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December Discussion Thread


IsentropicLift

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Yes on this model. We know that the solutions can change. If the storm blows up, that will bring down colder air which will mean a colder solution.

Can you expand on that ? Do you mean creating its own cold air ? Because there is very little fresh cold air to work with in front of the storm plus not having a negative NAO is probably going to signal the same type of storms in early January that we had in December except the Ocean will not be providing as much warm air to change things over as fast

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The only way that happen is if the big northern stream energy associated with the polar vortex digs farther south and captures the southern stream vort -- in which case it would get tugged inland anyway. This is the kind of setup where you need high latitude blocking to increase your chances of getting snow -- and we don't have any.

Agree. Sucks, but the only real chance I see for a widespread snow event here is a few inch clipper type system in this pattern (which is still a nice snow event in a cold pattern) . A snow to rain system though is possible too, and obviously well inland the odds increase for a bigger snow system. We risk suppression in the kind of pattern shown in the long range, and a more amped system pumps the SE ridge too much. We really need more resistance NE of us.

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Holy cow. Will u guys stop being girls. The euro is colder n and w this was never a coastal threat. If u r on the coast stop looking. Away from the coast. Inland. Get it thru ur skulls. Guys in brklyn lookin to see if it's Gona snow is insane. Ready last time. Inland only shot. Watch the euro. If it's warm ok. But if ur on the coast pls don't post on it.

Damn I checked gfs soundings for Sussex at 96 hr and wow it was colder than I thought . Still rain But surface at 1.1 . Warmest layer was 1.7. Def colder than the maps looked
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Damn I checked gfs soundings for Sussex at 96 hr and wow it was colder than I thought . Still rain But surface at 1.1 . Warmest layer was 1.7. Def colder than the maps looked

The Euro and Canadian are colder from Sparta NJ through Orange and Putnam counties  NY into N CT .  John has a point , there isn't a lot of N stream interaction

But in those spots I mentioned the 12z Euro s  850 s are 0 , the surface is 33 the low is closed and goes  from Hatteras at 1005 - to  Cape Cod and 990 within 24 hours while  they are on a W wind .  That's just not a R signal for me there .  The GFS is a little warmer , but If the Euro is a torch then ok .

But this isn't a Brooklyn , Colts Neck , Laurel Hollow threat , I always confined it to those areas , lets see what happens .

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ecmwf_t850_neng_17.png

0Z EURO

As this is goin on at 850 under those Minus 1`s the surface temps are at 32 and there`s a half an inch of liquid falling

NWNJ Northeast  thru Rockland county into North Central CT  In those areas I think it snows .

The 0 line is down thru N Bergen county Northeast thru Westchester thru C CTthe surface is 33 .

 

NYC is Plus 1-2  at 35 ( I think that's too cold ) . And  " If "  this were to verify its a WWA for the far Northern counties .

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Holy cow. Will u guys stop being girls. The euro is colder n and w this was never a coastal threat. If u r on the coast stop looking. Away from the coast. Inland. Get it thru ur skulls. Guys in brklyn lookin to see if it's Gona snow is insane. Ready last time. Inland only shot. Watch the euro. If it's warm ok. But if ur on the coast pls don't post on it.

The epic cold that has been forecast to start the new year makes everyone believe the cold air should be readily available for this storm lol. I know this isnt a great setup for anybody even close to coast but im fine with that ill wait for an all snow event instead of taint from a storm. Dont worry people more snow chances are coming as we head into january just sit tight and dont worry about every detail a model spits out. Remember its called meteorology not modelology, they're not all perfect at any given time

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Will never question Storm At Sea again. :) This is already way more interesting than anyone else thought it would be.

Its snow for Inland pp NOT the coast .  For us on the coast our winds are SE and E , by the time they turn NE the center is too far Northeast .

From 3 days ago , I said the precip field was to tight and a bombing SLP heading NE should make it Snow N and W .Trust me , I brought this up

I would love nothing more than to see it snow IMBY , just cant lock the cold air in on the coastal plain . Not our storm .

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Its snow for Inland pp NOT the coast .  For us on the coast our winds are SE and E , by the time they turn NE the center is too far Northeast .

From 3 days ago , I said the precip field was to tight and a bombing SLP heading NE should make it Snow N and W .Trust me , I brought this up

I would love nothing more than to see it snow IMBY , just cant lock the cold air in on the coastal plain . Not our storm .

Oh I know it's not snow for the coast. A day ago, though, it was rain for everyone with some very resolute statements from people who should know better.

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Oh I know it's not snow for the coast. A day ago, though, it was rain for everyone with some very resolute statements from people who should know better.

I don't like the idea that the models are loosing the clipper and the Jan 4 system that follows this . I didn't so much mind missing this one .

But I too will be very frustrated if they disappear and 10 days of cold yield us very little S .

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I don't like the idea that the models are loosing the clipper and the Jan 4 system that follows this . I didn't so much mind missing this one .

But I too will be very frustrated if they disappear and 10 days of cold yield us very little S .

Yep, true. Especially since the amplified storms that are showing up are warm already in the long range.

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