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December Discussion Thread

IsentropicLift

By IsentropicLift,
in New York City Metro

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

post-342-0-75852300-1385691306_thumb.gif

 

Pretty much fantasy!

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted

We need to have a storm eject at the same time that an Arctic high is supplying cold air down into the area during a -EPO/+NAO.

 

12/19/08

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2008/12/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

attachicon.gif500.gif

 

attachicon.gif121921.png

 

That was a nice storm here, although 50 miles east of KNYC we did get an hour or two of drizzle/rain before it cooled off again.  What was most interesting was a gravity wave that passed this area around 7PM.  Check out the obs down at ISP from that day...big winds for an SWFE:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kisp/2008/12/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

Especially sweet was the un-forecasted bonus snows the next day.  IMBY total 7.5"

 

20081219-204ces.jpg

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

 

Eventually we'll get chances but it won't be before the 12th-15th I think, I posted in the main fourm today how eerily similar the evolution over the next 10-14 days is very similar to how we finally snapped our pattern in January last winter, it took about 7-10 days for the trough to make it from the Plains to clear the East Coast, it was even about 2-3 days from it to go from say Nashville to Raleigh...soon after we had the big February storm.  I think 12/15-12/30 we seem some sort of storm, thereafter I would not be shocked to see the pattern go mild for most of the U.S. for a week or two to start January because we still would technically be due for a pattern change, what we're about to get is not a real change more, just a re-organization of the AK ridge temporarily a bit further west.  I think the AK ridge will breakdown for a time this winter but it won't be for very long with those warm SSTs in the GOA.

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Metsfan

Metsfan

Posted
Posted

Great signal from both the 0z euro and gfs with the developing -nao and -epo. The euro is a little more robust with the blocking. The euro even develops positive anomalies around the pole which is key for cross polar flow from the west coast to the east coast.

 

test8.gif

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

 I cant post it but last nites Euro weeklies Day 5- 32, 2m temps shows us 2 below through the period .

It only sees a 1 week break but the entire month is below .

 

It's tough to get a sustained warm up as long as the EPO remains negative and North America remains cold.

The skill on the weeklies really falls off week 3 and 4. The only way we would get milder later in the month

for a time is if there was a retrograde of the Alaskan Ridge back to Asia. I would like to see that in a 6-10 day

prog first before believing it.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

It's tough to get a sustained warm up as long as the EPO remains negative and North America remains cold.

Agreed the breaks from below normal should  be 3 - 4 day not 1 to 2 week periods like some of  the past Decembers .

At some point I would like to get some help on the Atlantic side

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Agreed the breaks from below normal should  be 3 - 4 day not 1 to 2 week periods like some of  the past Decembers .

At some point I would like to get some help on the Atlantic side

 

Yeah, the trouble with the Atlantic is that all the blocking since 4-15 has generally been transient as the PV has really been dominating.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

According to mets in the northeast forum, post mid month could be dicey. Hints of a potential prolonged warm up maybe.

Figures as soon as people throw I'm the towel and go cold. Signs of a warmup mid month start to appear lol

Hopefully some chances before then

If they are basing it on the day 10 GFS and beyond , I would be cautious . The GFS loves to warm any cold air mass . The EPO is strong and as long as its there , the COLD wins. IMO .

I don't see the argument about the Euro ensembles , for 1 they don't look warm and the 0z Control run this morning out to 15 days looked ok , The 12z Control  is out at 5pm so its worth a look  . But

last nites Euro weeklies for the next 32 days looked 2 below in the northeast.

Counterpoint , is there is a ridge in the SE , and since  the trough is so far off the West coast it could offer some resistance up here , but so far the next 10 days on 12z euro operational goes it

looks 5 days of  below ,  3 days of above , 2 days of  normal. Don't think anyone thinks the Cold overwhelms but its likely not to torch with all that NW flow .

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

If they are basing it on the day 10 GFS and beyond , I would be cautious . The GFS loves to warm any cold air mass . The EPO is strong and as long as its there , the COLD wins. IMO .

I don't see the argument about the Euro ensembles , for 1 they don't look warm and the 0z Control run this morning out to 15 days looked ok , The 12z Control  is out at 5pm so its worth a look  . But

last nites Euro weeklies for the next 32 days looked 2 below in the northeast.

Counterpoint , is there is a ridge in the SE , and since  the trough is so far off the West coast it could offer some resistance up here , but so far the next 10 days on 12z euro operational goes it

looks 5 days of  below ,  3 days of above , 2 days of  normal. Don't think anyone thinks the Cold overwhelms but its likely not to torch with all that NW flow .

They are referring to the ECM ensembles and you can see for the most part that even the ECM op is not the prettiest of pictures with a strong SE ridge and the cold front never making it here thru Day 10...Pretty much a gradient pattern setting up and what side the area is on will determine the sensible weather impacts...

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

They are referring to the ECM ensembles and you can see for the most part that even the ECM op is not the prettiest of pictures with a strong SE ridge and the cold front never making it here thru Day 10...Pretty much a gradient pattern setting up and what side the area is on will determine the sensible weather impacts...

Sure , I don't disagree with a gradient pattern ,and yes it would be nice to have it at the mason Dixon line and not 40 N . My point is that's not a torch, of the 10 days in front of you its  5 below 3 above 2 normal - sure I see day 10 OP Where the 850`s kind of get hung up but  im just not sure if that leads to his point of mid month prolonged  warmth .

All the models go to the SE ridge , but they are all on board with a Neg EPO and Neg WPO  .Level cold air out of the snow covered  Canada prairies is vastly different then polar pacific air which tends

to warm faster .and that could be the GFS error after day 10 . So where I  maybe minus 1 for the month - my bigger angst is the Atlantic side , theres a ton of cold air very close by  the main problem is going to be to have stick when we need it to .

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Euro ens are trending zonal for mid month world be above normal for us

Yes at day 12 it really lowers heights in the Gulf of Alaska so by day 14 it's showing pacific air flying east accross the area

It disagrees with its own week 2 and 3 weeklies just issued last nite which showed the neg WPO hanging on

One of the euros are wrong

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Neblizzard

Neblizzard

Posted
Posted

That's an impressive dump of cold air for the nation

That is quite a powerful -EPO ridge with some impressive arctic air bleeding south into the US. Problem is the Atlantic looks absolutely atrocious. If we lose that favorable Pacific, the entire US will torch. Let's hope we can get a blocking pattern established in the Atlantic. If that was the case and it hooked up with that -EPO ridge, all hell would probably break lose. Yesterday's EURO ensembles hinted at the atlantic becoming favorable, but I think it's fair to say the majority of Dec will feature a +NAO.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Euro looks pretty warm to me zonal flow

Day 13 14 15 average minus 7 C on 12z euro ensembles .

That said those high heights in Alaska probably break down a bit mid month. The EPO and WPO are forecasted to Neutral by day 15

So the second half of the month we may moderate , but by that time we will have been below normal for 6 weeks .

Then we hope we can get some help on the Atlantic side goin into Jan.

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