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December Discussion Thread


IsentropicLift

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At hour 198 on the 12z Euro the -18C 850mb line is southeast of NYC and Long Island. Surface temps are in the lower teens for NYC. Single digits NW of I-95. All of Western PA and southwestward towards northern WV and southeastern Ohio are all below zero. By hour 216 the city is lower single digits. PA is all below zero. Just incredible cold. 

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At hour 198 on the 12z Euro the -18C 850mb line is southeast of NYC and Long Island. Surface temps are in the lower teens for NYC. Single digits NW of I-95. All of Western PA and southwestward towards northern WV and southeastern Ohio are all below zero. By hour 216 the city is lower single digits. PA is all below zero. Just incredible cold. 

 

Given that NYC hasn't seen lower single digits (<4F) in nearly a decade (Jan 04) and in early Dec (Dec 1 - 15) since the end of the Grant Administration (1876), I'm gonna take that with the usual grain o' salt.

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Euro has temperatures below 0 throughout much of Northern New Jersey at 200+ hours. Really a sight to see. And highly unlikely.

 

 

 

I'm not sure if the depth of the cold will produce that either, though a -4 SD -EPO event is impressive and I wouldn't be surprised to see single digit type lows in the NJ suburbs with 10s in NYC.

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I'm not sure if the depth of the cold will produce that either, though a -4 SD -EPO event is impressive and I wouldn't be surprised to see single digit type lows in the NJ suburbs with 10s in NYC.

 

 

In December 2008, a strong analog for this pattern, NYC had a low of 19F in early December with a cold shot and a low of 13F for their month minimum on the 22nd of December. I think a similar situation could occur this month, with a low possibly in the lower 10s for NYC and single digits in NNJ.

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A low temp of 0F in the Dec 10-14 range in Central Park is nearly 4 standard deviations below the mean and has never been recorded.

I could see low teens especially if we have appreciable snowcover of any kind. But I think it will be hard for the heat island to get below 15 with no snowcover. Probably upper teens.

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It does look like the first teens of the season for NYC next week. It's very impressive for 

the potential of some subzero readings back toward the Ohio Valley this early 

in December. The gradient pattern analogs for this month highlight big temperature

swings from teens one week to 50's to around 60 like we are seeing this week.

Probably a moderating trend coming up some time during week 3 of December.

 

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It does look like the first teens of the season for NYC next week. It's very impressive for 

the potential of some subzero readings back toward the Ohio Valley this early 

in December. The gradient pattern analogs for this month highlight big temperature

swings from teens one week to 50's to around 60 like we are seeing this week.

Probably a moderating trend coming up some time during week 3 of December.

 

attachicon.gifgfs180hr_sfc_tmin.gif

While the 00z Euro backed off of its extreme cold in the long range, it still shows a possible high in the 20's for NYC one week from today.

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Upton for Friday night's event

 

"BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN
TO SNOW TRANSITION. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FROM NW TO SE. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIP WRAPS
UP."
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"BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH FOR A POSSIBLE RAIN
TO SNOW TRANSITION. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FROM NW TO SE. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIP WRAPS
UP."

this is what happened in early December 1964...will it happen again?...

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It does look like the first teens of the season for NYC next week. It's very impressive for 

the potential of some subzero readings back toward the Ohio Valley this early 

in December. The gradient pattern analogs for this month highlight big temperature

swings from teens one week to 50's to around 60 like we are seeing this week.

Probably a moderating trend coming up some time during week 3 of December.

 

attachicon.gifgfs180hr_sfc_tmin.gif

hopefully the cold returns with some snow for Christmas...

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While the 00z Euro backed off of its extreme cold in the long range, it still shows a possible high in the 20's for NYC one week from today.

 

An MJO 3-4 push would mean that the cold departures next week will probably be the lowest that we see for a while as the 

pattern moderates for the third week of the month. 

 

 

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An MJO 3-4 push would mean that the cold departures next week will probably be the lowest that we see for a while as the 

pattern moderates for the third week of the month. 

 

attachicon.gifECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

 

attachicon.gifcombined_image.png

The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean was pretty cold right through the end of its run, although not as cold as 12z. They have many days where we theoretically wouldn't get above freezing next week, especially inland. 

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An MJO 3-4 push would mean that the cold departures next week will probably be the lowest that we see for a while as the

pattern moderates for the third week of the month.

Eh it doesn't look so clear to me and it seems to collapse after it goes into phase 3. I think signals are still fairly mixed with no clear cut weather pattern for us.

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An MJO 3-4 push would mean that the cold departures next week will probably be the lowest that we see for a while as the

pattern moderates for the third week of the month.

Eh it doesn't look so clear to me and it seems to collapse after it goes into phase 3. I think signals are still fairly mixed with no clear cut weather pattern for us.

So, probably -1 to +1 for Week 3.

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