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December Discussion Thread


IsentropicLift

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Are people really debating whether the 30th storm will be frozen? It's very obvious that it won't even be close unless you're far, far to the N&W or in very high elevations. The gfs looks good for CNE though.

 

Not saying it's not worth tracking though because a storm is a storm no matter what the precip type. The gfs shows plenty of potential after New Year's though and it's bitterly cold for many. 

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Are people really debating whether the 30th storm will be frozen? It's very obvious that it won't even be close unless you're far, far to the N&W or in very high elevations. The gfs looks good for CNE though.

I rest my case. Last I looked where I have been saying I will be in the Poconos during this storm has quite a high elevation and is indeed to the very far N & W.

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OLD DATA ? its the 0z run   the GFS is colder at 12z than its 6z ,   the 12z GFS stepped to the euro - look at where the center is

you are a day late - , the argument WAS and IS its not rain NW , you are really bad at this stuff

Old data or not, you have one model and one model only supporting your theory. When a low tracks near Cape May you're not going to get frozen anywhere near or over Cape May very rarely are you going to get snow, even in the Poconos.

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The difference of opinion between John and I yesterday was only about NWNJ

lower Hudson Valley on into NCT

 

Its always been rain for eveyone else . there are people on this board nw 80 and 287 up towards

84, they matter , We know its  NOT gona snow south and east of there but the that doesnt mean

u ignore the threat in those areas

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I rest my case. Last I looked where I have been saying I will be in the Poconos during this storm has quite a high elevation and is indeed to the very far N & W.

You might still rain... It's not just a classic elevation storm because 850s have to crash too. There's tons of ridging ahead of the Plains trough so the mid level flow is out of the southwest.
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Old data or not, you have one model and one model only supporting your theory. When a low tracks near Cape May you're not going to get frozen anywhere near or over Cape May very rarely are you going to get snow, even in the Poconos.

 

Yesterdays 12z Euro , last nites 0z Euro supported that idea  and now the 12z GFS is east of it s own 6z 

your only support is  now trending East since yesterday    They are all colder 287 and 80 N thru 84 .

Thats the battle not NYC , Ramsey or Colts Neck ,

Stop for a second a look at the MET in all of this for those areas - models aside

system off hatteras at 1005 in 18 hours its E of the BM AT 990 - The low is closed

850`s are minus 1 - the surface is 32- on a west wind  NW only now - what do u think should fall

 

The GFS is now plus 1 there and 34- it was much warmer yesterday

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You have an amped up southern stream wave, no high to the north, no high latitude blocking, no 50/50 low and little to no cold air anywhere to work with. Frankly an inland wrapped up low like what the 12z GGEM shows makes perfect sense.

 

P6_GZ_D5_PN_084_0000.gif

 

This the furthest west solution with its SLP   The Euro is at the BM   THERES THE DIFFERNCE  

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This the furthest west solution with its SLP   The Euro is at the BM   THERES THE DIFFERNCE  

Even with a Euro track you would need to be almost 100 miles NW of NYC to see anything that even resembles wintry weather. You have no cold air source. If we had a stronger high to the north it would probably bring with it a bigger ice threat than anything else. With that SW to NE low track you have WAA and the 850's are going to warm.

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I didn't attack you. Let's try to keep this thread on topic. Thanks.

Saying I shouldn't be allowed to post here is not attacking me? Interesting.

 

Fair enough though I will stay on topic. PB GFI is making all the same points I would to support why I think it will be snow where I'll be. nzucker makes a good point about this not being just elevation dependent. Is it possible we start with rain until 850's crash, definitely. Based on guidance at this point despite the 12z GGEM and GFS, I still believe the 850's will crash where I'll be and we will be plenty cold to support snow in a region that is highly elevated and always colder than most of the region. It could be just a couple of inches but I never said it would be anything more than that anyway.

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Even with a Euro track you would need to be almost 100 miles NW of NYC to see anything that even resembles wintry weather. You have no cold air source. If we had a stronger high to the north it would probably bring with it a bigger ice threat than anything else. With that SW to NE low track you have WAA and the 850's are going to warm.

Yes inland , not a shot for u or I ,  but get to Sparta NJ thru 84 thru  N central CT  , I thnk its frozen

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Saying I shouldn't be allowed to post here is not attacking me? Interesting.

 

Fair enough though I will stay on topic. PB GFI is making all the same points I would to support why I think it will be snow where I'll be. nzucker makes a good point about this not being just elevation dependent. Is it possible we start with rain until 850's crash, definitely. Based on guidance at this point despite the 12z GGEM and GFS, I still believe the 850's will crash where I'll be and we will be plenty cold to support snow in a region that is highly elevated and always colder than most of the region.

Simply stating that a model is wrong and not giving any scientific or logical reasoning as to why isn't a good way to win an argument.

 

I just checked the GEFS mean, the freezing lines hang just NW of the Poconos.

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Simply stating that a model is wrong and not giving any scientific or logical reasoning as to why isn't a good way to win an argument.

 

I just checked the GEFS mean, the freezing lines hang just NW of the Poconos.

You are doing the same thing by discounting the 0z Euro. Hey the Euro at 12z may trend warmer but the 0z Euro is not a bogus depiction and is a viable solution. There's nothing I saw on the 0z Euro that made no meteorological sense or was absurd. Factor in the area's climate that I'll be at in the Poconos and calling for a couple inches of snow after we crash the 850's is not illogical reasoning.

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This was an obvious warm track for us even from back around the 20th. Notice how the 

GEFS did very well showing how there would be no Davis Strait block to prevent this from

being a rainstorm here.The SE Ridge usually makes a cameo as we get closer to showtime 

under these circumstances.

 

222 hr forecast

 

 

72 hr forecast

 

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12z GFS 5 day Jan 1- 6 says the area looks to be 10C below normal for the period .

Question is what will it translate into once the storms come around? That my friend is the million dollar question that most want to know. Pattern upcoming in my opinion supports minor-moderate events and storms that are going blow up and amplify with no blocking will flood the coastal plain and inland as well if no established blocking occurs to lock the cold air in and keep the SE ridge at bay enough.

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The Euro is very literally 33-35 F and rain for most people on this forum.

Question for you john that indirectly has something to do with this coastal storm. Next month when we're in the ice box ( intensity to be determined ) and the cold air is not stale, correct me if im wrong but with no blocking or little at best wouldnt solutions like this still occur if there is nothing to beat down the SE ridge or lock the cold air in during coastal storms? I know our airmass is stale currently which is why it is a rainstorm for most but wouldnt a wound up coastal low still allow for some mixing along the coast even with a cold airmass in place and nothing to lock in good CAD? This has more to do with not expecting big snows next month as well until atleast sustainable blocking west-based preferably does occur

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