SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The 18z NAM is an inch plus for the coast and 0.75"+ for everyone else. It's such a fast mover, otherwise this would have been a QPF bomb. As modeled now assuming we do not see a major closing off of the system which would be tough the QPF will verify way lower than most of these runs currently show, thats one of the most important rules of forecasting with a fast moving system, models usually do not catch onto the reduced QPF due to fast movement til inside 36-48 hours...sometimes even less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Nobody in NJ will see a flake from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 As modeled now assuming we do not see a major closing off of the system which would be tough the QPF will verify way lower than most of these runs currently show, thats one of the most important rules of forecasting with a fast moving system, models usually do not catch onto the reduced QPF due to fast movement til inside 36-48 hours...sometimes even less.Agreed, Looks like some late, sloppy phasing down south. Northern stream acting as a bit of a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Think Liberty NY at 1600 ft elevation in Sullivan County's Catskills might eek out a WSW for Sunday into Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 In October and November Isotherm and I went back and forth saying our biggest concern for this entire winter was that we would have a good amount of cold air but no mechanism to keep it in place when it mattered. Here we are. Yeah this weekend event is probably going to be a rough one. The southern and northern streams are disjointed so the STJ vort basically needs to manufacture its own cold by rapid intensification. It needs to take a perfect track SE of us and become stronger than currently progged to the pull the sub 0c mid level cold into the storm system. If there's too much northern stream interaction, it'll trend colder in the mid level but also too far west (Coastal hugger) for us to benefit. Without a 50/50 low it's really threading a needle. Beyond that, the pattern vastly improves, and the January 3rd threat is quite real IMO, especially if we can get some MJO forcing into p8-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 They didn't lose it, it's still there. In fact the energy is digging all the way down to the Gulf Shores. But there is no amplification on the west coast and no blocking to slow down the progressive pattern. So it swings out to sea.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f108.gif John , I guess I will jump off the board , I just had my last 2 posts deleted one on the Jan thread of a 120hr Euro Ensemble and the 2nd was my thoughts on the Euro in the NW suburbs on the Sun system , I am always courteous , and non of the posts were anything other than maps and my opinion . If someone disagrees with me that's always ok , I don't think it should rise to the level of deleting what I think could happen , thought my stuff added value . I`m surprised that's going on here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 They didn't lose it, it's still there. In fact the energy is digging all the way down to the Gulf Shores. But there is no amplification on the west coast and no blocking to slow down the progressive pattern. So it swings out to sea.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f108.gif John , I guess I will jump off the board , I just had my last 2 posts deleted one on the Jan thread of a 120hr Euro Ensemble and the 2nd was my thoughts on the Euro in the NW suburbs on the Sun system , I am always courteous , and non of the posts were anything other than maps and my opinion . If someone disagrees with me that's always ok , I don't think it should rise to the level of deleting what I think could happen , thought my stuff added value . I`m surprised that's going on here . You can't post paid Euro images here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 You can't post paid Euro images here. I am friends with JB , if u read his stuff im Paul from colts neck , he refers to me as the Monmouth County Monster , its an MMA thing he loves his stuff posted here . ping me at work and I will have him reach out to u . unless the board doesn't like it then ok but WB loves there stuff here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 You can't post paid Euro images here. I am friends with JB , if u read his stuff im Paul from colts neck , he refers to me as the Monmouth County Monster , its an MMA thing he loves his stuff posted here . ping me at work and I will have him reach out to u . unless the board doesn't like it then ok but WB loves there stuff here Nothing personal we just have a rule against posting Euro images since ECMWF has contacted us about it on numerous occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Nothing personal we just have a rule against posting Euro images since ECMWF has contacted us about it on numerous occasions. wasn`t aware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 18z GFS coming in a bit stronger with everything as compared to the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 Hour 72 has a low inland over NC/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 Hour 75 low over Ocean City, MD, right along the coast, sub 1000mb. Heavy rain for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 Hr 78 low tucked right into the coast. Area getting hammered by heavy rain. Hour 81, passing inside the benchmark. Hour 84 wrapping up, lots of wrap around moisture. Sullivan and northern Orange Counties might end with some slush. 1-2" of rain for everyone. It looked almost like it wanted to close off at hour 78, and it might have but a little hard to tell with my maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 At 3500 feet in southern Vermont this has got to be all snow! I already spent serious cash for 5 days at mt snow. I have a scary feeling I might have been better off going way north up to Stowe where they didn't have the grinch meltdown they did in southern ne. Anything is better then wantagh this winter as we missed the Xmas ever squall and no even a flurries today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Good sign from the NAM tonight at 84 hours with regards to the possible NYE system, its quite amplified over AR/TN/MS...definitely better than seeing it come in flat as a pancake, without a doubt that event still has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Good sign from the NAM tonight at 84 hours with regards to the possible NYE system, its quite amplified over AR/TN/MS...definitely better than seeing it come in flat as a pancake, without a doubt that event still has a chance. Are you talking about the Sunday/ Monday event? If so, does this bode well for the Catskills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 09z SREF's holding serve QPF wise, 1"+ area wide. A little less far NW, a bit more towards Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 The 12z NAM is well NW of it's 06z run. Nearly passes the center of JFK. Very heavy rain all sections hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 The entire system is in and out in less than 12 hours on the NAM. 1.25"+ from KMMU south and east 1.00"+ NW of I-287 0.75"+ western Poconos and Sullivan County 1.50"+ south of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 If you love big rainstorms like I do, the 12z 4k NAM panels from hours 54-60 are pants-tent quality. PWAT's get close to 1.5" in NYC, and we would probably have some flash flooding issues as a widespread inch+ falls in about 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 The 12z Euro ends as some very wet snow far NW sections. Sub 1000mb low just east of ACY at hour 60. Not quite as tucked into the coast as the NAM or the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The 12z Euro ends as some very wet snow far NW sections. Sub 1000mb low just east of ACY at hour 60. Not quite as tucked into the coast as the NAM or the GFS. I hate to do it but YanksFan27, on 26 Dec 2013 - 3:46 PM, said: Nobody in NJ will see a flake from this storm. Perhaps now you'll see what people are talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I hate to do it but YanksFan27, on 26 Dec 2013 - 3:46 PM, said: Perhaps now you'll see what people are talking about? What's wrong with this? He was giving his opinion based on the model data at the time. Models change = opinion change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 I hate to do it but YanksFan27, on 26 Dec 2013 - 3:46 PM, said: Perhaps now you'll see what people are talking about? Just reporting what the model shows since not everyone has Euro access. The Euro is the most southeast and coldest model of all the 12z Guidance thus far, except for the UKMET which actually has nearly an identical track. And I should clarify, the wet snow would most likely be restricted to the Poconos and Sullivan County. 12z UKMET positioning - I know the UKMET has a known bias for being too far east with coastals but IDK if that applies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 What's wrong with this? He was giving his opinion based on the model data at the time. Models change = opinion change. Because he was arguing no snow unequivocally.. He didn't indicate it was based on one run of one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 The 12z UKMET even with a further offshore track has 2m temps above freezing for just about the entire northeastern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 Because he was arguing no snow unequivocally.. He didn't indicate it was based on one run of one model. Nobody in NJ is going to see snow with this storm. Despite the fact that 850's are below zero for a brief period, the surface is in the mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The line where the could end as snow from the original idea. Was in a line from Sparta NJ thru 84 in the lower Hudson Valley into northern CT. Once that center is east in those high grounds there winds r west and they r 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I expect a mix here in Sullivan County (1600 feet elevation)to begin early in the AM Sunday transitioning to all rain until evening then some backend snows with perhaps a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.