jm1220 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The 12z UKMET even with a further offshore track has 2m temps above freezing for just about the entire northeastern US This might be okay for the mountains of VT/NH especially as the low is leaving, but it's a horrible waste of a storm because of the low to the north of it engulfing the Northeast in marginal cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Latest SREF's are a tick further NW again and a tick juicier. Track is basically right over Sandy Hook and over eastern Long Island. Would think eastern areas probably get dry slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 The NAM is coming in super amped and robust, even more so than it's 12z run. Surface low tracking near DC at hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Hour 54 sub 996mb surface low passing directly over NYC, possibly even a bit more inland than that. Extremely heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Hr 57 sub 992mb low right over Boston, big time paste job for northern VT and NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 1.5"+ all areas. The negatively tilted vort max passes nearly directly over the area. Would imagine some areas see well over 2.0" of rain given the intensity. It's probably overdone, but I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Any further NW and NYC and Long Island will almost be dry slotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Also pretty substantial wind threat on the 18z NAM for Long Island and coastal sections in particular. Surface temps are in the low to mid 50's for a majority of the region. 40's NW and 30's more than 50 miles NW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Also pretty substantial wind threat on the 18z NAM for Long Island and coastal sections in particular. Surface temps are in the low to mid 50's for a majority of the region. 40's NW and 30's more than 50 miles NW of NYC. as long as there is action that is fine with me. nothing more boring then 20's and sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Local mets up here hinting that could be all snow at highest elevations (per the NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Local mets up here hinting that could be all snow at highest elevations (per the NAM) I can see precip type being determined by intensity up this way but look for this to be a mostly rain event. Maybe a few slushy inches in areas > 1500'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looks like Upton is starting to change their tune about tomorrow evening for the interior. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND HOW ISOTHERMAL THETEMPERATURE PROFILE BECOMES AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...FOR THE INTERIORAREAS. IF TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH WITH AN ISOTHERMAL PROFILEAROUND 00-03Z...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH COULDACCUMULATE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY AND HIGHERELEVATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well, 1,604 feet elevation here...Hoping we get a 2-4 inch blanket of white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looks like Upton is starting to change their tune about tomorrow evening for the interior. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND HOW ISOTHERMAL THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE BECOMES AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS. IF TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH WITH AN ISOTHERMAL PROFILE AROUND 00-03Z...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH COULD ACCUMULATE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN ORANGE COUNTY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. Looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Another overperforming day in terms of high temps. Supposed to be around 50, already low to mid 50s in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Looks good to me Yeah I agree.. If anyone was gonna see anything from this you had to be a good deal away from the coast as well > 500'.. Areas in the Catskills above 2000' should get a nice paste job though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 If I get 4 inches here in Liberty at 1,600 feet with the majority frozen I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well, 1,604 feet elevation here...Hoping we get a 2-4 inch blanket of white. The column looks to go isothermal for a while as the low pulls away. You could have a few bands that produce for you at the end, but I wouldn't expect more than a couple or few inches. And if the precip is lighter, it could fall as a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Snow mixing in with the rain here in Liberty NY at 1,600 feet in elevation and 33.6 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 ended up with 1.5" since rain started just before noon. a nice steady all day rain. temp spiked up to 53 as well. 51 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 .83" of precip on the day... High of 37 Currently 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like EWR will finish at +0.4, NYC +1.0 Could add a tenth or two to the snow bucket if those snow showers do anything this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Light snow showers currently falling around the Edison area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Judging by the radar, it looks like more is developing out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Judging by the radar, it looks like more is developing out west. Yeah looks decent. Snow showers commencing here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like we could coat the ground! Nice treat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This plume of snow means business. Flakes are pretty big too, and it's coming down nicely in Hunterdon County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Flurries here. My brother in Kutztown got a 1/2" out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 a few flakes flying in the air here in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 some flakes here now... the Christmas Eve event missed my area...radar looks like I could get a dusting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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