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December Discussion Thread


IsentropicLift

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other years with such warmth and snow in late December was 1984 and 1990...I like 1990-91 as the prime analog now...The January 11-12th 1991 storm gave us similar results as the 5" of snow that fell earlier this month that changed to rain...1984 had a snowstorm between torch's and 1990 the same...this year it's one torch but a doozy...

It's pretty obvious we're going to have some snow chances early January with the renewal of the -EPO.
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January looks like it will start off with a weaker version of the pattern that we experienced 

during late January 2013. The models are showing less AO blocking this time with cold

temperature departures that are less impressive than we saw then. The blocking this

time around will be skewed closer to the Russian side. Hopefully we can take advantage

of the cold for some wintry events here. NAEFS are showing a nice cold signal initially

focused over the Lakes and Upper Midwest and Southern Canada.

 

Forecast weaker more Russian based blocking this time

 

attachicon.giff240.gif

 

Late January 2013 strong AO drop and 350 meter anomalies

 

attachicon.gif13.gif

 

attachicon.gif2013122200_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png

The NAEFS probabilities look good for week 1 ,  week 2 will be much colder into the NE   , The Euro ensembles are stronger through the lakes and that impacts the NE

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The NAEFS probabilities look good for week 1 ,  week 2 will be much colder into the NE   , The Euro ensembles are stronger through the lakes and that impacts the NE

 

I like the idea of just enough of a weak block near the pole to provide the cold, but not so strong like last January to completely

suppress the storm track for a boring cold and dry.

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I like the idea of just enough of a weak block near the pole to provide the cold, but not so strong like last January to completely

suppress the storm track for a boring cold and dry.

Ive been to the  guys looking for 2 SD neg NAO values , u get whiffed , 93- 94 was fine .

I would think with that kind of pattern its good for those from the Mason Dixon line N ,  but def  wana see where the PV sets up - 200 miles makes

or breaks the 2 week period

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Ive been to the guys looking for 2 SD neg NAO values , u get whiffed , 93- 94 was fine .

I would think with that kind of pattern its good for those from the Mason Dixon line N , but def wana see where the PV sets up - 200 miles makes

or breaks the 2 week period

Bingo! Because despite if we get frigid air mass that will be -15-20 below average if they're is no snow it will be a waste of cold air. Nothing worse than sunny and 10 degrees, it stings on inside as much as the outside. Away from the banter, atleast beginning of january does continue to show steps towards getting snow should a storm develop while the cold air is entrenched in our area, fingers crossed

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Bingo! Because despite if we get frigid air mass that will be -15-20 below average if they're is no snow it will be a waste of cold air. Nothing worse than sunny and 10 degrees, it stings on inside as much as the outside. Away from the banter, atleast beginning of january does continue to show steps towards getting snow should a storm develop while the cold air is entrenched in our area, fingers crossed

This upcoming week is likely to be cold and dry. Week 2 is where I think it gets interesting there's a huge PV that's funnels cold air south thru the area and a SE ridge that should take systems NE so it's Tues and beyond for cold for me and next week and beyond for winter wx for me

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Really cold air and lots of storm chances on the GFS.

snow - here is the link to it

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013122212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html

 

Also moving in the right direction with all the indicies - HOPEFULLY this will not be another as we get closer the indicies back off from a more favorable solution this has happened in the last couple of months........

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

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Christmas may stay in the upper 20's for an afternoon high as CAA really cranks up with dews

falling to around 0. It will be really funny if NYC can't close the deal on a low in teens this month.

Our best CAA so far this season always seems to happen during the day.

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC   GFS MOS GUIDANCE   12/22/2013  1800 UTC                       DT /DEC  23                  /DEC  24                /DEC  25        HR   00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18  N/X              55          57          33          39       22     TMP  62 62 60 58 56 56 54 52 48 43 39 36 33 35 37 36 33 29 26 22 30  DPT  56 57 56 53 50 50 47 42 35 28 25 21 18 15 12 11  9  6  5  3 -1 
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