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December Discussion Thread


IsentropicLift

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That is better than previous run by a bit isn't it?  I am working and briefly checking in on next week when I get a minute.  Seems like there is a steady, but slow, trend that improves snow chances next week.

They are baby steps , non of these models other than the Canadian accumulate , but the trend is west .

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The Euro weeklies never develop the blocking enough the next few weeks 

to drive the PV far enough south for anything more than just some vanilla 

cold here. Notice how the lower than normal heights hang out near 

Greenland for the Next 2 weeks. Weeks 3 and 4 are lower skill, so

I just like to look at weeks 1-2.

 

http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2013/12/19/ecmwf-monthly-run-2/

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The Euro weeklies never develop the blocking enough the next few weeks 

to drive the PV far enough south for anything more than just some vanilla 

cold here. Notice how the lower than normal heights hang out near 

Greenland for the Next 2 weeks. Weeks 3 and 4 are lower skill, so

I just like to look at weeks 1-2.

 

http://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2013/12/19/ecmwf-monthly-run-2/

They have been horrid since November. They have missed all this cold in the last 6 weeks they've done a poor job in the pattern. EW were always my go to. The yr I've ignored them

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They have been horrid since November. They have missed all this cold in the last 6 weeks they've done a poor job in the pattern. EW were always my go to. The yr I've ignored them

 

They have done very well week 1-2 and agree with the ensemble mean. A few days of -5 to -10 departures through

January 5th is no big deal. They are really not meant to be used past week 1-2. The GFS has had a big cold bias

recently with several old runs showing teens for NYC recently which never verified.

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What's the precip type though?

This has virtually no chance of being an accumulating snow event for anyone outside of extreme northeastern New England. Those free maps are deceiving. The freezing line doesn't clear the coast on the 18z NAM until hr 84 and by then the precip is over. Where it is cold enough for some snow, ie NE PA, it's nothing more than a light dusting. 

 

A track closer to the coast is just going to yield more rain. Things would really have to change and in a hurry.

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They have done very well week 1-2 and agree with the ensemble mean at day 10. A few days of -5 to -10 departures through

January 5th is no big deal.

I never thought I would say this but I think gfs ensembles have handled this overall pattern the best

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This has virtually no chance of being an accumulating snow event for anyone outside of extreme northeastern New England. Those free maps are deceiving. The freezing line doesn't clear the coast on the 18z NAM until hr 84 and by then the precip is over. Where it is cold enough for some snow, ie NE PA, it's nothing more than a light dusting.

Dude 84 hrs is Dec 24 th. He's talking next Thrs fri

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Well someone posted the NAM at hour 84 before showing what would appear to be some light snow, and I'm pointing out that the surface is too warm.

And if u read further u will see I say non of these models show accumulating snow but now the NAM Jma Canadian are showing the ridge flexing. And the gfs and Euro have snow showers into the area. Hence the heading baby steps. The neg posted what the Euro sees for the 27th

2 different storms

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I never thought I would say this but I think gfs ensembles have handled this overall pattern the best

 

The ensembles are doing pretty well with the 500 mb teleconnection patterns . But I would still rank them a notch

behind the Euro ensemble means. We need at least some east based blocking to get the PV displaced

far enough south for colder weather to lock in starting in January. 

 

 

 

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The ensembles are doing pretty well with the 500 mb teleconnection patterns . But I would still rank them a notch

behind the Euro ensemble means. We need at least some east based blocking to get the PV displaced

far enough south for colder weather to lock in starting in January.

Didn't see euro ens. Are they as cold as the gfs ens day 7 thru 15
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Although there were some height rises near Greenland in 2009, the NAO was actually dead on neutral in January 2009, -0.001, and the AO was positive. However, the -EPO and +PNA drove the cold regime.

 

In order to get a cold period on the level of January 1994, we need the AO negative too. But on the level of January 2009, a good Pacific/Western US pattern with a bit of height rises near Greenland would be sufficient.

 

January 2004 was +PNA/-AO/-NAO, so everything favorable essentially for severe cold.

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