December Discussion Thread

[jm1220]

What a waste of what appears to be a nice track.

Look at the primary low well north of it and the sea of warm air it drags in with it. That's your answer right there.

[PB GFI]

Both the 12z GFS and 12z Euro lost the New Years eve clipper

[earthlight]

Question for you john that indirectly has something to do with this coastal storm. Next month when we're in the ice box ( intensity to be determined ) and the cold air is not stale, correct me if im wrong but with no blocking or little at best wouldnt solutions like this still occur if there is nothing to beat down the SE ridge or lock the cold air in during coastal storms? I know our airmass is stale currently which is why it is a rainstorm for most but wouldnt a wound up coastal low still allow for some mixing along the coast even with a cold airmass in place and nothing to lock in good CAD? This has more to do with not expecting big snows next month as well until atleast sustainable blocking west-based preferably does occur

 

If there were more blocking currently, this system would be completely different. Much would obviously depend on the degree of the blocking and the positioning of individual nuances, but I can tell you that the initial/primary low would not be driving into the Great Lakes. So we would probably have enough cold air in place so that the secondary development off the coast could produce some frozen precipitation. Our airmass is stale because of the fact that the southwesterly flow in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere is so free to roam northward.

 

Down the road, models are hinting at a better positioned PV...but still no favorable high latitude blocking. This can still work out in our favor, though, as having the PV oriented as modeled is another way to keep consistent cold air to our north. So we can get northern stream energy to swing southward around it and amplify off the coast. Any big time southern stream amplification that involves phasing or anything of the sort, and we'll still likely have to have good timing and positioning of major features..or else the coastal low being close enough to the coast to provide a big CCB would mean warm air intrusion.

[earthlight]

Both the 12z GFS and 12z Euro lost the New Years eve clipper

 

They didn't lose it, it's still there. In fact the energy is digging all the way down to the Gulf Shores. But there is no amplification on the west coast and no blocking to slow down the progressive pattern. So it swings out to sea..

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f108.gif

[ace0927]

But it doesn't show snow. And it doesn't seem to be creating its own cold air.

 

We toss.

 

I was around in the 80's....this winter is a carbon copy of some of those winners. There will no denying the cold this winter...snow, is another situation...I have a feeling that there are going to be a lot of people who questions how is it possible to be cold for so much of the time and get little snow.

A lot of people have been very spoiled in the NYC area over the past 15 years. For the first 20 years of my life all we had was 1978 and 1983....

[JSantanaNYC]

What a waste of a storm. It really hurts to see such situation. 33-34f. But rain still.

[earthlight]

I was around in the 80's....this winter is a carbon copy of some of those winners. There will no denying the cold this winter...snow, is another situation...I have a feeling that there are going to be a lot of people who questions how is it possible to be cold for so much of the time and get little snow.

A lot of people have been very spoiled in the NYC area over the past 15 years. For the first 20 years of my life all we had was 1978 and 1983....

 

In October and November Isotherm and I went back and forth saying our biggest concern for this entire winter was that we would have a good amount of cold air but no mechanism to keep it in place when it mattered. Here we are.

[PB GFI]

They didn't lose it, it's still there. In fact the energy is digging all the way down to the Gulf Shores. But there is no amplification on the west coast and no blocking to slow down the progressive pattern. So it swings out to sea..

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f108.gif

Yeh , Was gona amend  looks it follows Monday system south and east  

[jdt]

Looks to be a close call for NW NJ and interior SE NY. Could easily be one of those events where temps crash quickly enough to switch NW areas to a wet snow at some point. Though the quick movement of the system could also mean some or all of the NW areas see the precip ending as or before the temps crash thus any snow that occurs would be minor. Precip rates will play a role too as to how quickly a switch to snow may occur. Areas to the N&W of about I-80 & I-287 will have to watch for this. Looks ~50/50 to me as of now as to if any snow gets involved in my neck of the woods. If snow where to get involved I suspect any accumulations to remain mainly in the advisory range due to quick movement and some percentage falling as rain.

[ace0927]

They didn't lose it, it's still there. In fact the energy is digging all the way down to the Gulf Shores. But there is no amplification on the west coast and no blocking to slow down the progressive pattern. So it swings out to sea..

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f108.gif

as i mentioned yesterday - look at how compressed the height lines are....576dcm down south and  504dcm at the Canadian border....

[ace0927]

In October and November Isotherm and I went back and forth saying our biggest concern for this entire winter was that we would have a good amount of cold air but no mechanism to keep it in place when it mattered. Here we are.

 

 

John - was 1970-71 an analog for this winter?

