PB GFI Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Has Def stepped better for the interior crew . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Yes on this model. We know that the solutions can change. If the storm blows up, that will bring down colder air which will mean a colder solution. Can you expand on that ? Do you mean creating its own cold air ? Because there is very little fresh cold air to work with in front of the storm plus not having a negative NAO is probably going to signal the same type of storms in early January that we had in December except the Ocean will not be providing as much warm air to change things over as fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Think the 18z nam hi-res drank too much eggnog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Looks like a cold rainstorm to me. Antecedent airmass way too stale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 our winter in a nutshell: followed by: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 ^^^^ 37 and rain for NYC on the GFS. Just need a little more colder air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 ^^^^ 37 and rain for NYC on the GFS. Just need a little more colder air to work with. it's really not close....the setup is just not going to generate snow for anyone near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 lol No northern stream interaction. As earthlight pointed out, the setup is completely unfavorable and this system just isn't ours. Such a sick joke to look at that low track with all that QPF and know its all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 lol No northern stream interaction. As earthlight pointed out, the setup is completely unfavorable and this system just isn't ours. Such a sick joke to look at that low track with all that QPF and know its all rain. gfs_ptype_slp_ma_33.png Good track but the end result is a cold rain. Ugggh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 lol No northern stream interaction. As earthlight pointed out, the setup is completely unfavorable and this system just isn't ours. Such a sick joke to look at that low track with all that QPF and know its all rain. gfs_ptype_slp_ma_33.png The synoptic. It burnnnssss!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 ^^^^ 37 and rain for NYC on the GFS. Just need a little more colder air to work with. dude its rain in the catskills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 How does Monday's event bode for Sullivan County 100 miles NW of NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 dude its rain in the catskills Yes, a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Is there anyway the models are not handling this appropriately? Since I am a weeny, it doesn't make sense that a storm like that in late December doesn't have cold air, all the way up through the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The only way that happen is if the big northern stream energy associated with the polar vortex digs farther south and captures the southern stream vort -- in which case it would get tugged inland anyway. This is the kind of setup where you need high latitude blocking to increase your chances of getting snow -- and we don't have any. Agree. Sucks, but the only real chance I see for a widespread snow event here is a few inch clipper type system in this pattern (which is still a nice snow event in a cold pattern) . A snow to rain system though is possible too, and obviously well inland the odds increase for a bigger snow system. We risk suppression in the kind of pattern shown in the long range, and a more amped system pumps the SE ridge too much. We really need more resistance NE of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Yes, a cold rain. Is there ever really a warm rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Is there ever really a warm rain? Yes, in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Holy cow. Will u guys stop being girls. The euro is colder n and w this was never a coastal threat. If u r on the coast stop looking. Away from the coast. Inland. Get it thru ur skulls. Guys in brklyn lookin to see if it's Gona snow is insane. Ready last time. Inland only shot. Watch the euro. If it's warm ok. But if ur on the coast pls don't post on it.Damn I checked gfs soundings for Sussex at 96 hr and wow it was colder than I thought . Still rain But surface at 1.1 . Warmest layer was 1.7. Def colder than the maps looked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Damn I checked gfs soundings for Sussex at 96 hr and wow it was colder than I thought . Still rain But surface at 1.1 . Warmest layer was 1.7. Def colder than the maps looked The Euro and Canadian are colder from Sparta NJ through Orange and Putnam counties NY into N CT . John has a point , there isn't a lot of N stream interaction But in those spots I mentioned the 12z Euro s 850 s are 0 , the surface is 33 the low is closed and goes from Hatteras at 1005 - to Cape Cod and 990 within 24 hours while they are on a W wind . That's just not a R signal for me there . The GFS is a little warmer , but If the Euro is a torch then ok . But this isn't a Brooklyn , Colts Neck , Laurel Hollow threat , I always confined it to those areas , lets see what happens . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Euro seems colder than 12z NW can see some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 0Z EURO As this is goin on at 850 under those Minus 1`s the surface temps are at 32 and there`s a half an inch of liquid falling NWNJ , Northeast thru Rockland county into North Central CT In those areas I think it snows . The 0 line is down thru N Bergen county Northeast thru Westchester thru C CTthe surface is 33 . NYC is Plus 1-2 at 35 ( I think that's too cold ) . And " If " this were to verify its a WWA for the far Northern counties . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Holy cow. Will u guys stop being girls. The euro is colder n and w this was never a coastal threat. If u r on the coast stop looking. Away from the coast. Inland. Get it thru ur skulls. Guys in brklyn lookin to see if it's Gona snow is insane. Ready last time. Inland only shot. Watch the euro. If it's warm ok. But if ur on the coast pls don't post on it. The epic cold that has been forecast to start the new year makes everyone believe the cold air should be readily available for this storm lol. I know this isnt a great setup for anybody even close to coast but im fine with that ill wait for an all snow event instead of taint from a storm. Dont worry people more snow chances are coming as we head into january just sit tight and dont worry about every detail a model spits out. Remember its called meteorology not modelology, they're not all perfect at any given time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 The GFS is warmer as its center is 100 miles W . The Euro likes the track from Hatteras to Cape Cod . This is what it sees NW counties . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 That would not be an inland storm...late dec with storm offshore...temps will come around in our favor...looks likes a secs What? Please explain. Will never question Storm At Sea again. This is already way more interesting than anyone else thought it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Will never question Storm At Sea again. This is already way more interesting than anyone else thought it would be. Its snow for Inland pp NOT the coast . For us on the coast our winds are SE and E , by the time they turn NE the center is too far Northeast . From 3 days ago , I said the precip field was to tight and a bombing SLP heading NE should make it Snow N and W .Trust me , I brought this up I would love nothing more than to see it snow IMBY , just cant lock the cold air in on the coastal plain . Not our storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Its snow for Inland pp NOT the coast . For us on the coast our winds are SE and E , by the time they turn NE the center is too far Northeast . From 3 days ago , I said the precip field was to tight and a bombing SLP heading NE should make it Snow N and W .Trust me , I brought this up I would love nothing more than to see it snow IMBY , just cant lock the cold air in on the coastal plain . Not our storm . Oh I know it's not snow for the coast. A day ago, though, it was rain for everyone with some very resolute statements from people who should know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Oh I know it's not snow for the coast. A day ago, though, it was rain for everyone with some very resolute statements from people who should know better. I don't like the idea that the models are loosing the clipper and the Jan 4 system that follows this . I didn't so much mind missing this one . But I too will be very frustrated if they disappear and 10 days of cold yield us very little S . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Nice snow squall coming towards lower Hudson valley.. Maybe a quick dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I don't like the idea that the models are loosing the clipper and the Jan 4 system that follows this . I didn't so much mind missing this one . But I too will be very frustrated if they disappear and 10 days of cold yield us very little S . Yep, true. Especially since the amplified storms that are showing up are warm already in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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