December Discussion Thread

[MJO812]

You see absolutely nothing that can offset that? The cold will be so close by I don't think anyone can call for a big torch right now.

Well he does have a point though. If we lose the -epo, we are screwed. For the next two weeks, the pattern looks favorable for cold and possibly snow.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Well he does have a point though. If we lose the -epo, we are screwed. For the next two weeks, the pattern looks favorable for cold and possibly snow.

Oh I know it could certainly torch, and he may very well be correct with that. But I've seen some say the mjo may become more favorable later in the month. And for the first time in a few years there will be serious cold near by. It may torch for a period but I doubt it's long term

[SnoSki14]

We have an developing strong -PNA and a +NAO, while the EPO is negative once we loose that (and we will) I expect a pretty big torch for the area.

I doubt that, the cold source won't just vanish unless the EPO stays positive for a prolonged period of time.

[doncat]

Geez with the use of the word "torch" for every little warmup.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I doubt that, the cold source won't just vanish unless the EPO stays positive for a prolonged period of time.

The cold source isn't going to vanish. I have said all along that I think we will have periods of extremely cold weather throughout this winter. But the problem is that the moisture will NOT arrive here during cold periods. When we are really cold, we are on strong northwesterly winds between approaching high pressure and exiting low pressure. And the problem is that things will keep moving along. The cold air is NOT going to get locked in anytime soon.

WX/PT

[Absolute Humidity]

The cold source isn't going to vanish. I have said all along that I think we will have periods of extremely cold weather throughout this winter. But the problem is that the moisture will NOT arrive here during cold periods. When we are really cold, we are on strong northwesterly winds between approaching high pressure and exiting low pressure. And the problem is that things will keep moving along. The cold air is NOT going to get locked in anytime soon.

WX/PT

Hence, wash rinse repeat pattern. It feels a lot like those sucky years in the 90's that saw bitter cold end with rainstorms.

[Guest Pamela]

Hence, wash rinse repeat pattern. It feels a lot like those sucky years in the 90's that saw bitter cold end with rainstorms.

 

Interesting use of the past tense of the verb *feel*...on the 2nd of December...

[SnowGoose69]

The event at 140 hours will 100% be a front end thump snow event at the very least and possibly more with the setup in place, the key will be to NOT get the big time surface low development down over the TN Valley and to keep the upper wave weak enough so all we really do is toss a ton of lift over that hugh 1040mb high and get overruning, if we get a big wave developing we may get a few inches of snow on the front end and then go over to rain.

[Guest Pamela]

The cold source isn't going to vanish. I have said all along that I think we will have periods of extremely cold weather throughout this winter. But the problem is that the moisture will NOT arrive here during cold periods. When we are really cold, we are on strong northwesterly winds between approaching high pressure and exiting low pressure. And the problem is that things will keep moving along. The cold air is NOT going to get locked in anytime soon.

WX/PT

 

You have written on your blog many times that long range forecasting is essentially educated guess work...but you write here with complete certainty and w/o the slightest doubt that you are correct...as per your use of absolutes such as "NOT"....capitalized for good measure...these two views seem to be at odds with one another... 

[Guest Pamela]

You have written on your blog many times that long range forecasting is essentially educated guess work...but you write here with complete certainty and w/o the slightest doubt that you are correct...as per your use of absolutes such as "NOT"....capitalized for good measure...these two views seem to be at odds with one another... 

 

The point I am trying to make here is that it is quite foolish to make profound pronouncements about something that is invariably a borderline & very difficult forecast (rain vs snow in this area this time of year) days or weeks in advance.  You can argue that "it appears*...or "indications strongly imply or favor"...but speaking in absolutes (one way or the other) is just setting one self up for failure. 

[Storm At Sea]

This is illogical. All if the indices you speak of are fluid. It's pretty clear that even as the -EPO relaxes, the PNA turns best ram to slightly positive while the NAO turns neutral to slight negative. I think we're fine. Expect cold fringe benefits including a few inches of snow here or there.

We have an developing strong -PNA and a +NAO, while the EPO is negative once we loose that (and we will) I expect a pretty big torch for the area.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

You have written on your blog many times that long range forecasting is essentially educated guess work...but you write here with complete certainty and w/o the slightest doubt that you are correct...as per your use of absolutes such as "NOT"....capitalized for good measure...these two views seem to be at odds with one another... 

I'm not (above) talking long range. We are talking 7-10 days. Long range is usually defined as months+. When we speak of the pattern, we are speak of what is going on. To just read each model run doesn't make a good forecast. It doesn't take rocket science no-less meteorology to see what's happening here. All weather systems are moving right along from west to east. The one time they didn't, the pre-Thanksgiving storm moved just west of us and brought us into the warm sector. This is not speculation. But what happens beyond two or three weeks is largely speculation and "educated guess work"--as I say in my blog. In order to see something very different, we will need additional weather pattern changes.