[forkyfork]

the atlantic stinks.  this isn't a tough forecast IMO

[REDMK6GLI]

If there were more blocking currently, this system would be completely different. Much would obviously depend on the degree of the blocking and the positioning of individual nuances, but I can tell you that the initial/primary low would not be driving into the Great Lakes. So we would probably have enough cold air in place so that the secondary development off the coast could produce some frozen precipitation. Our airmass is stale because of the fact that the southwesterly flow in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere is so free to roam northward.

Down the road, models are hinting at a better positioned PV...but still no favorable high latitude blocking. This can still work out in our favor, though, as having the PV oriented as modeled is another way to keep consistent cold air to our north. So we can get northern stream energy to swing southward around it and amplify off the coast. Any big time southern stream amplification that involves phasing or anything of the sort, and we'll still likely have to have good timing and positioning of major features..or else the coastal low being close enough to the coast to provide a big CCB would mean warm air intrusion.

Thanks for the clarification. The pattern going forward we can see will feature some cold anomolies, now we just need some of the upper level features/ nuances like you said to get some cooperation

[Hailstorm]

John - was 1970-71 an analog for this winter?

If anything, this winter reminds me of 1912-13 with how January is shaping up on the models. I wouldn't want to experience such a winter again. How fitting for a centennial anniversary.  

[ace0927]

If anything, this winter reminds me of 1912-13 with how January is shaping up on the models.

of course, how could forget that winter....remember it like the back of my hand.

[ace0927]

John - was 1970-71 an analog for this winter?

 

what about 1987-88?

[dbc]

Don't care where the surface freezing line is showing up on the Euro for the location I was referring to in the Poconos, if it is precipitating during this time frame that would be snow in the location I'll be at in Gouldsboro, PA. I know it's microclimate and that's accumulating snow in that region.

[IsentropicLift]

15z SREF's are a tick wetter and NW of 09z. 

[SnowGoose69]

They didn't lose it, it's still there. In fact the energy is digging all the way down to the Gulf Shores. But there is no amplification on the west coast and no blocking to slow down the progressive pattern. So it swings out to sea..

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/f108.gif

 

More than anything I think the storm on the 29th screws the next one, it basically pulls the trof and subsequent arctic airmass behind it way down south and east and hence the 2nd event is just an unphased overrunning snow for the deep South and lower MA

[+SNfreak21]

With the PV over Eastern Canada, clippers and nickel and dime events (like the 12/10 and 12/17, and 1/25/13, Jan 2009 events) are the most probable ways to get snow for our area, these small events seem to come out of nowhere on the models, we could sneak a 1-3", 2-4" event, and we get a really amplified clipper coming from the Great Lakes (like 1/22/05) if we are lucky

[IsentropicLift]

18z NAM has the low closed off at 500mb over the northern gulf at hour 54.

[SnowGoose69]

18z NAM has the low closed off at 500mb over the northern gulf at hour 54.

 

The funny thing is for anyone who wants snow anywhere SE of the Catskills or Poconos, thats exactly what they're going to need to happen, this sucker to take a track similar to the Euro and close off, even if its briefly off the coast and there would be a chance of snow occurring further SE than those areas.

[IsentropicLift]

At hour 72 on the NAM the surface and 850 freezing lines are north of Toronto with precip on the doorstep.

[IsentropicLift]

Hour 75 is a nice low tucked right over Ocean City, MD. Moderate rain up to I-80.

[IsentropicLift]

Hour 78 moderate to heavy rain for everyone. The freezing lines are near PIttsburgh to the west and north of Toronto.

 

Hour 81 is a sub 1000mb low over the twin forks. Hour 84 sub 996mb low east of Cape Cod.

[Brian5671]

upton only has a 30% chance of rain for Sunday/Monday yet models show .50-1.00 inch of QPF?

[IsentropicLift]

upton only has a 30% chance of rain for Sunday/Monday yet models show .50-1.00 inch of QPF?

The 18z NAM is an inch plus for the coast and 0.75"+ for everyone else. It's such a fast mover, otherwise this would have been a QPF bomb.

[PB GFI]

12z Euro is 100 miles East of the 18z NAM , Hence the difference in temps and precip type for NWNJ and the lower Hudson Valley .......

[IsentropicLift]

12z Euro is 100 miles East of the 18z NAM , Hence the difference in temps and precip type for NWNJ and the lower Hudson Valley .......

Nobody in NJ will see a flake from this storm.

[Brian5671]

Nobody in NJ will see a flake from this storm.

agree....just no cold air anywhere...and not strong enough to pull anything in from up north.