Weathergun Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 The Euro ensemble mean doesn't support the cutter between 192hr-216hr. So it's not as intense with arctic blast over the East at 240hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 weathergun, I almost want the cutter, the Day 10 EURO looks like it would get cold, and maybe we'd get some ridging in the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 November was cold NYC -2.5 Lga -2.8 Jfk -2.2 Ewr -2.5 Bdr -1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 November was cold NYC -2.5 Lga -2.8 Jfk -2.2 Ewr -2.5 Bdr -1.9 Looks like gfs and euro supporting cold/snow with pressing cold front and multiple waves riding up on boundary. Euro has 6"+ from 95 nw over next 10 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 November was cold NYC -2.5 Lga -2.8 Jfk -2.2 Ewr -2.5 Bdr -1.9 Nov. was -2.7 here and 6th coldest past 35 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 There looks to be waves of low pressure riding the front next week. Hopefully the cold presses a little more further south than what the models show so we can see some wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 November was cold NYC -2.5 Lga -2.8 Jfk -2.2 Ewr -2.5 Bdr -1.9 Left one out. This is one example why we should consider our own sub forum. ISP -1.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Left one out. This is one example why we should consider our own sub forum. ISP -1.7 Agree Nice day setting up. Hoping we can clear a bit before the front passes by the end of the week so we can torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Left one out. This is one example why we should consider our own sub forum. ISP -1.7 I agree consideration should be given. Whether it's being left out of obs or our own unique climate and geography, we sometimes are not part of NYC metro nor do we belong to New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Left one out. This is one example why we should consider our own sub forum. ISP -1.7 Maybe I'm not as much of a renegade as I thought.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Maybe I'm not as much of a renegade as I thought.. Don't sell yourself short, judge. You're a tremendous renegade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Don't sell yourself short, judge. You're a tremendous renegade. Smithtown will have no snow...and like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Pretty dense fog for the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 DT just said on Facebook that Accuweather is going to change their winter outlook today or tomorrow. If at first you don't succeed....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 DT just said on Facebook that Accuweather is going to change their winter outlook today or tomorrow. If at first you don't succeed....... Pastelok posted this AM, they missed the EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It looks like the PV is on our side, which helps greatly if that holds. It could mute any major warm ups during what is hopefully a transient +EPO state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Seems today's 12Z GFS OP has raised the temps. near the 14th. by 25 degrees from yesterday's run. SE ridge wins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Seems today's 12Z GFS OP has raised the temps. near the 14th. by 25 degrees from yesterday's run. SE ridge wins? Always that risk when there is no block in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That huge -EPO ridge continues to dominate the pattern until further notice. Those are the warmest waters south of Alaska under that ridge that we have seen this time of year. That warm pool looks like the red spot on Jupiter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I have posted a topic of some interest to anyone who likes snow in the main forum, regarding the new NWS snow measurement guide: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41853-new-nws-snow-measurement-guide/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Always that risk when there is no block in place. If you're staying up to date on all the guidance, the models have almost ALL become drasticallly warmer than they had been for the next ten days. Not only that, you can see on the maps how there is virtually no blocking and I think we're about to lose the PNA. Put that all together and I think it may be difficult to get snow on the ground here anytime soon! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 If you're staying up to date on all the guidance, the models have almost ALL become drasticallly warmer than they had been for the next ten days. Not only that, you can see on the maps how there is virtually no blocking and I think we're about to lose the PNA. Put that all together and I think it may be difficult to get snow on the ground here anytime soon! WX/PT What a downer. I hope we can get some snow this month at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 This week is going to be warm but after this week, temps are going to nosedive. The euro and gfs show really cold air coming into the us next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 If you're staying up to date on all the guidance, the models have almost ALL become drasticallly warmer than they had been for the next ten days. Not only that, you can see on the maps how there is virtually no blocking and I think we're about to lose the PNA. Put that all together and I think it may be difficult to get snow on the ground here anytime soon! WX/PT One favorable GFS run and you will likely be back on board... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Today's CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks have high probabilities of below normal temps & above normal precip in this area from December 8 - December 16...not saying it insures some snow...but the chance is certainly there...those guys are pretty sharp forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 If you're staying up to date on all the guidance, the models have almost ALL become drasticallly warmer than they had been for the next ten days. WX/PT It is a well known GFS bias to over-exaggerate cold in the long range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Always that risk when there is no block in place. If you're staying up to date on all the guidance, the models have almost ALL become drasticallly warmer than they had been for the next ten days. Not only that, you can see on the maps how there is virtually no blocking and I think we're about to lose the PNA. Put that all together and I think it may be difficult to get snow on the ground here anytime soon! WX/PT As long as the -epo stays in place (think cold outbreaks) we will be ok and there will be chances. The epo will trump most other indices such as the PNA or NAO. This is evident by the most recent of cold snaps just last week. With that said, I respectfully disagree with your assessment and add that most will have seen measurable snowfall by the middle of the month prior to a slight relax/reload of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Meh on those hitting the warmth hard. May be transient as there will be record cold in the plains. Will hopefully bleed into our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We have an developing strong -PNA and a +NAO, while the EPO is negative once we loose that (and we will) I expect a pretty big torch for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We have an developing strong -PNA and a +NAO, while the EPO is negative once we loose that (and we will) I expect a pretty big torch for the area. You see absolutely nothing that can offset that? The cold will be so close by I don't think anyone can call for a big torch right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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