Allsnow Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 We are going to have some really cold air to start january….helllo 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 We are going to have some really cold air to start january….helllo 94 1994....2004....2014? I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Looks like p-type issues at the coast. Taint/rain for me on LI, joy haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 That is better than previous run by a bit isn't it? I am working and briefly checking in on next week when I get a minute. Seems like there is a steady, but slow, trend that improves snow chances next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 That is better than previous run by a bit isn't it? I am working and briefly checking in on next week when I get a minute. Seems like there is a steady, but slow, trend that improves snow chances next week. They are baby steps , non of these models other than the Canadian accumulate , but the trend is west . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The Euro weeklies never develop the blocking enough the next few weeks to drive the PV far enough south for anything more than just some vanilla cold here. Notice how the lower than normal heights hang out near Greenland for the Next 2 weeks. Weeks 3 and 4 are lower skill, so I just like to look at weeks 1-2. http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2013/12/19/ecmwf-monthly-run-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 HPC Dec 26 - 28th East Coast Storm http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The Euro weeklies never develop the blocking enough the next few weeks to drive the PV far enough south for anything more than just some vanilla cold here. Notice how the lower than normal heights hang out near Greenland for the Next 2 weeks. Weeks 3 and 4 are lower skill, so I just like to look at weeks 1-2. http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2013/12/19/ecmwf-monthly-run-2/ They have been horrid since November. They have missed all this cold in the last 6 weeks they've done a poor job in the pattern. EW were always my go to. The yr I've ignored them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 HPC Dec 26 - 28th East Coast Storm http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif What's the precip type though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 They have been horrid since November. They have missed all this cold in the last 6 weeks they've done a poor job in the pattern. EW were always my go to. The yr I've ignored them They have done very well week 1-2 and agree with the ensemble mean. A few days of -5 to -10 departures through January 5th is no big deal. They are really not meant to be used past week 1-2. The GFS has had a big cold bias recently with several old runs showing teens for NYC recently which never verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 What's the precip type though? This has virtually no chance of being an accumulating snow event for anyone outside of extreme northeastern New England. Those free maps are deceiving. The freezing line doesn't clear the coast on the 18z NAM until hr 84 and by then the precip is over. Where it is cold enough for some snow, ie NE PA, it's nothing more than a light dusting. A track closer to the coast is just going to yield more rain. Things would really have to change and in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 They have done very well week 1-2 and agree with the ensemble mean at day 10. A few days of -5 to -10 departures through January 5th is no big deal. I never thought I would say this but I think gfs ensembles have handled this overall pattern the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 This has virtually no chance of being an accumulating snow event for anyone outside of extreme northeastern New England. Those free maps are deceiving. The freezing line doesn't clear the coast on the 18z NAM until hr 84 and by then the precip is over. Where it is cold enough for some snow, ie NE PA, it's nothing more than a light dusting. Dude 84 hrs is Dec 24 th. He's talking next Thrs fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Dude 84 hrs is Dec 24 th. He's talking next Thrs fri Well someone posted the NAM at hour 84 before showing what would appear to be some light snow, and I'm pointing out that the surface is too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Well someone posted the NAM at hour 84 before showing what would appear to be some light snow, and I'm pointing out that the surface is too warm. And if u read further u will see I say non of these models show accumulating snow but now the NAM Jma Canadian are showing the ridge flexing. And the gfs and Euro have snow showers into the area. Hence the heading baby steps. The neg posted what the Euro sees for the 27th 2 different storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I never thought I would say this but I think gfs ensembles have handled this overall pattern the best The ensembles are doing pretty well with the 500 mb teleconnection patterns . But I would still rank them a notch behind the Euro ensemble means. We need at least some east based blocking to get the PV displaced far enough south for colder weather to lock in starting in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The ensembles are doing pretty well with the 500 mb teleconnection patterns . But I would still rank them a notch behind the Euro ensemble means. We need at least some east based blocking to get the PV displaced far enough south for colder weather to lock in starting in January. Didn't see euro ens. Are they as cold as the gfs ens day 7 thru 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Didn't see euro ens. Are they as cold as the gfs ens day 7 thru 15 Euro ensembles have rain on the 27th. Then they are cold and very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Euro ensembles have rain on the 27th. Then they are cold and very dry. Good as long as they are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Good as long as they are cold. They aren't as cold as what we saw last week. And as we saw last week cold patterns don't always yield pure snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 They aren't as cold as what we saw last week. And as we saw last week cold patterns don't always yield pure snow storms. no -NAO or -AO will do that to you. its allowing the SE ridge to flex its muscles with little resistance with amplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 This signal has been growing over the past few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 What's the precip type though? thats the $ 64,000 question - stay tuned for details............. ( this is reply to Dec 26 -28 event precip ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I would sign up for that little stripe right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Although there were some height rises near Greenland in 2009, the NAO was actually dead on neutral in January 2009, -0.001, and the AO was positive. However, the -EPO and +PNA drove the cold regime. In order to get a cold period on the level of January 1994, we need the AO negative too. But on the level of January 2009, a good Pacific/Western US pattern with a bit of height rises near Greenland would be sufficient. January 2004 was +PNA/-AO/-NAO, so everything favorable essentially for severe cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 amazing in between model runs you can here the tumbleweeds in here. this 24/25th threat Is slowly making baby steps to giving us all a white Christmas. cautiously optomisitc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Fog potential tomorrow? Mild humid air, some snowpack, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Fog potential tomorrow? Mild humid air, some snowpack, etc. what snowpack? lol I have brown grass and puddles on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 what snowpack? lol I have brown grass and puddles on LI Still several inches..little melting so far in shaded areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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