SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Are people really debating whether the 30th storm will be frozen? It's very obvious that it won't even be close unless you're far, far to the N&W or in very high elevations. The gfs looks good for CNE though. Not saying it's not worth tracking though because a storm is a storm no matter what the precip type. The gfs shows plenty of potential after New Year's though and it's bitterly cold for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Are people really debating whether the 30th storm will be frozen? It's very obvious that it won't even be close unless you're far, far to the N&W or in very high elevations. The gfs looks good for CNE though. I rest my case. Last I looked where I have been saying I will be in the Poconos during this storm has quite a high elevation and is indeed to the very far N & W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 OLD DATA ? its the 0z run the GFS is colder at 12z than its 6z , the 12z GFS stepped to the euro - look at where the center is you are a day late - , the argument WAS and IS its not rain NW , you are really bad at this stuff Old data or not, you have one model and one model only supporting your theory. When a low tracks near Cape May you're not going to get frozen anywhere near or over Cape May very rarely are you going to get snow, even in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The difference of opinion between John and I yesterday was only about NWNJ lower Hudson Valley on into NCT Its always been rain for eveyone else . there are people on this board nw 80 and 287 up towards 84, they matter , We know its NOT gona snow south and east of there but the that doesnt mean u ignore the threat in those areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 You have an amped up southern stream wave, no high to the north, no high latitude blocking, no 50/50 low and little to no cold air anywhere to work with. Frankly an inland wrapped up low like what the 12z GGEM shows makes perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I rest my case. Last I looked where I have been saying I will be in the Poconos during this storm has quite a high elevation and is indeed to the very far N & W.You might still rain... It's not just a classic elevation storm because 850s have to crash too. There's tons of ridging ahead of the Plains trough so the mid level flow is out of the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Old data or not, you have one model and one model only supporting your theory. When a low tracks near Cape May you're not going to get frozen anywhere near or over Cape May very rarely are you going to get snow, even in the Poconos. Yesterdays 12z Euro , last nites 0z Euro supported that idea and now the 12z GFS is east of it s own 6z your only support is now trending East since yesterday They are all colder 287 and 80 N thru 84 . Thats the battle not NYC , Ramsey or Colts Neck , Stop for a second a look at the MET in all of this for those areas - models aside system off hatteras at 1005 in 18 hours its E of the BM AT 990 - The low is closed 850`s are minus 1 - the surface is 32- on a west wind NW only now - what do u think should fall The GFS is now plus 1 there and 34- it was much warmer yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 You have an amped up southern stream wave, no high to the north, no high latitude blocking, no 50/50 low and little to no cold air anywhere to work with. Frankly an inland wrapped up low like what the 12z GGEM shows makes perfect sense. This the furthest west solution with its SLP The Euro is at the BM THERES THE DIFFERNCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 This the furthest west solution with its SLP The Euro is at the BM THERES THE DIFFERNCE Even with a Euro track you would need to be almost 100 miles NW of NYC to see anything that even resembles wintry weather. You have no cold air source. If we had a stronger high to the north it would probably bring with it a bigger ice threat than anything else. With that SW to NE low track you have WAA and the 850's are going to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I didn't attack you. Let's try to keep this thread on topic. Thanks. Saying I shouldn't be allowed to post here is not attacking me? Interesting. Fair enough though I will stay on topic. PB GFI is making all the same points I would to support why I think it will be snow where I'll be. nzucker makes a good point about this not being just elevation dependent. Is it possible we start with rain until 850's crash, definitely. Based on guidance at this point despite the 12z GGEM and GFS, I still believe the 850's will crash where I'll be and we will be plenty cold to support snow in a region that is highly elevated and always colder than most of the region. It could be just a couple of inches but I never said it would be anything more than that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Even with a Euro track you would need to be almost 100 miles NW of NYC to see anything that even resembles wintry weather. You have no cold air source. If we had a stronger high to the north it would probably bring with it a bigger ice threat than anything else. With that SW to NE low track you have WAA and the 850's are going to warm. Yes inland , not a shot for u or I , but get to Sparta NJ thru 84 thru N central CT , I thnk its frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 Saying I shouldn't be allowed to post here is not attacking me? Interesting. Fair enough though I will stay on topic. PB GFI is making all the same points I would to support why I think it will be snow where I'll be. nzucker makes a good point about this not being just elevation dependent. Is it possible we start with rain until 850's crash, definitely. Based on guidance at this point despite the 12z GGEM and GFS, I still believe the 850's will crash where I'll be and we will be plenty cold to support snow in a region that is highly elevated and always colder than most of the region. Simply stating that a model is wrong and not giving any scientific or logical reasoning as to why isn't a good way to win an argument. I just checked the GEFS mean, the freezing lines hang just NW of the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 This is going to be my last post...the main problem now is placement of 850 mb low...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Simply stating that a model is wrong and not giving any scientific or logical reasoning as to why isn't a good way to win an argument. I just checked the GEFS mean, the freezing lines hang just NW of the Poconos. You are doing the same thing by discounting the 0z Euro. Hey the Euro at 12z may trend warmer but the 0z Euro is not a bogus depiction and is a viable solution. There's nothing I saw on the 0z Euro that made no meteorological sense or was absurd. Factor in the area's climate that I'll be at in the Poconos and calling for a couple inches of snow after we crash the 850's is not illogical reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 This was an obvious warm track for us even from back around the 20th. Notice how the GEFS did very well showing how there would be no Davis Strait block to prevent this from being a rainstorm here.The SE Ridge usually makes a cameo as we get closer to showtime under these circumstances. 222 hr forecast 72 hr forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 12z GFS 5 day Jan 1- 6 says the area looks to be 10C below normal for the period . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 12z GFS 5 day Jan 1- 6 says the area looks to be 10C below normal for the period . Question is what will it translate into once the storms come around? That my friend is the million dollar question that most want to know. Pattern upcoming in my opinion supports minor-moderate events and storms that are going blow up and amplify with no blocking will flood the coastal plain and inland as well if no established blocking occurs to lock the cold air in and keep the SE ridge at bay enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 Okay, 12z ECMWF. Hr 60, low pressure forming over the FL Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 Hour 72, low near eastern GA. Rain up to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 Hour 78, low over the eastern border of NC/VA. 850 and surface freezing lines up into VT/NH and far northern Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 Hr 84 low is 75 miles SE of ACY. The Poconos are below freezing aloft but the surface is displaced well NW of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 By hour 90 she is already 100 miles east of Cape Cod. Low is booking it, goes from the VA Capes to East of Cape Cod in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 What a waste of what appears to be a nice track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The Euro is very literally 33-35 F and rain for most people on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 its a tick warmer than its 0z , but 1 degree at the surface NWNJ NE , the 0 line is still running from NWNJ THRU 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 The 12z GFS at hour 84 at KABE is 36.0 per the sounding. The NAM is about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The Euro is very literally 33-35 F and rain for most people on this forum. that is disheartening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The Euro is very literally 33-35 F and rain for most people on this forum. Question for you john that indirectly has something to do with this coastal storm. Next month when we're in the ice box ( intensity to be determined ) and the cold air is not stale, correct me if im wrong but with no blocking or little at best wouldnt solutions like this still occur if there is nothing to beat down the SE ridge or lock the cold air in during coastal storms? I know our airmass is stale currently which is why it is a rainstorm for most but wouldnt a wound up coastal low still allow for some mixing along the coast even with a cold airmass in place and nothing to lock in good CAD? This has more to do with not expecting big snows next month as well until atleast sustainable blocking west-based preferably does occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The Euro is very literally 33-35 F and rain for most people on this forum. that is disheartening! But it doesn't show snow. And it doesn't seem to be creating its own cold air. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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