IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 The 12z GEFS are cold and stormy. We stay below freezing from hours 186 to 384, at all levels and in all regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 At hour 198 on the 12z Euro the -18C 850mb line is southeast of NYC and Long Island. Surface temps are in the lower teens for NYC. Single digits NW of I-95. All of Western PA and southwestward towards northern WV and southeastern Ohio are all below zero. By hour 216 the city is lower single digits. PA is all below zero. Just incredible cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 At hour 198 on the 12z Euro the -18C 850mb line is southeast of NYC and Long Island. Surface temps are in the lower teens for NYC. Single digits NW of I-95. All of Western PA and southwestward towards northern WV and southeastern Ohio are all below zero. By hour 216 the city is lower single digits. PA is all below zero. Just incredible cold. Given that NYC hasn't seen lower single digits (<4F) in nearly a decade (Jan 04) and in early Dec (Dec 1 - 15) since the end of the Grant Administration (1876), I'm gonna take that with the usual grain o' salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro has temperatures below 0 throughout much of Northern New Jersey at 200+ hours. Really a sight to see. And highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro has temperatures below 0 throughout much of Northern New Jersey at 200+ hours. Really a sight to see. And highly unlikely. A low temp of 0F in the Dec 10-14 range in Central Park is nearly 4 standard deviations below the mean and has never been recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 WPO pattern means business! Record smashing historic cold is pouring into the nation next week. Joe B has been warning about this possiblitlity for the past two weeks, anologging 1983 outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 http://www.wunderground.com/news/cold-records-beat-warm-records-first-time-1993-20131203 Thought this was pretty interesting. With the arctic outbreak coming, I hope to see 2013 coming in with more cold records than warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro has temperatures below 0 throughout much of Northern New Jersey at 200+ hours. Really a sight to see. And highly unlikely. Pretty incredible to see even if it's highly unlikely to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro has temperatures below 0 throughout much of Northern New Jersey at 200+ hours. Really a sight to see. And highly unlikely. I'm not sure if the depth of the cold will produce that either, though a -4 SD -EPO event is impressive and I wouldn't be surprised to see single digit type lows in the NJ suburbs with 10s in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I'm not sure if the depth of the cold will produce that either, though a -4 SD -EPO event is impressive and I wouldn't be surprised to see single digit type lows in the NJ suburbs with 10s in NYC. In December 2008, a strong analog for this pattern, NYC had a low of 19F in early December with a cold shot and a low of 13F for their month minimum on the 22nd of December. I think a similar situation could occur this month, with a low possibly in the lower 10s for NYC and single digits in NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 A low temp of 0F in the Dec 10-14 range in Central Park is nearly 4 standard deviations below the mean and has never been recorded. I could see low teens especially if we have appreciable snowcover of any kind. But I think it will be hard for the heat island to get below 15 with no snowcover. Probably upper teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 7 F low in Sussex Couny last week. I'm not sure if the depth of the cold will produce that either, though a -4 SD -EPO event is impressive and I wouldn't be surprised to see single digit type lows in the NJ suburbs with 10s in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro has temperatures below 0 throughout much of Northern New Jersey at 200+ hours. Really a sight to see. And highly unlikely. How is this possible with 850mb temps only -6C? The core the cold is past us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 How is this possible with 850mb temps only -6C? The core the cold is past us. its not possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Flavor of the season is hedge on the cold side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Where the Euro is showing below 0 lows, is also where snow depth maps are showing 6"+, on Weatherbell (which have been inaccurate). So that is probably a factor. Regardless, I do think teens for NYC and single digits NW for lows is possible next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It does look like the first teens of the season for NYC next week. It's very impressive for the potential of some subzero readings back toward the Ohio Valley this early in December. The gradient pattern analogs for this month highlight big temperature swings from teens one week to 50's to around 60 like we are seeing this week. Probably a moderating trend coming up some time during week 3 of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 It does look like the first teens of the season for NYC next week. It's very impressive for the potential of some subzero readings back toward the Ohio Valley this early in December. The gradient pattern analogs for this month highlight big temperature swings from teens one week to 50's to around 60 like we are seeing this week. Probably a moderating trend coming up some time during week 3 of December. gfs180hr_sfc_tmin.gif While the 00z Euro backed off of its extreme cold in the long range, it still shows a possible high in the 20's for NYC one week from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Upton for Friday night's event "BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAYNIGHT...ENOUGH COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH FOR A POSSIBLE RAINTO SNOW TRANSITION. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FROM NW TO SE. LIGHTSNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIP WRAPSUP." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 "BY LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAYNIGHT...ENOUGH COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH FOR A POSSIBLE RAINTO SNOW TRANSITION. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FROM NW TO SE. LIGHTSNOW ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIP WRAPSUP." this is what happened in early December 1964...will it happen again?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It does look like the first teens of the season for NYC next week. It's very impressive for the potential of some subzero readings back toward the Ohio Valley this early in December. The gradient pattern analogs for this month highlight big temperature swings from teens one week to 50's to around 60 like we are seeing this week. Probably a moderating trend coming up some time during week 3 of December. gfs180hr_sfc_tmin.gif hopefully the cold returns with some snow for Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 While the 00z Euro backed off of its extreme cold in the long range, it still shows a possible high in the 20's for NYC one week from today. An MJO 3-4 push would mean that the cold departures next week will probably be the lowest that we see for a while as the pattern moderates for the third week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 An MJO 3-4 push would mean that the cold departures next week will probably be the lowest that we see for a while as the pattern moderates for the third week of the month. ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif combined_image.png The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean was pretty cold right through the end of its run, although not as cold as 12z. They have many days where we theoretically wouldn't get above freezing next week, especially inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Great radar shots out of msp. Nice tracking winter storms again. Mod snow currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 The pattern post day 6 on the 12z GFS has potential. Trough in the east, ridge building into the west. Pretty strong northern stream vort dropping down with energy sitting near the 4 corners region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 An MJO 3-4 push would mean that the cold departures next week will probably be the lowest that we see for a while as the pattern moderates for the third week of the month. Eh it doesn't look so clear to me and it seems to collapse after it goes into phase 3. I think signals are still fairly mixed with no clear cut weather pattern for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 An MJO 3-4 push would mean that the cold departures next week will probably be the lowest that we see for a while as the pattern moderates for the third week of the month. Eh it doesn't look so clear to me and it seems to collapse after it goes into phase 3. I think signals are still fairly mixed with no clear cut weather pattern for us. So, probably -1 to +1 for Week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Hopefully this cold then warm/cutter pattern is not something that happens all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Hopefully this cold then warm/cutter pattern is not something that happens all winter.that's what happens when you have a strong polar vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 that's what happens when you have a strong polar vortex What is causing our cold shots to be so strong? We did not have that in 11-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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