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December Discussion Thread


IsentropicLift

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There's going to be cold, but the PV orientation still looks crappy...Don't see KU storm potential in the next 2 weeks yet.

Yea PV orientation is such that is squashes any potential barclonic zone in or just to the west of our area...but the pattern would support some pretty intense clippers that could be more than just stat padders. IMO, lots of potential in early January for consistent snowcover and cold.
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Yea PV orientation is such that is squashes any potential barclonic zone in or just to the west of our area...but the pattern would support some pretty intense clippers that could be more than just stat padders. IMO, lots of potential in early January for consistent snowcover and cold.

 

+1 exactly. 

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0z NAM. Prints out an inch of snow at hour 57 through the I 80 corridor Xmas morning and a coating down in and through the 5 boroughs.

The models have been all over the place w this. But at the very least snow showers still possible early in the day for someone on the board.

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I'm surprised at the lack of talk about how close we are to having a nice event on Christmas. Nam and gfs just now picking up on SLP development. It would not shock me if some LI folks get in on this.

SLP development where on GFS ? 0Z GFS shows nothing - NAM shows .09 total which would equal less then 1 inch

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR

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I'm surprised at the lack of talk about how close we are to having a nice event on Christmas. Nam and gfs just now picking up on SLP development. It would not shock me if some LI folks get in on this.

The 0Z euro puts down a coating of snow from I80 into the city and onto Long Island Xmas Eve

So after 70 degrees , record highs and a total pre Xmas snow melt. Your lawn may get covered Xmas morning. I agree it would

be great if that happens.

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hires_snow_depth_neng_46.png
I hope this works . The 6z NAM and the 0z Euro see the small stripe in the same spot . So now that the models have the area down ,

lets hope inside 24 hours we can make it a tad wetter . It would be nice to actually coat the ground .

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eps_t850_c_noram_49.png

Time to buy orange juice futures if that's right .

That is just a DUMP of frigid air into the eastern CONUS. That would be -15 - -20 departures right there even more. Id be SHOCKED if these teleconnectors forecasts held serve and we didnt get atleast a moderate event on the east coast come january. The setup isnt really KU worthy but nonetheless can deliver a nice snowstorm

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The ensemble mean still has the PV pretty far north into Canada at 240 so that looks way overdone. I am willing to

bet that this is a glancing blow scenario with NYC not getting any lower than the teens with a peak daily temperature

departure of -8 to -13. We would need to see a stronger polar block develop than the models are currently

indicating to get a scenario like that control. The NAEFS hold the strongest departure over SE Canada.

 

attachicon.gifTemperature32at32850hPa_North32America_240.gif

 

attachicon.gif2013122300_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png

I will take it , lock that off for 2 weeks and I will take my chances . With the blocking over the top

back through the Pacific means  the PV may be in that general area for 10 days .

The control does have an EC snowstorm that weekend .So if the cold looks overdone on the ensembles  , lets hope its got the surface right .

 

The one thing I will add , the Euro ensembles keep getting colder as we get closer .If I was gona bet , its not a glancing blow , but a full

on assault of the cold . Don't let the warm up fool you, the cold that is coming means business and there could be a 7 to 10 day stretch averaging close to 10 below

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That is just a DUMP of frigid air into the eastern CONUS. That would be -15 - -20 departures right there even more. Id be SHOCKED if these teleconnectors forecasts held serve and we didnt get atleast a moderate event on the east coast come january. The setup isnt really KU worthy but nonetheless can deliver a nice snowstorm

That particular run shows it , but Im just buying the cold pattern during that time  .

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That particular run shows it , but Im just buying the cold pattern during that time .

Always level headed and not aiming for the long ball as usual. I actually believe that this probably thus far the best setup overall this winter. Would love to see as we get close to this impendig cold snap how much the STJ can interact and maybe juice up some systems as they head towards the east coast, but im thinking that is going to have to do more with how suppresive the PV is as it heads towards SE canada towards january

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SLP development where on GFS ? 0Z GFS shows nothing - NAM shows .09 total which would equal less then 1 inch

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR

Can you please just try to be a little less argumentative? He said CLOSE, and even mentioned LI, and you try to prove him wrong by showing a single run text output from one spot? He isnt discussing what it showed, he is discussing the possibility of that being slightly better than its current depiction.

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This is not a signifiacnt system , its not  " weaker , "  the most any model printed out was an inch of snow in NW NJ , lowere hudson valley and possibley a coating in and around the city ( and that was the most any model showed ) and thats what the NAM just showed .

 

The only difference in the last 3 days , has been the placement of the snow showers .

The fact that 2 days after CPK hit 70 - on Christmas eve theres a chance that places in and around the city could see a coating

is all it is , thats all it ever was , and thats what one should hope for ..

its christmas , it would be a nice touch .

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This is not a signifiacnt system , its not  " weaker , "  the most any model printed out was an inch of snow in NW NJ , lowere hudson valley and possibley a coating in and around the city ( and that was the most any model showed ) and thats what the NAM just showed .

 

The only difference in the last 3 days , has been the placement of the snow showers .

The fact that 2 days after CPK hit 70 - on Christmas eve theres a chance that places in and around the city could see a coating

is all it is , thats all it ever was , and thats what one should hope for ..

its christmas , it would be a nice touch .

 

Well, it's slightly better for LI with .10 stripe showing for W Suffolk.. not expecting an inch but snow showers on Christmas morning is still nice!! :snowwindow:

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A coating will be nice :)

Only because it has a chance of giving us a white Christmas. Other than that it's a nuisance. Hopefully whatever falls does so during the night on Christmas Eve. Surprisingly we still have a few small snow piles left in the parking lots up this way, but I watched as my 6"+ snowpack vaporized on Saturday night. I'm not so sure the snow will want to stick right away since the ground has had a chance to thaw.

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12/22 High/Low/Departure.....Monthly Departure

NYC: 71/61/+30.....+0.5

EWR: 71/57/+29.....-0.4

LGA: 69/53/+25........-0.8

JFK: 64/50/+21........-0.3

What a heck of a turn around, but all stations will still end up below normal for December, that's how cold it's been. And out west temps are averaging 40 below normal!

I actually didn't mind this brief torch. I would rather see it now then during the real winter months of Jan and Feburary.

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What a heck of a turn around, but all stations will still end up below normal for December, that's how cold it's been. And out west temps are averaging 40 below normal!

I actually didn't mind this brief torch. I would rather see it now then during the real winter months of Jan and Feburary.

 

 

I agree and think most stations are around or greater than -1 for the month.   Its been overall cool/cold  the last 7 or 8 week once past the opening of November..    I think we continue the general trend but could see longer warmups/more than 2 or 3 days.

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Hi res NAM has been consistently putting a band of very heavy snow somewhere over us tomorrow evening between 6 and 8 or so. Last run it was over NYC, this run over extreme NE NJ into WLI....whoever get this band passing through could easily receive 1 to even 2 inches of snow in 1 hour and whiten up the ground nicely for christmas. The only thing is that only a small area will receive it

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