WX/PT

[NorthShoreWx]

On the idea that cold air in the middle of the country has to bleed east...take a look at 1974-75.  The Midwest was brutally cold for weeks while we torched.  There was no satisfaction in the occasional incursions of near normal temperatures to the east.

 

Edit:  I think it was 74-75.  If not, it was one of the winters in the 70's (obviously not 77 or 78)

[Wxoutlooksblog]

On the idea that cold air in the middle of the country has to bleed east...take a look at 1974-75.  The Midwest was brutally cold for weeks while we torched.  There was no satisfaction in the occasional incursions of near normal temperatures to the east.

Exactly. And though I do not pretend to know where we will be at four weeks from now, at the moment, there is a trend toward something like the season of 1974-75.

WX/PT

[Absolute Humidity]

Interesting use of the past tense of the verb *feel*...on the 2nd of December...

Haha yes, I was primarily referring to recent rainstorm that began with cold and two snowflakes then ended with cold and two snowflakes. Can't complain thought, I did get to see a wonderful winter landscape on Thanksgiving at sisters home in Warren County. She lives about 1,200' ASL and there was plenty of snow up there; relatively speaking, about an inch and a half.

[ADKweather27]

This is illogical. All if the indices you speak of are fluid. It's pretty clear that even as the -EPO relaxes, the PNA turns best ram to slightly positive while the NAO turns neutral to slight negative. I think we're fine. Expect cold fringe benefits including a few inches of snow here or there.

I am not seeing this, lets wait and see how the next few weeks play out

[bluewave]

The Euro ensembles continue to advertise the next chance of -10 or lower departures coming next

week. The best chance of record breaking cold will be in regions to our west with the chill modifying

some as it comes east.

 

 

 

 

[Snowshack]

The event at 140 hours will 100% be a front end thump snow event at the very least and possibly more with the setup in place, the key will be to NOT get the big time surface low development down over the TN Valley and to keep the upper wave weak enough so all we really do is toss a ton of lift over that hugh 1040mb high and get overruning, if we get a big wave developing we may get a few inches of snow on the front end and then go over to rain.

Hope you're right.  6z GFS takes that TN Valley low up through Buffalo, New England is able to hold on to enough cold air for a while, but looks hostile to me for us on the coast. 

 

Seems like a whole lot more uncertainty about the long term this year than in the past few years.  Hopefully the '74-'75 idea doesn't play out.

[Ralph Wiggum]

The event at 140 hours will 100% be a front end thump snow event at the very least and possibly more with the setup in place, the key will be to NOT get the big time surface low development down over the TN Valley and to keep the upper wave weak enough so all we really do is toss a ton of lift over that hugh 1040mb high and get overruning, if we get a big wave developing we may get a few inches of snow on the front end and then go over to rain.

Hope you're right.  6z GFS takes that TN Valley low up through Buffalo, New England is able to hold on to enough cold air for a while, but looks hostile to me for us on the coast. 

 

Seems like a whole lot more uncertainty about the long term this year than in the past few years.  Hopefully the '74-'75 idea doesn't play out.

With an 850 low in the OV we're doomed

[Ralph Wiggum]

The event at 140 hours will 100% be a front end thump snow event at the very least and possibly more with the setup in place, the key will be to NOT get the big time surface low development down over the TN Valley and to keep the upper wave weak enough so all we really do is toss a ton of lift over that hugh 1040mb high and get overruning, if we get a big wave developing we may get a few inches of snow on the front end and then go over to rain.

Hope you're right. 6z GFS takes that TN Valley low up through Buffalo, New England is able to hold on to enough cold air for a while, but looks hostile to me for us on the coast.

Seems like a whole lot more uncertainty about the long term this year than in the past few years. Hopefully the '74-'75 idea doesn't play out.

With an 850 low in the OV we're doomed.

[KEITH L.I]

On the idea that cold air in the middle of the country has to bleed east...take a look at 1974-75.  The Midwest was brutally cold for weeks while we torched.  There was no satisfaction in the occasional incursions of near normal temperatures to the east.

 

Edit:  I think it was 74-75.  If not, it was one of the winters in the 70's (obviously not 77 or 78)

you know 77-78 did not start off that great..very little winter weather until mid January..Christmas day was in the 50's..and why 74-75?..lol many December's have started off this way and there have been much worst patterns

[bluewave]

We usually end up finishing Decembers with a -EPO gradient pattern on the warmer side of normal. 

