWFUL week 3 and 4 and are very warm throughout . I don't put a lot of stock post 15 days , but just relaying the guidance . The Japanese Monthlies are out at 5 AM and its been pretty good since early NOV , so maybe they can shed a little more insight going into Jan . They may be picking up on the -EPO ridge split around day 10 that the models started showing last few runs. We would at least go into a more zonal flow as heights build over Siberia and north of Hawaii with colder air remaining closer to the border and in Canada. It would mean that the strongest -EPO of December will be what we are currently experiencing. The MJO 3-4 push that the models have been showing may be shaking the pattern up a bit out in the North Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 They may be picking up on the -EPO ridge split around day 10 that the models started showing last few runs. We would at least go into a more zonal flow as heights build over Siberia and north of Hawaii with colder air remaining closer to the border and in Canada. It would mean that the strongest -EPO of December will be what we are currently experiencing. The MJO 3-4 push that the models have been showing may be shaking the pattern up a bit out in the North Pacific. f240.gif Day 15 on the Euro ensembles , keeps the WPO neg . Takes the EPO pos , but it looks to build the PNA . The ridge takes up residence off the West Coast .So by Day 10 and11 ish it actually drops a piece of the Vortex into New England and the East is colder on the 16th after this upcoming Wed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 If the -EPO ridge fades for a while, I think any cool down will be transient as the tendency will be for cold to remain just to our north. Not sure if the pattern shifts to just a few degrees above normal or a more significant warm up. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-update-into-early-january/20697494 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Hopefully the WPO can drive the Pattern in Canada enough , so if there is any help on the Atlantic side we can get cold air if and when storms get to the EC. This cold and dry and warm wet pattern doesn't do it for me . I agree a zonal flow after looks like a good bet , but is it 7 days or 3 weeks into mid Jan ? We have been below since OCT 15 th . JMA monthlies are out , haven't looked , hope they have some good news on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Central Park is running +5.8 so far December. They hit 60 last night and 62 this morning. Tomorrow's departures won't be enough to erase it, for this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Central Park is running +5.8 so far December. They hit 60 last night and 62 this morning. Tomorrow's departures won't be enough to erase it, for this week.Simaler departures here... with a couple of -10 or greater departures next week should have that departure closer to 0 come late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 If the -EPO ridge fades for a while, I think any cool down will be transient as the tendency will be for cold to remain just to our north. Not sure if the pattern shifts to just a few degrees above normal or a more significant warm up. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/long-range-update-into-early-january/20697494 Back on 10/23 Accuweather's 6wk. daily forecast did not have a 32 deg. reading for NYC till Dec. 01, when of course it was above normal as you know. We hit 32 on Nov. 12th., tied a record 'Low-High' of 39 degs. the next day and got as low as 23 degs. for the month, with multiple sub 32 deg. days. Even short term forecasts are easily wrong when you have fixated on the wrong atmospheric anomalies as your significant weather makers! Easily could happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Hopefully the WPO can drive the Pattern in Canada enough , so if there is any help on the Atlantic side we can get cold air if and when storms get to the EC. This cold and dry and warm wet pattern doesn't do it for me . I agree a zonal flow after looks like a good bet , but is it 7 days or 3 weeks into mid Jan ? We have been below since OCT 15 th . JMA monthlies are out , haven't looked , hope they have some good news on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Back on 10/23 Accuweather's 6wk. daily forecast did not have a 32 deg. reading for NYC till Dec. 01, when of course it was above normal as you know. We hit 32 on Nov. 12th., tied a record 'Low-High' of 39 degs. the next day and got as low as 23 degs. for the month, with multiple sub 32 deg. days. Even short term forecasts are easily wrong when you have fixated on the wrong atmospheric anomalies as your significant weather makers! Easily could happen again. Weeklies..they are accurate to a point..in many cases they are wrong too..they had a balmy November for us..Again anything past a week take with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I really never expected much from December. Maybe January will have something nice in store for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Sounds like the Euro weeklies are at odds with the CFSv2 as posted in the medium range thread. Uncertainty is really the only thing we can hang our hats on at this point because there's still no real help from the Atlantic showing up imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Back on 10/23 Accuweather's 6wk. daily forecast did not have a 32 deg. reading for NYC till Dec. 01, when of course it was above normal as you know. We hit 32 on Nov. 12th., tied a record 'Low-High' of 39 degs. the next day and got as low as 23 degs. for the month, with multiple sub 32 deg. days. Even short term forecasts are easily wrong when you have fixated on the wrong atmospheric anomalies as your significant weather makers! Easily could happen again. Small changes in the 6-10 day forecast often make the weeklies unusable beyond week 1 and 2. So the rise in the -EPO beginning to show up in the 6-10 day is the important factor to look at. Less -EPO blocking will mean a more zonal flow day 11-15 and potentially beyond. But specific temperature anomalies beyond the euro 11-15 ensemble mean are a mostly a guess. The Euro weeklies for 3 and 4 are sometimes ok in a stable pattern that just continues. But many times, the skill is just too low to be usable beyond day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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