Absolute Humidity Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Strange that today, being the darkest day of year, we near 70 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 other years with such warmth and snow in late December was 1984 and 1990...I like 1990-91 as the prime analog now...The January 11-12th 1991 storm gave us similar results as the 5" of snow that fell earlier this month that changed to rain...1984 had a snowstorm between torch's and 1990 the same...this year it's one torch but a doozy...It's pretty obvious we're going to have some snow chances early January with the renewal of the -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The setup from 500-850 is very good for inverted trof formation with very light winds within the trof at all layers but as always who the hell knows where its going to setup Exactly, GFS has it over DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Here we go... That looks pretty promising... We'll see how that verifies though as we near closer to january 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Exactly, GFS has it over DC. Both the 6z GFS and 6z NAM paint a small stripe through CNJ Xmas AM . Prob just snow showers , but I will take it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 January looks like it will start off with a weaker version of the pattern that we experienced during late January 2013. The models are showing less AO blocking this time with cold temperature departures that are less impressive than we saw then. The blocking this time around will be skewed closer to the Russian side. Hopefully we can take advantage of the cold for some wintry events here. NAEFS are showing a nice cold signal initially focused over the Lakes and Upper Midwest and Southern Canada. Forecast weaker more Russian based blocking this time f240.gif Late January 2013 strong AO drop and 350 meter anomalies 13.gif 2013122200_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png The NAEFS probabilities look good for week 1 , week 2 will be much colder into the NE , The Euro ensembles are stronger through the lakes and that impacts the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 If this were to verify , it would easily be the coldest 5 day period throughout the forecast area this winter .Week 2 could turn really nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The NAEFS probabilities look good for week 1 , week 2 will be much colder into the NE , The Euro ensembles are stronger through the lakes and that impacts the NE I like the idea of just enough of a weak block near the pole to provide the cold, but not so strong like last January to completely suppress the storm track for a boring cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 I like the idea of just enough of a weak block near the pole to provide the cold, but not so strong like last January to completely suppress the storm track for a boring cold and dry. Ive been to the guys looking for 2 SD neg NAO values , u get whiffed , 93- 94 was fine . I would think with that kind of pattern its good for those from the Mason Dixon line N , but def wana see where the PV sets up - 200 miles makes or breaks the 2 week period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Ive been to the guys looking for 2 SD neg NAO values , u get whiffed , 93- 94 was fine . I would think with that kind of pattern its good for those from the Mason Dixon line N , but def wana see where the PV sets up - 200 miles makes or breaks the 2 week period Bingo! Because despite if we get frigid air mass that will be -15-20 below average if they're is no snow it will be a waste of cold air. Nothing worse than sunny and 10 degrees, it stings on inside as much as the outside. Away from the banter, atleast beginning of january does continue to show steps towards getting snow should a storm develop while the cold air is entrenched in our area, fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Bingo! Because despite if we get frigid air mass that will be -15-20 below average if they're is no snow it will be a waste of cold air. Nothing worse than sunny and 10 degrees, it stings on inside as much as the outside. Away from the banter, atleast beginning of january does continue to show steps towards getting snow should a storm develop while the cold air is entrenched in our area, fingers crossed This upcoming week is likely to be cold and dry. Week 2 is where I think it gets interesting there's a huge PV that's funnels cold air south thru the area and a SE ridge that should take systems NE so it's Tues and beyond for cold for me and next week and beyond for winter wx for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 Week two looks favorable for a DC to Philly snow event. With the PV dropping down fighting the SE ridge the Mid-Atlantic should be the battleground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 From 70 degrees today to 30 degrees on Wednesday. Wow, what a drop in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 CPC's outlook for days 8-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 It's pretty obvious we're going to have some snow chances early January with the renewal of the -EPO. not only that we will be enjoying the best of all worlds - as the AO is forecasted to go negative - the NAO negative and the PNA positive by early Jan http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Any storms at all showing up on GFS? Rossi Yes. A couple. Regardless if they show up now, the upcoming pattern will give us a very good opportunity to score at least a SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Yes. A couple. Regardless if they show up now, the upcoming pattern will give us a very good opportunity to score at least a SECS. Really cold air and lots of storm chances on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Really cold air and lots of storm chances on the GFS. snow - here is the link to it http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013122212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html Also moving in the right direction with all the indicies - HOPEFULLY this will not be another as we get closer the indicies back off from a more favorable solution this has happened in the last couple of months........ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 The cmc, euro and gfs all agree on a -epo, +pna, -ao pattern heading towards the new year. Plenty of cold air will be in place, and a trough in the east opens up storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 This week should b below normal but we will step down into a really cold week 2 to go along with a few systems . So for me week 2 is the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Looks very quiet right into the new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Pretty much have to like the pattern going forward, unless you're looking for warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Pretty much have to like the pattern going forward, unless you're looking for warmth or precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Christmas may stay in the upper 20's for an afternoon high as CAA really cranks up with dews falling to around 0. It will be really funny if NYC can't close the deal on a low in teens this month. Our best CAA so far this season always seems to happen during the day. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFS MOS GUIDANCE 12/22/2013 1800 UTC DT /DEC 23 /DEC 24 /DEC 25 HR 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18 N/X 55 57 33 39 22 TMP 62 62 60 58 56 56 54 52 48 43 39 36 33 35 37 36 33 29 26 22 30 DPT 56 57 56 53 50 50 47 42 35 28 25 21 18 15 12 11 9 6 5 3 -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 or precip Sure, it could very well be dry. But it can't snow without cold air, and it looks like at least that is on the way. We'll see about any threats that may come along being that this is all still very far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 With all the ups and downs with temps this month we'll probobly finish up close to normal even though their were few days that were actually normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 There's going to be cold, but the PV orientation still looks crappy...Don't see KU storm potential in the next 2 weeks yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 LOL at the one ensemble member dipping the AO to nearly -6...I'm not exactly sure of the lowest value ever but I think its -5.2 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 LOL at the one ensemble member dipping the AO to nearly -6...I'm not exactly sure of the lowest value ever but I think its -5.2 or so it's -7 something in January 1977 I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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