 

NYC December departures and snowfall

 

2008....+0.8.....6.0"

1992....+1.7.....0.4"

1984...+7.6......5.5"

1983...-1.0....1.6"

1972...+2.6....T

1971...+4.1....T

1964...+0.5...3.1"

1951...+3.8...3.3"

 

 

[uncle W]

December 1964 (one of your analogs and mine) started out cold but a storm a few days later gave us mostly rain and milder temperatures...there was a second wave that started as a cold rain on the 5th and mixed with sleet around midnight...It was mostly rain and sleet until the end when it changed to snow...it was the first measurable snow of the season...I remember being up late and looking at the street light and watching for the rain and sleet to turn to snow...It was forecast to do so...But in the end it was a failure...we had a 3" snowfall on the 20th that melted by midnight Christmas eve...Christmas eve was mild and foggy...Christmas day was 60 in NYC and 69 in Newark...It was 60 for three straight days...It got colder after that and January was good...A few times that winter it had a stalled frontal system with a trailing second wave...This happened on January 10th when 6-8" of unexpected snow fell after a mild and drizzly day...I'd take a 1964-65 type winter but it didn't have any KU events and February lacked significant snow...25-30" fell across the city that winter...

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

We usually end up finishing Decembers with a -EPO gradient pattern on the warmer side of normal. 

 

NYC December departures and snowfall

 

2008....+0.8.....6.0"

1992....+1.7.....0.4"

1984...+7.6......5.5"

1983...-1.0....1.6"

1972...+2.6....T

1971...+4.1....T

1964...+0.5...3.1"

1951...+3.8...3.3"

 

500.png

 

temp.png

 

No arguing against this. 

[uncle W]

NYC December departures and snowfall

 

2008....+0.8.....6.0"

1992....+1.7.....0.4"

1984...+7.6......5.5"

1983...-1.0....1.6"

1972...+2.6....T

1971...+4.1....T

1964...+0.5...3.1"

1951...+3.8...3.3"
the only bad winter was 1972-73 and it was the second or third strongest El Nino on record...

2008...27.2" of snow.....8.3" biggest snow...very cold January...

1992...24.5" of snow...10.6" biggest snow...super storm...Cold February...

1984...24.1" of snow.....5.7" biggest snow...very cold January...

1983...25.4" of snow.....6.9" biggest snow...very cold January...

1972.....2.8" of snow.....1.8" biggest snow....

1971...22.9" of snow.....5.7" biggest snow...cold February...

1964...24.4" of snow.....6.3" biggest snow...cold January...

1951...19.7" of snow.....5.5" biggest snow...

 

[IsentropicLift]

No shortage of events to watch in the medium and long range. At least it won't be a boring dry pattern like we had most of the past three months.

[NorthShoreWx]

you know 77-78 did not start off that great..very little winter weather until mid January..Christmas day was in the 50's..and why 74-75?..lol many December's have started off this way and there have been much worst patterns

 

Subjective memory...it's been a while, but I was thinking about more than just December...primarily into January.  It is possible that 79-80 was the winter I was recalling, although I thought that it was earlier than that.

[SnoSki14]

Maybe the NAO will head more negative in mid December?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

[NorthShoreWx]

you know 77-78 did not start off that great..very little winter weather until mid January..Christmas day was in the 50's..and why 74-75?..lol many December's have started off this way and there have been much worst patterns

True enough about 77-78 (total snowfall in NE Nassau through 1/13 was about 8"), although I believe it was cold in December and early January and none of the months was snowless (including November 77).

 

Here is the daily snowfall for Syosset in 1978:

 

http://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/SyossetDailySnowfall1978.pdf

 

Here is the annual summary for Syosset for 74 - 85:

 

http://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/SyossetSnowfall1974-1985.pdf

 

I'm not attempting to forecast this winter.  I have no confidence in any of the forecasts for this winter (warm or cold).  My gut tells me that however it turns out, it won't necessarily play by the rules... maybe a complex set of competing drivers as the winter moves on (attempts at analogs may be apples to oranges).  Think of the unexpectedly heavy snows that occurred with the early pattern in 2010-11.  But that doesn't mean I think this winter will be snowy...it just means I think most will have a hard time with LR forecasting for this winter; even harder than usual.

[Isotherm]

We usually end up finishing Decembers with a -EPO gradient pattern on the warmer side of normal. 

 

NYC December departures and snowfall

 

2008....+0.8.....6.0"

1992....+1.7.....0.4"

1984...+7.6......5.5"

1983...-1.0....1.6"

1972...+2.6....T

1971...+4.1....T

1964...+0.5...3.1"

1951...+3.8...3.3"

 

500.png

 

temp.png

 

 

 

Agree. Negative EPO winters tend to have their coldest period come either in January or February. 3 of my 4 winter outlook analogs had January as the coldest month (1984, 2009, 2005) and 1 was February (1993).

 

This month's departures will depend upon how much cold can press into the Northeast and beat down the SE ridge for transient periods.